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Top analyst: Dems now favorite to take House in midterms
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/398493-top-analyst-dems-now-favorite-to-take-house-in-midterms ^ | July 24, 2018

Posted on 07/24/2018 5:13:34 AM PDT by SMGFan

University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says Democrats for the first time are the favorites to retake control of the House in this year's midterm elections. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the university's Center for Politics, said Tuesday that Democrats are now "soft favorites" for control of the chamber.

"[F]or most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP," he wrote.

The analysis comes as Sabato shifted 17 House races in favor of Democrats, with several vulnerable Republicans including Rep. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) seeing their races move from "likely Republican" to "toss-up" in the ratings.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister; Humor; Society
KEYWORDS: democrats; nobluewave; pushpolls; sabato; sabatoscrystalball
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we may refer to their inaccurate prediction of Trump losing, but many house losses are open GOP seats. other seats HRC won. Strength of candidate chosen in primary. Various sites have examined each race seat by seat. They were correct with GOP gains in 2010 and 2014 well before November.
1 posted on 07/24/2018 5:13:34 AM PDT by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan
Funny...on 11/1/16 ILLary was a hard favorite to take 400 Electoral Votes.
2 posted on 07/24/2018 5:15:46 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (You Say "White Privilege"...I Say "Protestant Work Ethic")
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To: SMGFan

Why would any sane person ever vote for a Democrat?


3 posted on 07/24/2018 5:16:44 AM PDT by Wm F Buckley Republican (?)
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To: Gay State Conservative

But they have examined each race one by one. In detail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Latest_published_predictions_for_competitive_seats


4 posted on 07/24/2018 5:16:54 AM PDT by SMGFan (Sarah Michelle Gellar is on twitter @SarahMGellar)
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To: Gay State Conservative
Too quick for me.

hillary by a landslide.

5 posted on 07/24/2018 5:18:21 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true, I have no proof, but they're true.)
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To: SMGFan

Is this the same Larry Sabado that predicted a MAJOR win for Hillary?

That’s what I thought.


6 posted on 07/24/2018 5:18:42 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: SMGFan

Is this the same Larry Sabado that predicted a MAJOR win for Hillary?

That’s what I thought.


7 posted on 07/24/2018 5:18:43 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: SMGFan

Perhaps. Has there been a study that examined accuracy of July prognostications for a November election?

I’ll pay more attention to the horse race analyses in October.

Who knows what information will drop between now and the midterms?


8 posted on 07/24/2018 5:18:45 AM PDT by HombreSecreto (The new Oldsmobiles are in early this year)
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To: SMGFan

“But they have examined each race one by one. In detail.”

Same thing was said of the 2016 elections and they weren’t even close. Their fascist political party demands no one EVER releases anything but sycophantic praise and happy news for the fascist party. Left-wingers operate that way; Communists of the USSR, Nazi, North Korea, every left-winger demands sycophantic support.


9 posted on 07/24/2018 5:20:31 AM PDT by CodeToad
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To: SMGFan

And Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance of winning the presidency...


10 posted on 07/24/2018 5:20:38 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike ("itYou can avoid reality, but you can't avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: HombreSecreto

“17 House races shift to favor Dems.”

This is serious grasping at straws.


11 posted on 07/24/2018 5:21:38 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: Gay State Conservative

Or as Super Agent Strzok, defender of America, would have you believe 100 million to zero.


12 posted on 07/24/2018 5:21:40 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike ("itYou can avoid reality, but you can't avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: SMGFan
This Larry Sabato???

ROTFLMFAO!!!


13 posted on 07/24/2018 5:21:56 AM PDT by CodeToad
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To: SMGFan
'Dems now favorite to take House in midterms' ... they've been saying this for the past year.
14 posted on 07/24/2018 5:22:02 AM PDT by Henry Cavendish
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To: SMGFan

of course they are!

They don’t even need to go out and vote- it’s such a sure thing


15 posted on 07/24/2018 5:22:38 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
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To: SMGFan

Well, after their incredible job on the 2016 election, I guess we can all trust the pollsters now and just stay home.

[insert eyeroll here]


16 posted on 07/24/2018 5:23:06 AM PDT by Pravious
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To: SMGFan; All

And the day before the election, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball prophesied 322 electoral votes for Clinton and 216 for Trump.


17 posted on 07/24/2018 5:23:36 AM PDT by areukiddingme1 (areukiddingme1 is a synonym for a Retired U.S. Navy Chief Petty Officer and tired of liberal BS.))
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To: SMGFan

Larry Sabato doubles as the My Pillow guy...

They do look a little alike....


18 posted on 07/24/2018 5:23:46 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: SMGFan

I think someone needs to start a suicide watch for Libs.......


19 posted on 07/24/2018 5:24:58 AM PDT by Lockbox
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To: SMGFan

Doc, these democrats are beyond the delusional stage. One more round of losing and the straight jackets stock will soar


20 posted on 07/24/2018 5:25:42 AM PDT by no-to-illegals (..There is no difference between liberals/rinos/moslems/illegals/lamestream media ...)
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