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House of Representative, Election Prediction
10/11/2018 | self

Posted on 10/11/2018 6:14:41 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

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To: Fai Mao

I agree. If the Rats don’t win their promised majority, they will burn a couple of American cities. Be prepared.


41 posted on 10/11/2018 7:31:29 PM PDT by doragsda
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To: SpeedyInTexas

AZ1 is Wendy Rogers. She’s up 3 over incumbent O’Halleran. Local GOP says she is “gaining.”

AZ8 is Debbie Lesko, just elected in a special election and she’s totally safe.

AZ2 is McSally’s district, and Lea Marquez-Peterson is in a battle with Ann Kirkpatrick, whom McTurd defeated in 2016. This is a fight, but local GOP just put in a lot more money into the race, so they think it’s winnable.

AZ9 likely a D hold (Enema’s district).


42 posted on 10/11/2018 7:33:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Reasonable predictions, but you mischaracterize seats that RealClearPolitics call “leaning” as “safe.”


43 posted on 10/11/2018 7:35:42 PM PDT by dangus ("The floor of Hell is paved with the skulls of bishops" -- St. Athanasius)
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To: SpeedyInTexas
It's too bad that Elizabeth Heng isn't doing better in CA-16, Jim Robinson's district.

-PJ

44 posted on 10/11/2018 7:37:59 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (The 1st Amendment gives the People the right to a free press, not CNN the right to the 1st question.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I can live with that.


45 posted on 10/11/2018 7:39:21 PM PDT by gogeo (The Repubs may not always deserve to win, but the RATs always deserve to lose.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Nice analysis. I hope you are right.


46 posted on 10/11/2018 7:40:32 PM PDT by thirdgradeteacher
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To: dangus

“Reasonable predictions, but you mischaracterize seats that RealClearPolitics call “leaning” as “safe.””

True. The intention was to try to breakdown the Tossup category. Some of the leaning districts can still move.

Republicans have been polling better after Kavanaugh, so some Lean D could move into Tossup with more polling.


47 posted on 10/11/2018 7:40:38 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: RoseofTexas
First of all, no sane person is going to say "Hey, the stock market is tanking, I think I'll vote for the Democrats...yeah, that'll fix it."

Secondly, if the "anti Trump globalists" had the power to tank the stock market, they'd have done that as soon as Trump was elected.

Instead, the stock market has been on a rocket ride since Trump was elected. We are due for a correction (totally normal) and an increase in interest rates (which prevent bubbles). I would stay invested and wait for the stocks to go back up.

48 posted on 10/11/2018 7:42:30 PM PDT by SamAdams76 ( If you are offended by what I have to say here then you can blame your parents for raising a wuss)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I don’t think the pubbies are going to lose many seats at all. May even gain one or two.

This whole thing is swinging the republican way.


49 posted on 10/11/2018 7:45:09 PM PDT by JPJones (More tariffs, less income tax.)
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To: RoseofTexas

It’s October, markets tank in October.

It’s normal. You should’ve had your stops in.

Now get ready to buy.


50 posted on 10/11/2018 7:47:51 PM PDT by JPJones (More tariffs, less income tax.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas
"Fox’s numbers are similar actually. They have 208 safe Dem seats and 200 safe Rep seats with 27 tossup.

Most of the tossups from Fox overlap with the RealClearPolitics tossups. I think if I started with the Fox numbers, I’d come up with similar results (212 to 223)???
"

That's even better! Thanks!

The flu hit early here, so I didn't really analyze the numbers.


51 posted on 10/11/2018 8:03:37 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: LS

I swear Ann Kirkpatrick is going to carpetbag her way into every district. She used to be up here in four until Gosar slaughtered her.


52 posted on 10/11/2018 8:04:04 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: SpeedyInTexas

You got access bro to NY times? I have to scroll quickly before my screen changes. I am not paying for access.


53 posted on 10/11/2018 8:13:09 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: SMGFan

Very probably - even the Republican establishment is running away from the conservative (cut spending, less federal government interference) ‘pub candidate and supporting the ‘rat - usual for the spineless stupid party.....


54 posted on 10/11/2018 8:46:52 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Ravi

Of course, I don’t pay for the Times. That would be giving money to the enemy.

There are several things you can do. For me, I use Microsoft Edge browser. From Edge, you can click on the 3 dots (…) then click “New InPrivate Window” and view any Times article from the InPrivate Window. Basically an InPrivate Window doesn’t save any cookies

https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/help/4026200/windows-browse-inprivate-in-microsoft-edge

From other browsers, you can remove cookies and review their quota of free articles each month (then repeat cycle).

From an iPhone, you can delete cookies from Safari and view the quota of free articles each month.

iPhone: Settings, Safari, Clear History and Website Data.

If you use some other browsers, research their settings to view websites without any cookies being set.

Hope this helps.


55 posted on 10/11/2018 9:02:24 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi

Same situation to view Bloomberg articles.


56 posted on 10/11/2018 9:03:26 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi

Chrome has a similar function. From main screen, click 3 dots and click New Incognito Window.


57 posted on 10/11/2018 9:08:41 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I think the Democrats shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh fiasco because they exposed their true radical nature to the American people. I think the GOP will gain between five to ten House seats and have a huge night with +6 or better in the Senate. Strictly my prediction of course.


58 posted on 10/11/2018 9:24:58 PM PDT by dowcaet
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Anyone here from tampa-st.pete? If so, thoughts on charlie crist being defeated?


59 posted on 10/11/2018 10:24:27 PM PDT by Fla.Deporable
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Pundits can't predict a damn thing.

The big unknown factor is the level of voter fraud this time around. The Dems are barking mad. When you are unhinged, you'll do anything. Fraud could be huge this time.

In summary, could be a red or a blue wave. NOBODY knows, and especially NOT the polls.

60 posted on 10/11/2018 10:31:58 PM PDT by Scooter100
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