Skip to comments.House of Representative, Election Prediction
Posted on 10/11/2018 6:14:41 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
RealClearPolitics has 204 "safe" seats for the Democrats and 199 "safe" seats for the Republicans. They have 32 seats in the tossup category.
Based on a reasonable analysis, I predict Democrats win 8 and Republicans win 24.
The totals for the next Congress being, Democrats 212 and Republicans 223. Republicans lose a total of 18 seats from 2016 high.
CA10 Dem ahead in latest poll. Limited polling. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
CA25 Mixed polling. True tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA39 Mixed polling, but Republican leading in 538 analysis. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA45 Mixed polling, Dem seems slightly ahead. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
CA48 True tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL26 Mixed polling. Republican ahead in non-partisan poll. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL27 - Rep ahead in latest polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IA3 Mixed polling, but one poll had Republican up by 16. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IL6 Non-partisan polls have Republican ahead. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IL12 Republican slightly ahead in last 5 polls. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KS2 True tossup. Cook PVI is R+10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KS3 Dem ahead in 3 out of last 4 polls. Dont think Yoder will make it (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
KY6 Lots of polling, mixed results. Cook PVI is R+9 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
ME2 Republican ahead in latest poll (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MI8 Most polling has Republican slightly ahead (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MN1 Limited polling, but a partisan poll has Republican ahead by 14 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MN8 Limited polling. 538 analysis says Republican wins (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NC9 Mixed polling but Cook PVI is R+8 (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NJ3 Mixed polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
NJ7 Mixed polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
NJ11 Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
NM2 Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NY19 Mixed polling. Tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NY22 Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
PA1 Republican ahead in polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
PA7 Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
TX7 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
TX32 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
UT4 Republican ahead in 9 straight polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA5 No polls released. Cook PVI is R+6 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA7 Mixed polling. Cook PVI is R+6 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
WA8 Lastest poll has Republican up by 10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
My prediction for next House: Democrats 212 and Republicans 223.
All these polls were before the Kavanaugh crucifixion.
That is going to make a huge difference.
NJ2 Dem definitely?
ALL polls are illegitimate; too many Republicans not contacted or refuse to answer. These same polls had the Wicked Witch easily winning. The only polls that matter will take be released on November 6.
DEmocrats gain +4 leaving only Repub Chris Smith ?
bigger Dem gain in Cal?
If your prediction holds expect Liberals to go terminally ballistic. If there is no Blue wave and they take neither the House or the Senate there will be riots.
“NJ2 Dem definitely?”
You mean, NJ 3?
Latest 4 polls: R+4, D+10, D+2, D+2
Ive got RATs at 212 as well !!!
Market will even out next week - Im going in next week
Relax futures up for tmrw
From your lips...
Yep, only Chris Smith left.
538 has the exact same conclusion. Only 1 Rep left after the election.
NJ 2 Repub LoBiondo retiring & GOP Grossman tanked. +1 Democrats Jeff Van Drew
MacArthur has a fight NJ 3
Lance has a fight NJ7
open 11 could go Dem
If there is a coordinated “media” narrative for the next 3 weeks about this and the market keeps going down, then you are correct.
Remember when Schumer the Kapo talked down the economy and the banking world I believe before the 2008 election to get Obozo elected? Yes they would gladly tank the economy in order to gain power.
They may hate Trump, but they love money. So they won't tank the money.
One big factor affecting the markets right now. Buybacks are suspended as companies prepare to announce 3rd quarter earnings. Generally 2 weeks before announcement to 3 days afterwards.
Friday starts earnings announcements with the Banks. The market will likely be on the way upward later in the month.
Oh sorry. NJ 2 is considered Likey Dem. It is already in the Dem count of 204.
If they tank the market for 26 days straight the panic will be enormous and might tank the republicans. Am I right or am I reading too much into the freaky market>> you could be right i am now in cash. just keep jim cramer away from the cameras. get kudlow out there.
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