Posted on 10/17/2018 4:32:37 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
The Florida Divsion Of Elections has just released yesterday "Mail-In Ballot voting activity...it reports as follows:
Republicnas,- 247,350 votes cast & recorded. Democrats - 207,171 votes cast & recorded. Others - 3,020 votes cast & recorded. No Party Affiliation - 96,629 votes cast & recorded.
REPUBLICANS now lead by a 40,179 vote margin. It is not looking good for Florida, Democrats across the board, at this point, but, we shall have to go on further to get a more clear picture of how patterns are developing in all groups of voters. Please note that "Early voting in person" starts within a few days.
Go, POTUS, Trump, Go, Rick Scott, Go, Ron deSantis, Go, Brian Mast, "18thFLCD". Go, Trump MEGA rallies in florida, Go, Trump, MAGA!!!
Many. Trending slightly better than 2016 in some significant counties which I will show later
Should this “Mail-In” voting pattern hold and be joined by like activity during the upcoming “Early Voting In Person” time frame....Tuesday evening, November 6, 2019 will not be enjoyable for Florida, Democrats at all. Major problem for Democrats, is Andrew Gillum, their primary chosen Democrat to run for Florida Governor. He will bring down the entire Democrat Ticket...period.
Sorry...I meant..Tuesday evening, November 6, 2018, not 2019!!!
Interesting.
All the dead people have not voted yet. This could turn around.
Trump supporters...remember Trump MEGA Rallies are scheduled this week for Missoula, Montana, Thursday, Mesa Arizona, Friday, & Elko, Nevada, Saturday. More info at “Trump For POTUS” web site on the internet. Folks turn out by the thousands or tens of thousands to support POTUS, Trump & his GOP backed Candidates running in the upcoming Mid-Term, Elections!!! Be there!!!
“All the dead people have not voted yet.”
They’re probably waiting until Oct. 31 to early vote and will come disguised as children dressed in funny costumes. Oh... they’ll vote.
I wonder how many states did the purging of their voter rolls over the last two years.
All Registered AMERICAN voters Get out and vote either by “Mail-in”, “Early Voting IN Person”, or, on Election Day, Tuesday, November 6, 2018!!! And...of course vote, only for POTUS, Donald J. Trump backed GOP, candidates.
We have a once in a lifetime opportunity of totally & politically destroying the entire “Hate America” Democrat Party!!! If not...and the Democrats gain victory...the days of the USA Nation Republic and its Freedoms, Equality, Liberties & Opportunities will disappear forever!!! And, then, welcome to George Orwell’s “1984” “Big Bother” government led by Democrat, thugs , criminals, despots, dictators, & tyrants galore!!! Your choice, Mr. & Mrs., Joe & Jane America!!!
MDSA!! Make Democrats Suffer Again.
How those 96.000+ independents break will determine the outcomes.
I can’t imagine they would break mostly for Democrats. They would need to swing 2/3+ for Democrats to overcome Republican voters. Can’t see that happening.
To a large degree, early vote harvesting does not directly add new votes to ultimate vote totals but permits election day GOTV to be more efficient. A well-organized campaign omits those who have already voted from their election day GOTV effort. This permits that crucial election day GOTV to be focused on those who have not yet voted, the pool of which has been reduced by early voting.
Moreover, in closely contested and hurricane-prone Florida, votes cast early are secure against the risk of disruption of election day voting due to a major storm. The loss of votes due to Hurricane Michael this year could tip the Senate and Governor elections by depriving the GOP of votes in its strongholds in the panhandle. I have no doubt that GOP consultants are urgently trying to calculate this effect and find ways to remedy it.
No one seems concerned about the unaffiliated number which is twice the difference between Republicans and Dems.
Good points.
1) In MANY states (OH, for example) the GOP has made a dedicated effort to get people to absentee and early vote. The reason is they found that people who vote absentee especially tend to fill out every slot on the ballot and “down-ticket” seats like commissioners and dog-catchers do much better on these ballots.
2) FL reflects this: in 2018, there were 100,000 more absentees requested than in 2016.
3) There is some truth to the cannibalizing issue. General patterns in the state where we can measure due to good reporting have the following pattern:
absentee mail-ins: Rs dominate
walk-in early vote: Ds dominate
election day: toss up, but usually slight edge to Rs
One big exception is IA, where Ds dominate absentee voting and Rs dominate election day.
The democrat election fraud will be massive this year.
Make sure they never get a chance to hold a ballot-box stuffing party.
I see zero signs for Gillum or Wille Nelson here in Florida. They’re spending gazzillions on TV time but so did Hillary to no avail.
The independents are made up a large percentage of former Tea Party folks who were sickened by the GOP’s lukewarm stance on the immigration and Obamacare.
The SC hearings no doubt cemented the Independent voters to swing hard right in the mail in vote.
I see zero signs for Gillum or Willie Nelson here in Florida. They’re spending gazzillions on TV time but so did Hillary to no avail.
The independents are made up a large percentage of former Tea Party folks who were sickened by the GOP’s lukewarm stance on the immigration and Obamacare.
The SC hearings no doubt cemented the Independent voters to swing hard right in the mail in vote.
Some county comparisons from 2016 to 2018:
2016 Broward: D-109,603 R-49,938
2018 Broward so far: D-16,740 R-9,377
2016 Collier: D-12,777 R-32,200
2018 Collier so far: D-4,771 R-13,654
2016 Hillsborough: D-78,737 R-70,030
2018 Hillsborough so far: D-20,055 R-19,488
2016 Lee: D-41,595 R-81,084
2018 Lee so far: D-13,461 D-26,368
2016 Miami-Dade: D-124,497 R-103,052
2018 Miami-Dade so far: D-12,199 R-12,872
2016 Pinellas: D-97,164 R-100,151
2018 Pinellas so far: D-18,127 R-20,194
2016 Sarasota: D-28,660 R-32,797
2018 Sarasota so far: D-10,654 R-10,571
2016 Volusia: D-26,863 R-32,001
2018 Volusia so far: D-8,378 R-10,414
These are all RETURNED ballots in these counties. Many more of course outstanding. With usual caveats of being early and cannibalization being said, most counties show slight tilt GOP way other than Sarasota which bears monitoring.
We are as of this morning up 3.13 million TOTAL Vote-by-mail ballots requested (of which 554,350 have been returned). I am still going with estimate of 55% turnout (high) which would yield approximately 7.15 million voters in Florida this year. Turnout of course might be slightly higher. My guess this year is about half the vote in Florida will come from Vote-by-mail - we will see.
And I would say that 10-25% of those Democrat ballots are voting for the Republican candidates. I doubt any more than 1% of the Republican ballots are going to the Dems.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.