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To: fireman15

They would not exist without government subsidies.

Note that the subsides are for the first 200,000 cars.
Both Tesla and GM are phasing out, gone in 2020.

New EVs have a large premium over ICE, but they are gaining.

In Europe, you can purchase a new RAY-NO (Renault) without a battery! Then rent /lease the battery!

For a commuter/city car it’s a good idea, at a lower price point. And prices are declining.

The climate stuff is BS!


17 posted on 09/16/2019 8:49:00 AM PDT by DUMBGRUNT ("The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT
For a commuter/city car it’s a good idea, at a lower price point. And prices are declining.

There are a bunch of stories out claiming that they will be cheaper than regular cars in a few more years because of declining battery prices. I am sorry to tell you that this is mostly nonsense. It is based on the expectation that previous declines in price will continue. But that is not realistic in this instance. The prices are more likely to go up than down.

Most electric car batteries have been based on the 18650 3.7v Li-ion cell. I have been buying them from Chinese retailers for over ten years for flashlights and computer battery refurbishing. The price on these have not gone down much during that time period although the quality has. The thing that has changed with these cells is that you can now but then on Amazon and not have to wait for a month.

The tested capacity of the cheaper batteries has gone way down. If you order a batch of 18650 cells with an advertised capacity of 3500mah and you get them for $3 a piece... I can pretty much guarantee that they will not have even half that capacity when you test them. The Chinese are known for wildly exaggerating their specs, and that explains a good deal of the chattering by advocates about falling battery prices and better performance. It is mostly nonsense.

The price of a quality cell is not much different than it was 10 years ago other than that they are a commodity item whose price fluctuates depending on market conditions. So people can cherry pick their data to demonstrate non-existent trends. When there is more manufacturing capacity than demand the price goes down. But since the raw materials are also commodities subject to market conditions the cost to produce the cells goes up and down also. If the price for the finished product goes down too much the manufactures lose a lot of money and go out of business.

The cells themselves have changed very little; the way they make them has changed very little. The economy of scale is unlikely to lower the price much more than it already has. So no, electric cars are not going to be cheaper to produce than normal cars any time soon despite the greenie hype. Their predictions are about as reliable as the climate models used by Al Gore 13 years ago in his block buster movie. I'm other words they lie.

36 posted on 09/16/2019 9:55:36 AM PDT by fireman15
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