Posted on 03/21/2020 8:21:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Since I published several days ago, COVD19 grips the world even more. Cases spiral upward, and fatalities accrue and gain momentum. Besides closure of all athletic events, schools, and theaters, the trauma metastasizes to restaurants and many major retailers and small businesses, now idling a giant swath of our economy. My views on this virus have not changed; in fact, only grown in intensity. Heterodox thoughts that Coronavirus remains only a flu with meager rates of mortality garnered a censure from one of the giant temples of leftist propaganda, Facebook. They removed my previous Coronavirus article as “against our community standards.” Against any empirical data to the contrary, the left must adhere to religion of apocalypse. COVD19 is a highly contagious virus, but nearly everyone in America, including right-leaning FOX news, now misleadingly paints a picture of Ebola-like danger, inferring potential millions of Americans dying.
The last time the world faced a Pandemic without a vaccine was the infamous Spanish flu epidemic beginning in January 1918, lasting nearly three full years to December 1920. Twenty to fifty million people died, and it infected an estimated 500 million or over a quarter of the planet’s population. Come to 2020, and the U.K.’s Imperial College of Medicine’s twenty-first-century modeling techniques reinforces craziness with a base case 2.2 million U.S. citizens dead and an astronomical 81 percent infection rate among the population. That’s 267 of 330 million total U.S. inhabitants. Their charts show death rates in the U.S. peaking in late June at about 50,000 per day. Worse outcomes are possible depending on how overwhelmed the hospitals become. Somehow these bleak numbers even assume some measures of self-quarantine and social distancing.
If these statistics contain grains of truth, if COVD19 is so remarkably transmittable, I raise the question of the validity of shuttering the economy for the marginal benefit of sparing 19 percent of the population from this virus. Conduct a risk-reward analysis and compare whether millions of lost jobs, countless business failures, and one trillion in government aid and stimulus against uncertain benefits of current policy. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s soberly says possible twenty percent unemployment rivaling the Great Depression.
What began as a middling medical crisis amid an environment of soaring consumer confidence and fifty-year lows in unemployment, rapidly morphs into potential economic cataclysm, a small pimple becoming a tumor, now a potential existential crisis nastier than 2008. Recession or worse now appears unavoidable. An entirely manmade disaster engendered by constantly reinforced media panic. Parsing the numbers with a sober vision causes me to question orthodox dogma.
Official reported infection and death rates are steepening in both America and Europe. In four days, the U.S. has seen a spike to 13,783 cases (almost a 300 percent jump) with 174 deaths or only 42 per million people, and 1.6 percent mortality. Although unfortunate, quite minuscule when mirrored next to an average of over 250,000 daily seasonal flu cases and the associated average 213 daily deaths. (based on the midpoint of CDC estimates and a five-month flu season. 38.5mm/150 days=256,666 per day 32,000 deaths/150 days=213d/per day)
Ohio, which noted 26 official cases several days ago, has rocketed up to 116 recorded illnesses, on 11.65 million inhabitants, or 10 cases per million. Over six days ago, Ohio’s health officials confidently announced there were “at least” 100,000 undiagnosed Coronavirus cases and doubling every six days. Therefore we now have more than 200,000 disease-ridden Ohio citizens running amuck. Yet the state shows not one single death for the press to trumpet. Governor Mike DeWine now, mercifully, in a bold stroke, ordered the closure of tattoo parlors, which should radically slow disease progression. In this same article comes an out of thin air statement, “It’s estimated that 2.2 million Americans would have died if nothing was done about the virus.” No source, no explanation, just uncorroborated hyperbole; irresponsible doesn’t begin to describe it.
If there does exist over 200,000 Ohio infections, then that calculates to over 5.6 million total U.S. (330 /11.65mm=28.33 x 200,000=5.66mm), and remember Ohio announces an official infection rate only 10per million inhabitants yet the national average has climbed to 42 per million. A more correct extrapolation would yield a prediction over four times the 5.6 million.
The hinge of my thesis hangs on the real number of coronavirus infections in America being exponentially higher than officially reported data. All across our country, municipal governments expect local infection rates of 50, 60, or 70 percent. Houston hospitals brace for 50 percent of a metro population of 7.5 million. Perspective: The entire state of Texas, out of 29.5 million (7.6 per million), reports 229 cases with three dead or a rate of a little more than one-tenth of one percent. If medical experts are even close in their prognostications, current cases must be exponentially higher.
Assuming the pandemic lasts eight months and using CDC estimates of 214 million cases or 65 percent of the population implies an average of 900,000 cases a day. Using the Imperial College 81 percent American infection estimates means over 1.1 million cases a day. Even as the infection curve drastically steepens, official daily new U.S. contaminations are 3 to 4,000. Imagine the panic every flu season if every morning, a chart posted the hundreds of thousands of new infections. Then imagine how many flu cases would occur without a vaccine.
Obvious to me, because of limited testing capabilities, and that so many stricken with COVD19 experience a mild or even asymptomatic response, hundreds of thousands or millions of infections remain unreported. Many also recover within a few days. If even only a million cases exist, and America has 176 deaths, that translates to current mortality of fewer than two one-hundredths of one percent or about a fifth the generally accepted rate of one-tenth of a percent for the seasonal flu. Statistics also lean heavily to the elderly and those in some way immunocompromised at the highest risk. Among the 3,405 Italian deaths, not one has been under 30.
Though Coronavirus indisputably has proven extremely contagious, why suffocate an entire economy with a very high probability of infinitesimal rates of mortality? According to the CDC, seasonal flu annually kills 650,000. As I publish, the worldwide meter will eclipse the 10,000 threshold.
The Deep State recently published a one hundred page report sure to conjure more fear and panic, anticipating an eighteen-month pandemic, complete with warnings of massive supply shortages and “stress” to the nation’s medical facilities. Why should America experience a prolonged journey before conquering Coronavirus? Over the past four days, China’s active cases have decreased from around 10,000 to a current level of 7,263. New cases have been zero in two of the last five days. South Korea also shows active infections decreasing over the past eight days. The time it took both of these countries to control this virus and “flatten the curve,” has been less than ten weeks. Though the veracity of China must be questioned, all Apple stores and 90 percent of Starbucks have reopened, including some in virus epicenter Wuhan. Those two companies exemplify integrity, and would not endanger workers. Traffic levels, pollution, coal usage all show increase. China reopens for business, making it very unlikely America will have future supply chain disruptions.
In a then sign of leadership, in the depths of the 1932 depression, FDR memorably and loudly proclaimed: “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.” Our President preaches calm, and leftist media lambasts him as a lackadaisical disconnected leader. Early in this crisis on January 31, he shuttered American borders with China and got decried as a racist, and Joe Biden condescendingly labeled the move “hysterical xenophobia.” Now comes a media-induced frenzy threatens to topple our economy. I believe liberals much prefer depression and the unimaginable economic pain and concurrent social displacement to four more years of Donald Trump.
Conclusions:
COVD19 infections are far more widespread than official statistics report
As a result of perhaps millions of unreported cases with mild or asymptomatic progression, the fatality rates are much lower than propagated.
The low fatality rate suggests extreme projections of millions of Americans dying overblown, causing needless fear and panic. So far, those under 30 have a greater likelihood of dying via a bolt of lightning.
America should selectively reopen the economy, starting with restaurants and bars and social clubs, as well as the major retailing chains.
Coronavirus appears at least four times as contagious as seasonal flu. The elderly and infirm are most at risk and should continue to self-isolate, and young people must be extra vigilant in their proximity.
Data suggests younger people with no complications have low mortality risk. Everyone must look at the statistics, and so far, at least, note that the infection rate for the American seasonal flu stands at about 12,000 per million versus Coronavirus infections of 42 per million.
Keep perspective, and don’t panic. No one is getting out of here alive. Ultimately, something is going to get every one of us.
So, is America being played?
South Korea has basically beaten this virus with none of the draconian measures of Italy or America.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship... basically a floating petri dish of old people...had about a 20% infection rate and seven deaths (all elderly) out of 3,700 passengers.
A death rate not even on par with the flu.
RE: South Korea has basically beaten this virus with none of the draconian measures of Italy or America.
Neither did Taiwan or Singapore, both countries that have successfully controlled it.
The communist-controlled Chinese Monica Media was part of the bioweapon attack plan. Nobody is gonna get anything positive out of these traitorous azzholes....only more fear-mongering and panic as directed by their Chinese masters.
EDIT TO ADD:
And I DELIBERATELY associated Taiwan with the word “country” ( let the Chicoms chew on that ).
Could all this talk about flu death rates lead the government to place yearly quarantines and lockdowns each flu season?
Got symtoms of a cold? Sorry, you can’t go outside.
too late.
Spam.
Wuhan Bioweapon panic doesn’t grip the world. It only grips those easily subject to manipulation and who are prone to herd behaviors.
The media’s job is not to inform people, it’s to get Trump out of office.
Period.
Wonder how many cases of the flu are being called COVD19 infection never let the facts get in the way of a story.
Also how is it bananas can be shipped 7,000 miles to a store and yet toilet paper can’t make it 25 miles.
Men from Mars story in mass rerun mode.
South Koreans speak ONE language, are predominantly single race people, and obey rules much more than freewheeling Americans. They do not have ACLU or democrat party or liberal media as well. Those are huge advantages when a pandemic strikes.
This might be one benefit of the Pandemic. The media is being exposed for what it is, a pack of lying dogs who are totally self serving. Also, China is being exposed for what it is: A totalitarian dictatorship that has harmed the world and is still trying to spread its lies through the American Media, while suppressing its own...
>>>South Korea has basically beaten this virus with none of the draconian measures of Italy or America.
South Korea immediately began testing hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people, including at drive-through centres.
South Korea employed a central tracking app, Corona 100m, that publicly informs citizens of known cases within 100 metres of where they are. Surprisingly, a culture that has often rebelliously rejected authoritarianism has embraced intrusive measures.
On 17 March, a temporary provision entailed a small subsidy of 454,900 South Korean won (£313) a month to cover basic living expenses. The same funding is available to those who are self-isolating, regardless of whether they test positive for the virus.
It’s already too late for the first step. I don’t think many Americans would like part 2. Part 3 we are working on.
TP is coming to stores in usual quantities. It is the customers today who are unusual. They grab every bundle of TP as fast as it is placed on shelves. Limits don’t work with freaked out buyers. They will just load it in car and return to store for more.
That is exactly been the goal of the China News Network and their associates
Trump is a threat to the Chinese empire
The deep state is China
This virus is being used to damage this country in an election year. Wednesday after the election, there will be nothing in the news about it.
Applause to all three countries. However, according to Worldometer today, South Korea has 3 times as many cases per million of population as does the US. Why is nobody willing to admit that the US has done a damn fine job of managing this supposed crisis. I think I know why. It it because Trump is POTUS.
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