[nwrep]

Here is an interesting graph from FT analyzing the reported deaths:

[Black Agnes]

We clearly need to fire our public health officials and hire the Japanese/SK/Singaporeans as consultants.

[semantic]

Why 10th day? Why not do an appropriate series analysis from day 1 comparing any countries under consideration? Why trust a 3rd party source that arbitrarily used 10th day in order to game the stats? Why not just use source data and look for yourself? Is it because the trend lines wouldn't be as alarming?

US net of plague ship USS NY (35% of total gross US of 2,038). Actuals through 3/28, 3/29-4/5 projected based on event-to-date ratio with Italy.

		Italy	60.5		IT v US		USA-NY	310.9	
Day	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily	Ratio	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.6	3/14/2020	54	10.2%	5
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.9	3/15/2020	59	9.3%	5
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	5.3	3/16/2020	69	16.9%	10
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	5.4	3/17/2020	85	23.2%	16
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.9	3/18/2020	107	25.9%	22
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	6.0	3/19/2020	137	28.0%	30
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	5.6	3/20/2020	184	34.3%	47
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	5.3	3/21/2020	240	30.4%	56
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	4.3	3/22/2020	332	38.3%	92
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	5.0	3/23/2020	362	9.0%	30
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	5.3	3/24/2020	410	13.3%	48
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.0	3/25/2020	621	51.5%	211
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	3.8	3/26/2020	774	24.6%	153
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	3.6	3/27/2020	957	23.6%	183
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	3.1	3/28/2020	1,310	36.9%	353
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	3.1	3/29/2020	1,556	18.8%	246
31	3/22/2020	5,475	13.5%	650	3.1	3/30/2020	1,766	13.5%	210
32	3/23/2020	6,077	11.0%	602	3.1	3/31/2020	1,960	11.0%	194
33	3/24/2020	6,820	12.2%	743	3.1	4/1/2020	2,200	12.2%	240
34	3/25/2020	7,503	10.0%	683	3.1	4/2/2020	2,420	10.0%	220
35	3/26/2020	8,215	9.5%	712	3.1	4/3/2020	2,650	9.5%	230
36	3/27/2020	9,134	11.2%	919	3.1	4/4/2020	2,946	11.2%	296
37	3/28/2020	10,023	9.7%	889	3.1	4/5/2020	3,233	9.7%	287
															
	Gross differential				3.1				
	Population differential				5.1				
	Per capita differential				15.9				
									
Growth rate				2x					2x
29	Days		33.1%					28.1%	
37	Days		28.3%	2.5	Days			24.4%	2.9 days
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)	

[Vermont Lt]

Iran and China must have had a conference call....”If you stop testing, your cases drop!”

[freepersup]

China CANNOT be trusted! PERIOD! Therefore, their numbers are MEANINGLESS!

IMHO- Before all is said and done, China will become engulfed by this virus, which will be described as a second wave, when in fact, it is just a maturation of the initial outbreak, coming into full bloom.

The only numbers that count, are OUR numbers, and numbers from any allies that we TRUST.

Having said that, I appreciate your posting of the graph, and a hat tip to ol’ snake eater- Travis McGee.

[gleeaikin]

More rapid death increase in Italy, Spain and US compared with China are probably due to both a more complete shutdown possible in an autocratic country, as well as a greater ability and desire to hide embarrassing statistics.