Posted on 04/03/2020 6:22:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For the first time in decades, Americans who hear the word "model" are more likely to visualize a graph than a woman on a runway. Now, in the era of the coronavirus, we all are morbidly fixated on the projections that the experts are making regarding the number of people who will contract the virus and the number of them who can be expected to die.
On March 31 at the daily White House briefing, we heard from Drs. Fauci and Birx that the most credible model anticipates a final outcome of 100,000–200,000 American deaths due to the virus. Subsequent discussion repeatedly stressed that the actual number might be much higher or much lower depending on whether the social distancing guidelines are followed. The more these two highly respected scientists discussed the matter, the more evident it became that the model cannot be relied on to provide assurance about how the pandemic will play out. This is not a failure on the part of these two credible scientists; it is a failure of the model.
When one does not know the current level of infection in the population, when little information is available about how quickly the virus can be transmitted from one person to the next, when we remain unsure of whether asymptomatic corona carriers are as contagious as those with symptoms, when nobody seems to know how long the average asymptomatic carrier remains in that state, when we are unable to determine the actual mortality rate among the afflicted — when basic pieces of the puzzle such as these have yet to be inserted into the bigger picture, it is unreasonable to expect this particular model to predict accurately.
The American public seems to have been persuaded that statistical models are examples of solid science
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
And that’s all they have, assumptions.
Thanks to ChiCom lies and CDC bureaucrat incompetence.
Amazing Polly | Real World or Simulation
https://youtu.be/cAnSkQojE_4
There is evidence there will be a major flu epidemic this coming fall. The indication is that we will see a return of the 1918 flu virus that is the most virulent form of the flu. In 1918 a half million Americans died. The projections are that this virus will kill one million Americans in 1976.
-- F. David Matthews, secretary of health, education, and welfare (Feb., 1976)
I posted this yesterday-
The Pseudoscience of real world models
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3830996/posts
As things unfold, the COVID-19 infection and mortality models remind me more and more of the Global Climate Change models...
I think we have about another 2 weeks of this for most places.
“Nobody, absolutely nobody — neither scientist nor layperson — should place confidence in the predictive power of any model that relies on assumptions that have not been thoroughly tested.”
Except when they are used by designated experts to produce professional looking graphs and to make conclusions with unqualified certainty. Then, for sure, you should trust them without question.
Any assumptions that are used to create a model should be explicitly stated,
The possible deviations of the model predictions from actual outcomes based on the assumptions should also be clearly presented.
Otherwise it’s just propaganda. Just like the so called climate models we hear about.
To repeat myself from another comment I made:
This crisis has made me start to think that a lot of very incompetent and insignificant people unexpectedly got their 15 minutes of fame and instead of proving otherwise, showed us just WHY they’re ‘incompetent and insignificant’.
Political appointees, socially or academically connected clowns and others who slid by or leap-frogged all the benchmarks WE meet daily in OUR jobs... so when the world finally ‘meets’ them, they’re shown up for the misplaced, overrated, overpaid jerks that they surely are.
I listen to them and watch them... and it’s obvious that not one of them could hold a position in the real world without their ‘special’ connections.
Actually- I work around professors all day and am always surprised as how disorganized, out-of-touch, clueless many of them are. I am sure that some of them couldn’t find employment anywhere off campus.
One of them tried to mail an envelope... that was returned to us twice. It was not addressed properly and the same error was repeated twice.
I always thought that part of the definition of ‘functional illiteracy’ was, the inability to address an envelope. Sheesh....!
Well, the same people are behind both, Columbia, Harvard et al.
BUT you MUST use random testing for the sick results...and not just test the sick. That's just plain dumb.
And if someone is sick and has a fever....give them the damn meds....just like we do normally for someone that has a fever.
Amen, brother. Modeling is useful as a planning tool - it allows you to get some idea of how to allocate resources. Nobody who uses modeling responsibly is unaware of its limitations.
However, the media is always looking for a splashy headline (even outside their urge to hurt Trump) and all nuance is lost.
Unfortunately, Trump delegated authority to a bunch of fools with Dr. in front of their names and they have become media stars. Big Medicine and Big Media is a fatal combo.
Extrapolations based on assumptions put forth by people with various agendas. Yeah that works for me.
Perhaps we should slaughter some sheep and read the entrails. Anyone got some chicken bones we can toss around and? Magic 8 Balls? Ouija boards?
Sometimes I think half this country is nothing but a cargo cult.
“I think we have about another 2 weeks of this for most places”
I agree. By that time I think it will have passed on in most areas, and it will be obvious that it is safe to generally reopen society.
(or, as Trump hoped, by Easter)
Agreed, but it's not just the U.S. The entire world is doing the same thing. We have basically shut down the whole World's economy over this COVID-19 China Syndrome.
Well, the same people are behind both, Columbia, Harvard et al.
Just remember the "Hockey Stick"!
I agree, but the rest of the world isn’t on the verge of a presidential election.
Rush has said since 2016 that only Trump can break the bond between himself and his base. My prediction from the beginning is that public compliance will last about as long as national unity lasted after 9/11 - about three weeks.
More dictates from incompetent glory grabbing media stars is the path to that separation.
The man should be spending his time studying everything he can find about the C virus and it’s spread, supervising the people in his agency or working with the White House Task Force. He should not be on any other TV shows. Dr. Doom’s 15 minutes of fame should be over.
/s
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