Posted on 10/25/2020 7:27:43 AM PDT by conservative to the bone
Trafalgar Group head pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News on Monday evening that he thinks President Trump will win the November 3 election despite most polls showing Joe Biden ahead.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
So this is posted at RCP, but as far as I know, RCP does NOT include their polls in their averages?
It’s not just being a voter for Trump that will get you targeted. Conservatives are a target in general, so even for a basic House or state race, GOP voters are getting more and more “shy” for their own protection.
I see at least some trafalgar polls there (state ones)
The social trends that made polls wrong in 2016 are much stronger in 2020.
Will the media reflect on their bias and errors? No, because they are only doing what their deep-state controllers want.
If Trump wins when most of the polls showed not only Joe winning but Joe winning in a landslide. All pollsters will have to make massive changes or risk losing future business.
What I have noticed, is that pollsters tend to be closer to correct when the D is actually winning. But something throws them off when the R is. There is something they are missing when that happens.
The thought of Heels-up being President should frighten the daylights out of any sane person.
Remember folks, it was Toto, the little dog, who pulled back the curtain to reveal the Great Oz for the fraud that he was....the masses weren’t loyal to Oz, they just feared his power, which turned out to be fraudulent.....quite the metaphor for the times we live in!
You assume mainstream media (and the polls they publish) care about their sales, circulation or viewership. They do not. Their position is assured, and they serve the deep-state and their corporate masters. Did Pravda care about public opinion in the Soviet Union? Does China Central TV care about opinion of the average Chinese?
That's because most polls are complete crap. Trafalger and Big Data Polls were the two organizations that got it right in 2016 and they did it by using proven methodology to determine a representative sample and spend the time and money to get a credible result. The rest of them are just giving their clients want that want. Since most of the clients are the media, they produce results that conform to the media bias.
polling is a business, and no one will spend money on a flawed product.
Heck I could start a polling firm tomorrow and say every democrat running is winning by 20.. but who would hire me?
Trafalgar seems to be doing polls to actually sense the sentiment of voters, unlike virtually all the rest that manufacture data for propaganda purposes and should be ignored.
GOP voters are getting more and more “shy” for their own protection.
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True but there are myriad other reasons why Trump voters don’t show up in the polls. The biggest reason in my view is that conservatives don’t trust and therefore have no interest in responding to the pollsters.
Your point is increasingly valid however as conservatives are seeing more and more aggressive tactics used against Trump voters in a clear effort to intimidate and silence us.
How much did public opinion play into the fall of the Soviet Union? More than you might think.
Totalitarianism is never in fact total.
Yes of course. People hide their opinions and the controlled media lies about them. I have no doubt until the last day, Pravda was spouting the Party line. That is what America’s mainstream media will do also.
All of us dump on pollsters employed by the MSM and major universities (by and large). And if The Donald wins as most Freepers expect, we hope that the larger populace rejects media polling and the firms that conduct those polls.
But the hard truth is that the campaigns run their own "internal polls." And these polls, from what little I can observe, seem more sophisticated and accurate. I have to suspect that they are held accountable by the various campaign insiders. After all, the campaigns have "skin in the game." And as Nassim N. Taleb tells us, that factor does wonders for improving performance. If your polling firm can't provide an accurate picture of what is going on, why should future campaigns hire you?
If Trump wins when most of the polls showed not only Joe winning but Joe winning in a landslide. All pollsters will have to make massive changes or risk losing future business.
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They’ll just continue to count on more media spin and ignorant people.
“But something throws them off when the R is [winning]. There is something they are missing when that happens.”
Because it’s SOP for pollsters to oversample Democrat voters, which says something about them.
And who knows if that anonymous pollster calling you at home isn’t compiling an Antifa hit list?
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