Posted on 08/10/2022 1:28:58 PM PDT by 2manydegrees
I have a mental model of American voters.
For instance-- A lot of Republican voters are pretty fixed MAGA voters (even if Trump isn't their cup of tea). This election, next, whatever, that's the way they are going to vote.
On the other hand-- A lot of Democrat voters are progressive, but another big bunch are just media followers. Whatever the NY Times is selling works for them.
The result is a set of voters that aren't really under much stress in most election seasons. Convinced MAGA voters aren't going to change much. Progressives and media followers are working from the same set of liberal narratives, and they aren't going to change much either.
This election is a little different. Two of the actual issues are big when they used to be part of the long-term background.
Freedom leaning MAGA folks may be genuinely concerned by the limitations on sexual freedom that may follow from the disappearance of Roe v. Wade. Maybe some will be interested in progressive, pro-choice candidates.
Civil liberties progressives and media readers-but-not-believers may say the police state is out of control
However, I don't think these particular stresses on normal voting habits and preferences are equal.
I thinks pretty much all pro-choice voters already vote, and already vote for Democrats.
I think that there may be a substantial crop of independents and former media followers who say "enough is enough." It's time to vote Republican in the cause of freedom.
There was quite a bit of speculation that the Supreme Court decision would shift the electorate left. I think that shift may not be very or very long-lasting.
In the same way, Government overreach, interference and selective overenforcement were big issues in the Virginia voter shift that led to the success of Governor Youngkin. I think that shift may be bigger and last longer.
That's what I hope, anyway.
Take off the blindfolds and observe what happened in bright red Kansas. All MAGA candidates won but ban on abortions lost by a wide margin. Clearly shows abortion is not a winning issue for republicans. Focus on MAGA issues first. Get more majorities in congress and hopefully POTUS in 2024. Right to life will come later, not before elections are won.
And killing babies is a winning issue?
In Kansas it was.
Your point about the Kansas vote seems good, although I suspect that the result is about bad timing and the attempt to put abortion regulation into the constitution instead of into the legal code.
Being from Virginia, I’m going to hope that the Youngkin move forward is a better predictor than the Kansas setback.
I’m also going to hope that the result on a pure abortion vote may not be the best predictor of the Republican-Democrat balance in November and beyond.
I am the most pro-life person on planet. I will tell you why. When I was at 53 my wife became pregnant nearing age 40. Her gynecologist advised amnio-synthesis test. I and my wife declined because even if the test indicated downs syndrome baby, we would never abort the baby. So there was no need for the test. The baby is my younger daughter and she turned out to be a straight-A student through high school and college. We are so proud of her
But politics and elections are all about winning. Winners get all the power, losers can’t make any laws favoring conservatives. Since red state of Kansas rejected stricter ban on abortions it is clear to me that issue is not a winning issue in elections.
And speaking of Yuongkin, which were his top 3 campaign issues?
Afraid so. Also, see Tagline.
Abortion is an issue that is very passionately held by some, pro and anti.
For a lot of people, it’s not at the top of their priorities.
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