The Dawn of a U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

There are geopolitical and energy realities coming to fruition that nuclear can solve. After more than sixty years, Germany closed all its nuclear power plants (NPPs) with Isar-2, Emsland, and Neckarwestheim-2 officially disconnected from the grid. Germany lost approximately 5% of its power generation. The German government went against science, reason, and grid reliability. Green hydrogen is the process of using renewables (wind and solar) for electricity to produce hydrogen. It is still in its development phase. However, to generate the amount of electricity required to unlock hydrogen from water BloombergNEF estimates: “would take more electricity than the world generates today from all sources combined, and an investment of $11 trillion in production, storage, and transportation infrastructure.”

The solar panel market is dominated by China. In 2022, GE’s renewables division, the world’s largest turbine manufacturer Vestas, and Siemens Energy lost over $4 billion USD combined backing renewable hardware. The unreliability of the product is the culprit, along with high raw material and logistics costs. Add a backlash against renewables for their high land requirements and the gargantuan amount of mining needed to extract rare earth metals and minerals, and it shouldn’t be surprising that energy realism has taken a back seat to fantasies.

On the geopolitical front, Russia continues financing its Ukrainian invasion with Russian oil firms expected to export upwards of 2.42 million bpd from their western ports, the highest amount in four years, with strong demand from Asian buyers steadying Russian oil flows.

In the U.S., nuclear energy is the newly popular game-changer to overcome the above-mentioned issues. Nuclear power is safe, carbon-free, and energy-dense, while needing “the least amount of material and land for electricity production.” Vogtle 3 & 4 opening at the Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Georgia signals a “new nuclear era,” for the U.S. and a counter to growing Russian and Chinese influence. Vogtle Unit 4 is projected to go online this fall. The U.S. will then have 94 operating reactors producing one-fifth of the nation’s carbon-free electricity.

The U.S. has made strides toward nuclear in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), which gives Production Tax Credits for existing NPPs, an Investment Tax Credit for new zero-emission facilities, and monies toward high-assay, low-enrichment (HALEU) fuel for Generation IV NPPs. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Loan Programs Office has allocated $12 billion in loan guarantees towards the Vogtle build-out. The IRA also designated $500 million supporting a demonstration of HALEU production at an enrichment facility in Piketon, OH. The BIL gave $6 billion towards a Nuclear Credit Program. First credits went towards extending the life of Diablo Canyon NPP in California.

Notable next-generation American projects include Dow and X-energy deploying X-energy’s four-unit, high-temperature gas SMR (Xe-100) at one of Dow’s U.S. Gulf sites under the DoE’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. Bill Gates-owned TerraPower and GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy are developing a sodium-cooled fast reactor (Natrium reactor) slated to replace a retiring coal plant in Wyoming. Westinghouse has launched the AP300 SMR, a scaled-down version of its AP1000 pressurized light-water technology reactor, with the goal of delivering electricity within ten years.

For all this good news, critics can rightfully point out that NPP,s high construction costs, project delays, toxic nuclear waste, workforce development problems, and rising interest rates make financing NPPs too expensive for investors. All valid points.

The real frontier is the modular nuclear plants that are about the size of a very small factory. They can be shipped in on a couple of trucks and put together very quickly. Each one could run a small city. If more power is needed, you get another one. When the fuel cells are spent, you ship it back to the factory to be decommissioned. There are a lot more “economies of scale” with the modular reactors. Problem is.... there are no facilities built yet that I know of that will build these modular plants. But they are meant to be more enticing to investors because of their smaller size and affordability.

The real issue is....... there aren’t enough people who can run them. You have to be very bright to operate reactors. most conventional land plants don’t even let college graduates operate them (they do maintenance for years). A lot of the operators come from the Navy. But with IQ scores falling, colleges allowing everyone in (and thereby rigor in the classroom content declining) there is a question about how you can even have them if there isn’t a workforce smart enough to operate them.

The real frontier is the modular nuclear plants that are about the size of a ~~very small factory~~ shipping container.

There, fixed it. The whole idea is the entire plant can be made in a factory and returned to a factory for refurbishment.

That size plant would also make nuclear powered ships a commercial reality.

Only refuel with a new plant every thirty years. The ship is designed to make installation and removal easy. The design is facilitated with easy access to virtually unlimited water for cooling.

For other countries mostly, unless US construction is willing to meet all the restrictions that may not be required in some other countries.

Biden announces US-backed small modular reactor project in Romania

In February, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the first time certified a new small modular reactor designed for domestic use. The company whose design was approved, NuScale Power, has already signed agreements to deploy its small nuclear reactor plants in 12 countries across Europe and the Middle East.

One of the emerging concerns for the administration is the small modular reactors that produce clean energy, but which account for a new proliferation risk.

The reactors could produce “usable material” for terrorist groups seeking to create havoc, a senior administration official told reporters before the signing. “We have to anticipate that and prepare and prevent that becoming a risk. That’s been a focal point of this work since the very beginning.” - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/02/biden-strategy-small-nuke-reactors-00085152

You have to be very bright to operate reactors...But with IQ scores falling, colleges allowing everyone in (and thereby rigor in the classroom content declining) there is a question about how you can even have them if there isn’t a workforce smart enough to operate them.

Enhanced safety protocols may include new plants programmed to initiate an emergency shutdown if the unwelcome personal pronoun alarm is pressed. New recruits are being trained in this as a priority issue. Thus your concern about lack of unqualified operators is based upon misinformation. /sarc

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