Italy is About to Disappear From the Map! Demographic, Economic & Political Crisis Explained [28:50]

Transcript
0:00 · the sad truth is Italy is dying
0:04 · Italy's National Birthright has fallen
0:06 · to its lowest level on record Sicily
0:09 · demographers warn that the shrinking
0:11 · population could drag the country into
0:14 · an unprecedented economic crisis and its
0:16 · economy is collapsing with it situation
0:18 · that is their debt to GDP level
0:20 · currently sitting at around 150 percent
0:22 · the second highest in the year zone now
0:24 · the European commission has warned Italy
0:27 · it will launch a disciplinary steps over
0:29 · the country's growing debt yes I said
0:31 · that third time in a decade Italy's
0:33 · economy has slipped into recession
0:35 · over 24 of Italy's population is over 65
0:39 · and this number is only Rising we're not
0:42 · the first one to mention this Italy's
0:44 · very own health minister is also
0:45 · worrying about this she's quoted saying
0:47 · that Italy is a dying country so what's
0:49 · the problem what's killing Italy it has
0:52 · to do with two words fertility rights
0:54 · this refers to the number of babies each
0:56 · woman has on average the fertility rate
0:59 · in Italy is one of the lowest in the
1:00 · world with a number of 1.24 births per
1:03 · woman to maintain a stable population
1:05 · you need a fertility rate of about 2.1
1:08 · because of this fact Italy's number of
1:10 · 1.24 is making its population very
1:13 · unstable so unstable in fact that a
1:16 · population collapse is not only coming
1:17 · it's inevitable for years now Italy has
1:21 · had fewer births than deaths slowly
1:23 · chipping away at its total population
1:24 · number in 2022 the country recorded a
1:27 · record low number of births it had less
1:30 · than 400 000 newborns with a total
1:32 · population of about 59 million people
1:35 · imagine that for years now
1:38 · the country's population has been
1:39 · falling by around 200 000 every year
1:41 · this huge population decline began back
1:44 · in 2015 and the trend is only worsening
1:46 · keep in mind that a population decline
1:48 · is inevitable when birth rates stay low
1:50 · every new generation could just become
1:52 · smaller and smaller to the point of no
1:55 · return Elon Musk is worried about this
1:57 · possibility saying that Italy will have
1:59 · no people if these Trends continue this
2:02 · is no exaggeration as it is happening in
2:05 · some places already around 6 000 rural
2:08 · villages in the country have been
2:09 · abandoned and fifteen thousand could
2:11 · soon follow the rapidly aging population
2:14 · is the main cause of this as once
2:16 · thriving Villages have become empty
2:18 · ghost towns and this isn't the only
2:20 · effect of the Aging population or even
2:22 · the biggest one demographics are one of
2:24 · the most important statistics for a
2:25 · country because they play a role in
2:27 · almost every system in society the
2:30 · economy politics and the welfare system
2:32 · are all closely intertwined with
2:34 · demographics and that's why a
2:36 · demographic collapse is a terrible thing
2:38 · because it causes all kinds of systems
2:40 · to crumble
2:41 · these problems won't just remain in
2:43 · nursing homes but they will plague the
2:44 · entire Society if these unstable birth
2:47 · rates continue Italy is in for a time of
2:49 · Nationwide unrest and economic downturn
2:51 · let's go over how this dire situation
2:53 · formed in the first place we'll also
2:56 · look at all the problems that will
2:57 · emerge in Italy due to the ongoing
2:59 · demographic crisis but before we
3:01 · continue with the video here's a quick
3:03 · reminder to hit the like button down
3:04 · below topics like these are important to
3:06 · cover because they inform you about the
3:08 · fate of entire nations but we can only
3:10 · make videos about these topics with your
3:12 · support because otherwise the YouTube
3:13 · algorithm will suppress them if you want
3:16 · to support the Channel please like the
3:17 · video and leave a comment down below
3:19 · without further Ado let's go into the
3:21 · basics
3:22 · [Music]
3:32 · thank you
3:34 · right now the country's demographic
3:36 · collapse is going on in full swing
3:38 · because of extremely low fertility rates
3:40 · but just 50 years ago the situation in
3:42 · Italy was a whole lot different in the
3:45 · 1970s the fertility rate was about 2.5
3:47 · meaning that the population was steadily
3:50 · growing but still a rate of 2.5 isn't
3:53 · that much according to historical
3:54 · Italian standards a hundred years
3:56 · earlier Italy had a fertility rate of
3:58 · about five double the number of 1970.
4:01 · however this doesn't mean that the
4:03 · average family had five children one of
4:05 · the causes for this High statistic was
4:07 · the sad reality of infant mortality in
4:09 · Italy of the 1800 around 40 percent of
4:11 · newborns didn't make it past the age of
4:13 · five but in spite of this the population
4:16 · was still growing throughout the 19th
4:18 · century the entire phenomena of an aging
4:20 · population just didn't exist at the time
4:22 · the question is why what has changed
4:25 · over the last 100 years that made
4:26 · fertility rates plummet first of all the
4:29 · incentives for having children changed
4:31 · Italy was a mostly Agricultural Society
4:33 · in Century although the country was
4:36 · slowly industrializing this meant that
4:38 · for most Italians having kids was a
4:40 · no-brainer if you didn't have kids as a
4:42 · farmer there was nobody to take care of
4:44 · you once you got older the centralized
4:46 · State as we know it now didn't exist
4:48 · back then so there were no pensions and
4:50 · no social security having children was
4:53 · necessary for your future self on top of
4:55 · that there was actually a financial
4:56 · incentive to get kids during that time
4:58 · there was no law Banning child labor and
5:01 · it was common practice all over Europe
5:02 · children worked in the fields or in the
5:04 · workshops of their families providing a
5:06 · source of Labor and income for their
5:08 · parents children were actually a net
5:10 · positive for their parents wallets
5:11 · during the early days of the Industrial
5:13 · Revolution parents even set their
5:15 · children to work in factories this
5:17 · terrible practice gave poor families a
5:19 · desperately needed source of income
5:21 · apart from these social and economic
5:22 · incentives there was also cultural and
5:25 · religious factors making the birth rates
5:26 · so high a hundred years ago having a
5:29 · large family was very much respected in
5:31 · Italian culture raising and being part
5:33 · of a large family give people a certain
5:35 · social status the family culture is one
5:37 · of the reasons why the Italian mafia is
5:39 · so infamous
5:40 · with families fighting entire Wars this
5:43 · just shows you how serious family is in
5:45 · Italian culture another influence was
5:47 · the Catholic Church which had a lot of
5:49 · power within the society back then it
5:51 · says that large families are a blessing
5:53 · from God and that it's virtuous to raise
5:55 · children
5:56 · this moved people and their beliefs
5:58 · resulting in higher birth rates but all
6:01 · of these reasons to have kids came
6:02 · crumbling down during the 20th century
6:04 · social economic cultural or religious
6:07 · Everything Has Changed this can be seen
6:10 · in the numbers over the course of a
6:12 · hundred years fertility rates were
6:14 · slashed by about 70 percent now how did
6:16 · this happen first of all having children
6:19 · isn't a no-brainer like it was
6:20 · previously in history right now Italy
6:23 · has a free or low-cost Health Care
6:24 · System a state pension system and
6:27 · various other social security benefits
6:28 · basically the need to have children to
6:31 · take care of you is gone Italy's
6:33 · government takes care of people
6:34 · financially and physically which reduces
6:36 · the need for children in the first place
6:38 · in some ways these government policies
6:40 · have caused the decline in birth rates
6:42 · however the government isn't the only
6:44 · one to blame for the problem in the
6:46 · modern world there's also no Financial
6:48 · incentive anymore for having kids child
6:51 · labor has been abolished which everybody
6:52 · can agree on is a good thing but on top
6:54 · of this the financial burden of having
6:56 · children is also dramatically increased
6:58 · from age 0 to 18 the average cost for
7:02 · the parents is now about 175 000 Euros
7:05 · in Italy this varies between higher
7:07 · income and lower income families with
7:09 · the latter spending less generally
7:11 · but still that's about 10 000 Euro a
7:13 · year on average for just one child the
7:16 · average Italian makes about 30 000 Euro
7:18 · a year so good luck raising multiple
7:20 · kids having just one baby costs more
7:22 · than thirty percent of the average
7:23 · income so raising more is a luxury that
7:25 · most Italians can afford Pope Francis
7:28 · has blamed this issue on Savage free
7:30 · market conditions he said that starting
7:31 · a family is a Titanic effort something
7:34 · that only the rich can afford looking at
7:36 · the numbers he's got a point if it's
7:38 · unaffordable for the average couple to
7:39 · have two children there's arguably
7:41 · something wrong with the economy so the
7:43 · bad side of the Italian economic system
7:45 · also plays a role in the issue another
7:47 · cause of the birth rate collapse is the
7:49 · giant cultural shift that has been
7:51 · taking place since the 1960s or so
7:54 · we're not going to get political here
7:55 · but the culture shift definitely has an
7:57 · impact on birth rates worth mentioning
7:59 · starting a family was part of a
8:01 · traditional world view which was
8:02 · widespread a few hundred years ago
8:04 · but with the rise of counter cultures
8:06 · these traditional ideals have become
8:08 · less and less important in society the
8:10 · rise of feminism is directly linked to
8:12 · lower fertility rates which is proven in
8:14 · a majority of studies because of these
8:16 · movements the traditional idea of having
8:18 · large families has been abandoned this
8:21 · happened all over the Western world
8:22 · including in Italy in some way lower
8:25 · fertility rates have become the new
8:27 · cultural norm and this isn't only a
8:29 · cultural shift but also a religious one
8:31 · as it did in many European countries
8:33 · religion has become less and less
8:35 · important in Italy traditionally the
8:38 · country had a vast majority of Roman
8:40 · Catholics and looking at the data about
8:42 · 80 percent of Italians still call
8:43 · themselves Catholic in 2021 but when it
8:46 · comes to actual Church attendance well
8:48 · the numbers are much lower in 2020 about
8:51 · 12 million Italians went to church every
8:53 · week which is around 20 percent of the
8:55 · population the vast majority of this
8:57 · group are elderly and the percentages
8:59 · among newer Generations are much lower
9:00 · it's safe to say that the newer
9:03 · Generations are less religious than 100
9:04 · years ago now a religious population has
9:07 · a higher fertility rate on average
9:08 · according to Scientific data as Italy is
9:11 · becoming more of a secular country
9:12 · fertility rates have been dropping as a
9:15 · result in short it's clear that the
9:17 · demographic collapse doesn't have just
9:19 · one cause but many government policy
9:22 · economic incentives and a cultural shift
9:24 · are just some of the major ones but
9:26 · apart from having many causes a
9:28 · Birthright decline will also have many
9:29 · effects
9:30 · and that is their debt to GDP level
9:32 · currently sitting at around 150 percent
9:35 · the second highest in the year zone now
9:37 · the European commission has warned Italy
9:39 · it will launch disciplinary steps over
9:42 · the country's growing debt third time in
9:44 · a decade Italy's economy has slipped
9:46 · into recession so we now understand the
9:48 · reasons behind the plummeting birth
9:49 · rates but it's even more interesting to
9:51 · look at what will happen in the future
9:52 · and it doesn't look good in many regards
9:54 · especially economically because of the
9:57 · demographic crisis Italy is heading for
9:59 · an economic collapse this might seem an
10:01 · overstatement but sadly it's not the
10:04 · country already is one of the weakest
10:05 · economies in Europe when we look at the
10:07 · data Italy is one of the few developed
10:09 · countries that barely grew its GDP over
10:11 · the last 20 years
10:12 · when we look at GDP at purchasing power
10:14 · parity which basically adjusts the
10:16 · number for inflation the country's
10:18 · economy hasn't grown at all compared to
10:20 · France through the United Kingdom it's
10:22 · clear that Italy is an underperformer
10:23 · while other countries have grown their
10:25 · economy Italy has gone into recessions
10:27 · three times over the last decade right
10:29 · now there are fears that it will enter a
10:32 · fourth it's no exaggeration to say that
10:34 · the country is having a hard time
10:35 · economically already sadly enough the
10:38 · demographic crisis will make this even
10:40 · worse you see birth rates are a key part
10:42 · of economic prosperity and low rates can
10:45 · cause economic downturn just to be
10:46 · concise here High birth rates aren't
10:49 · traditionally associated with economic
10:50 · success Economic Development usually
10:52 · goes hand in hand with lower birth rates
10:54 · as countries with higher rates are
10:56 · mostly underdeveloped but we have to
10:58 · make the difference between low birth
10:59 · rates and extremely low birth rates when
11:02 · they are so low that they cause a
11:03 · population to collapse an economic
11:05 · downfall is inevitable you don't have to
11:07 · be an economist to understand this the
11:09 · fewer people there are the fewer
11:11 · customers and workers for Italy's
11:12 · economy enemy if there are fewer people
11:14 · to buy and produce goods and services
11:15 · you have an economic contraction so this
11:18 · population decline will have a negative
11:20 · impact on Italy's GDP growth in the long
11:22 · run this sets Italy up to be an
11:24 · underperformer far into the future in
11:26 · the short term we'll also see another
11:28 · problem emerge extreme labor shortages
11:30 · if you do the math a fertility rate of
11:33 · 1.2 means that every generation shrinks
11:35 · by about 40 percent so the younger
11:37 · Generations in Italy are shrinking at
11:39 · scary rates this is having a huge effect
11:41 · on the labor force because there are the
11:43 · people who are supposed to work jobs
11:44 · according to a prominent Italian
11:46 · businessman the upcoming labor shortage
11:48 · is a ticking Time Bomb soon businesses
11:51 · will start to leave the country because
11:53 · there just aren't enough people there
11:54 · when companies start leaving the country
11:56 · and economic downturn is inevitable and
11:59 · the problems go far beyond that because
12:01 · of a lack of people the Italian
12:02 · government is struggling to get projects
12:04 · off the ground a recent example of this
12:06 · are the infrastructure projects that
12:08 · were paused this year to get its economy
12:10 · back on its feet Italy has recently
12:12 · received 191.5 billion euros from the EU
12:16 · however the infrastructure projects that
12:18 · were supposed to be funded with this
12:20 · money couldn't be started because of
12:22 · Labor shortages Italy isn't even able to
12:24 · invest in its own economy and no wonder
12:26 · with current trends 110 000 to 120 000
12:30 · fewer students enter Italian classrooms
12:32 · each year so the amount of people in
12:34 · Italy schools would decline by 1 million
12:36 · within a decade this will cause problems
12:38 · both for companies and the government
12:40 · because there just aren't enough people
12:41 · to fill the jobs to make it even worse
12:43 · Italy is also facing a huge brain drain
12:46 · around 50 000 young people leave the
12:48 · country every year to find better jobs
12:50 · elsewhere in France Germany or
12:52 · Switzerland salaries are way higher
12:55 · meaning that young Italians would rather
12:56 · work abroad many of the people who end
12:58 · up leaving are degree holders which is a
13:01 · relatively small group in the country
13:02 · only 28 percent of Italians between 25
13:05 · and 34 hold degrees far below the
13:07 · European average of 41 percent this
13:10 · means that the country has a very small
13:12 · pool of Highly Educated people many of
13:14 · whom end up leaving
13:16 · this lack of talent could help with
13:18 · Italy's economic demise because the
13:19 · country's economic growth relies on it
13:21 · when Italy doesn't have enough
13:23 · scientists engineers or software
13:25 · developers it won't be able to compete
13:26 · in the modern economy there's already
13:28 · talk of a skills shortage in the country
13:30 · with companies struggling to find
13:32 · Qualified employees this is just another
13:34 · reason for businesses to leave and for
13:36 · Italy's economy to underperform
13:38 · so the overall economics of the country
13:40 · don't look all too exciting on a
13:42 · government financial level it's just the
13:44 · same Italy's national debt burden is the
13:46 · fourth biggest in the world with its
13:48 · government building more than 156
13:50 · percent of the country's GDP in debts
13:53 · the government has consistently run into
13:54 · budget deficits because it can't Finance
13:56 · all of its expenses with one of the
13:58 · biggest debt burdens in the world
14:00 · investors fear that Italy is becoming a
14:02 · risky place to put money into Italy
14:04 · wouldn't be the first country to run
14:06 · into problems with its debt as it has
14:08 · already happened during the Eurozone
14:09 · crisis starting in 2009 multiple EU
14:12 · countries were unable to repay their
14:14 · debts these countries were Greece Cyprus
14:16 · Portugal Spain and Ireland because EU
14:20 · countries share the same currency this
14:22 · crisis affected the entire Union as the
14:24 · Euro depreciated in value it also
14:27 · sparked controversy within the union
14:28 · because the Richer countries like
14:30 · Germany didn't want to bail out other
14:31 · member states they said that the
14:33 · unsustainable debt levels weren't their
14:35 · problem countries like Greece were to
14:37 · blame for not being Frugal enough
14:38 · According to some EU members because of
14:41 · these internal issues the Eurozone
14:43 · crisis has threatened the very existence
14:45 · of the EU when we look at it from a
14:47 · historical perspective the debt
14:48 · situation in Italy is a ticking time
14:50 · bomb and the demographic crisis might be
14:52 · the spark to ignite it you see the
14:55 · Italian government needs to do two
14:56 · things financially first of all it needs
14:59 · to spend money on public services
15:00 · infrastructure defense and whatnot
15:02 · things like these are essential to keep
15:04 · a country up and running but in order to
15:06 · spend this money the government needs to
15:08 · collect money through taxes and this is
15:10 · where government in Italy is running
15:12 · into issues because of its rapidly aging
15:14 · population a majority of the taxes come
15:17 · from economically productive people
15:18 · which means people working jobs or
15:20 · running businesses but this economically
15:22 · productive population is shrinking every
15:24 · year because of low fertility rates
15:26 · we've already discussed how every newer
15:28 · generation is shrinking by 40 percent
15:30 · inevitably this means the tax revenue
15:33 · will go down when tax rates don't go up
15:35 · to make matters even worse government
15:37 · expenses will only rise in the upcoming
15:39 · decades the average life expectancy in
15:41 · Italy has risen significantly over the
15:43 · last decades meaning that the older
15:45 · Generations live longer for the Italian
15:47 · government this could be a huge problem
15:50 · elderly people don't bring as much tax
15:52 · revenue but they cost a lot in the form
15:54 · of Health Care and pensions so this part
15:56 · of the population is a net negative for
15:58 · the national finances and slowly but
16:00 · surely the elderly part of the
16:02 · population is becoming bigger and bigger
16:04 · according to this chart the elderly
16:06 · share of the population is rising with
16:08 · 0.3 percent a year pretty consistently
16:10 · because these demographic Trends Italy
16:13 · is going to have lower tax revenue and
16:15 · higher government expenses for a country
16:17 · already heavily indebted this is not
16:20 · sustainable the Italian government will
16:22 · be running at an even bigger budget
16:23 · deficit which can continue without
16:25 · causing problems it has two choices
16:27 · Italy can either dramatically cut
16:29 · government expenses or dramatically
16:31 · increase tax rates oh yeah the third
16:33 · option is to keep printing money like
16:34 · it's doing now but we all know how that
16:36 · one ends with financial disaster of
16:39 · course so the government is a difficult
16:41 · Place financially to say the least we're
16:43 · at the center of all their financial
16:44 · problems is the country's pension system
16:46 · because of the way that it's organized
16:48 · this pension system is in a dire
16:50 · situation like many other European
16:53 · nations Italy has a centralized
16:55 · pay-as-you-go pension system in
16:57 · pay-as-you-go systems the currently
16:59 · employed population pays for the
17:00 · retirement of the retired population
17:02 · basically this means the younger
17:04 · generation is supporting the older
17:06 · generation's retirement but you can see
17:08 · where this goes sideways in the near
17:10 · future this this type of system should
17:12 · collapse because of Aging populations
17:14 · for one the sheer amount of Pensions
17:17 · Italy has to pay is getting out of hand
17:19 · the country spends about 70 percent of
17:21 · its GDP on pensions right now yes that's
17:24 · 17 of the entire economy
17:27 · this figure will only get worse in the
17:29 · future because the demographic collapse
17:31 · first of all the percentage of retirees
17:34 · in Italy's population is growing rapidly
17:36 · this means that Italy will need to pay
17:38 · more and more people in the future
17:39 · relatively speaking but on the other
17:42 · hand the younger generation is rapidly
17:44 · shrinking and this younger generation is
17:46 · the one who's supposed to pay for the
17:47 · retirement of the elderly in short the
17:50 · Italian retirement system is headed for
17:52 · collapse to truly reveal how bad it is
17:54 · let's look at the old age dependency
17:56 · ratio this statistic is the number of
17:58 · retirees for every person in the working
18:00 · population right now Italy has about 38
18:03 · elderly people for every 100 people in
18:05 · working age but according to oecd
18:08 · projections this will increase to more
18:10 · than 70 by 2050. this means that
18:13 · everyone within working age has to
18:15 · support about 70 percent of someone's
18:16 · pension roughly speaking that equals to
18:19 · about 9 000 Euros every year or 30
18:22 · percent of the average Italian's income
18:23 · so Italians within working will have to
18:26 · pay about 30 percent of their income to
18:28 · fund someone else's retirement this of
18:30 · course is not very feasible as it would
18:32 · be a huge burden on the younger
18:33 · generation politicians in Rome are
18:36 · scrambling for solutions to deal with
18:38 · this issue with attempts to try and
18:39 · reform the retirement program over the
18:42 · long term Italy may be able to abandon
18:44 · the pay-as-you-go pension system
18:45 · whenever generation pays for its own
18:48 · retirement it will be much more stable
18:50 · but such a transition would take
18:51 · multiple decades because the current
18:53 · older generation is still dependent on
18:55 · the younger one the government in Italy
18:57 · can't leave retirees on their own
18:58 · because they are still entitled to
19:00 · receive pensions from the government
19:01 · that's why the pension reform is going
19:03 · to be slow and painful but the question
19:06 · is if Italy has multiple decades left
19:08 · before its pension system collapses the
19:10 · government in Rome is already facing
19:12 · huge budget deficits and its national
19:14 · debt is also getting out of hand if the
19:16 · country has to spend billions of Euros
19:18 · extra on pensions that could be the last
19:20 · straw
19:21 · early results from Italy's election show
19:23 · a clear victory for an alliance of
19:25 · right-wing party some 31 000 or still
19:28 · migrants have arrived here in Italy on
19:31 · the sea route in the last couple of
19:33 · months of this year now compared that to
19:35 · 2021 and 2022 it's four times the number
19:39 · so it's clear that Italy faces a lot of
19:41 · headwinds because of its demographic
19:43 · collapse this will of course have a big
19:45 · impact on politics in the country as it
19:47 · will have to deal with economic and
19:49 · governmental problems but one thing is
19:51 · clear because Italy is a democracy there
19:54 · will be one winner in the upcoming
19:55 · political debate the elderly part of the
19:57 · population
19:58 · the parties supporting old people will
20:00 · have the biggest political say in Italy
20:02 · because they have the most votes
20:03 · undoubtedly this will create a lot of
20:06 · societal tension old people want to keep
20:08 · the retirement age low receive their
20:10 · pensions and retain free health care the
20:12 · problem is that Italy can hardly afford
20:14 · these things in the future when the old
20:16 · generation wants to keep all the
20:17 · benefits it comes at a great cost for
20:20 · the younger generation first of all the
20:22 · government needs to increase tax rates
20:24 · to fund the welfare programs for the
20:25 · elderly increasing tax rates comes with
20:28 · huge economic costs
20:30 · as businesses and people will leave the
20:32 · country so high tax rates would hurt the
20:34 · economy and therefore the younger
20:36 · generation it will lead to an economic
20:38 · Decline and worst living standards for
20:40 · the newer Generations if the government
20:42 · increases its taxes it's basically
20:44 · sacrificing its economy for the welfare
20:46 · of the elderly the only other way to
20:48 · keep the welfare programs running is
20:50 · government debt but there are limits to
20:52 · how much money Italy can lend because
20:54 · the risks associated with it and the
20:56 · European Union countries are officially
20:58 · only allowed to have 60 percent of their
21:00 · GDP in debt this is to prevent something
21:03 · like the Eurozone crisis from ever
21:05 · happening again however many countries
21:07 · don't listen to this rule with Italy
21:09 · currently having 144 percent of its GDP
21:12 · in debt this puts Italy in a tricky
21:14 · position other EU countries especially
21:17 · Germany don't want Italy to increase its
21:19 · obligations
21:20 · when Italy borrows billions of Euros
21:22 · more it will create tension with other
21:24 · EU countries and even if the country
21:26 · manages to borrow more money debt still
21:28 · carries the cost everyone knows that
21:31 · borrowed money is never free money High
21:33 · government debt leads to a high interest
21:35 · payments in inflation in 2022 Italy had
21:38 · to pay 4.4 percent of its GDP on the
21:41 · interest payouts for its debt or close
21:43 · to 90 billion dollars increasing debt
21:46 · even more will make these interest
21:47 · payouts even bigger to the point where
21:49 · it's unsustainable on top of that
21:51 · government debt also has a tendency to
21:53 · cause inflation if the Italian
21:55 · government pumps billions of euros into
21:56 · its economy the total supply of money
21:58 · increases according to basic economic
22:01 · theory an increase in Supply makes the
22:03 · value go down this is also known as
22:06 · inflation when the Italian government
22:07 · funds its welfare with debt it would
22:10 · lead to economic unrest the younger
22:12 · generation will suffer from this the
22:13 · most because they need to pay the
22:15 · interest in the national debt on top of
22:17 · that inflation will cause the
22:19 · generation's living standards to go down
22:21 · the retirees have less of a problem with
22:23 · this because their pensions are
22:24 · inflation-adjusted to some extent in
22:27 · short the younger generation is in a bit
22:29 · of a pickle it will carry the cost of
22:31 · the demographic collapse but the
22:32 · generation has very little political say
22:34 · to prevent it from getting completely
22:36 · out of hand the government in Rome will
22:38 · have to make a difficult decision it has
22:40 · to increase their retirement age which
22:42 · is currently at 67. a higher retirement
22:44 · age decreases the expenses for
22:46 · government welfare and increases tax
22:48 · revenue from workers the problem is
22:50 · nobody likes a higher retirement age if
22:53 · Italy increases it to say 70 years old
22:55 · Mass protests and riots will follow just
22:58 · look at what happened in France just
22:59 · after macron raised the retirement age
23:01 · there but maybe it's better to have
23:03 · short-term anger than long-term
23:04 · political unrest if the retirement age
23:07 · isn't raised high taxes government debt
23:09 · and inflation could cause Mass protests
23:11 · and rides just as well this is a very
23:13 · difficult political problem which
23:15 · definitely causes some headaches in Rome
23:17 · another political problem is an internal
23:19 · one you see Italy's decline isn't spread
23:22 · evenly Across the Nation the southern
23:24 · parts of the nation have it way worse
23:25 · than the Northern parts in virtually all
23:27 · aspects it is said that Italy has the
23:29 · most geographically divided country in
23:31 · the European Union the northern region
23:33 · of Lombardi has more than doubled the
23:35 · GDP per capita as the southern regions
23:37 · of Calabria or Sicily cities in the
23:40 · north have actually experienced growth
23:41 · over the last decades but the economy in
23:43 · the South has been stagnant we can see
23:45 · this in the figures of regional growth
23:47 · the southern region of Calabria has only
23:49 · grown its GDP by one percent from 2010
23:52 · to 2019.
23:53 · but the northern region of trentino Alto
23:56 · adige has grown by 21 over the same time
23:59 · period this north-south difference is
24:01 · true for many region with some
24:02 · exceptions right now the north of Italy
24:05 · is relatively Rich for EU standards but
24:07 · the South relatively poor
24:09 · there are also some Regional differences
24:11 · when it comes to fertility rates
24:12 · trentino's South tyrol has a fertility
24:15 · rate of almost 1.6 whereas Sardinia has
24:18 · won just under 1.0 rates are fairly low
24:20 · throughout the country but some areas
24:22 · have more acute problems than others a
24:24 · fertility rate of one makes every
24:26 · generation 50 smaller which is an insane
24:28 · experiment to run now the variation in
24:31 · fertility rates isn't completely a north
24:32 · to south divide Sicily for example has a
24:35 · fertility rate of about 1.4 the second
24:37 · biggest in Italy but the differences in
24:39 · fertility rates aren't the main issue
24:41 · here an even bigger factor is the mass
24:43 · migration of people in southern Italy
24:45 · almost 50 percent of the people leaving
24:47 · Italy come from the south which means
24:49 · that the Region's brain drain is
24:51 · disproportionately large another form of
24:53 · migration is the internal migration from
24:55 · Southern to Northern Italy this internal
24:58 · migration isn't a new phenomena as
25:00 · millions of Italians have moved up north
25:01 · since World War II and no wonder the
25:04 · salaries in the northern industrial
25:05 · cities are just way higher the huge
25:07 · difference in GDP per capita or the main
25:10 · reason for this over the years this has
25:12 · led to the populations of Southern
25:14 · cities like Naples or Palermo dropping
25:16 · by the thousands the problem is this the
25:19 · biggest group of people who are leaving
25:20 · are in the age of 15 to 34. this means
25:24 · that the Aging problem in southern
25:25 · cities is way worse than the prosperous
25:27 · Northern cities if Italy is facing
25:29 · shortages in its Workforce the southern
25:31 · cities are the first ones to get in
25:33 · trouble but the Italian government this
25:35 · obviously brings some challenges if the
25:37 · differences between the North and South
25:38 · continue to grow it'll be hard to keep
25:40 · the country unified with a huge divide
25:42 · in GDP per capita and economic success
25:45 · Northern Italy and southern Italy are
25:47 · just Worlds Apart the demographic
25:49 · collapse will make this even worse as
25:51 · southern Italy will feel the blow even
25:52 · more acutely
25:54 · another Hot Topic in Italy's politics is
25:56 · immigration which is also related to low
25:58 · fertility rates right now about nine
26:01 · percent of Italy's population are
26:02 · foreigners representing around 5.2
26:05 · million people this number has grown
26:07 · significantly over the last 20 years
26:09 · because it was only 1.3 million in 2002.
26:12 · most of Italy's immigrants come from
26:14 · poorer European countries with 47.6
26:17 · percent of immigrants coming from Europe
26:18 · interestingly enough about 2 million of
26:21 · the immigrants in the country were born
26:22 · in Romania being the biggest group of
26:24 · foreigners in Italy but Northern Africa
26:26 · Asia and Latin America are also places
26:29 · where immigrants come from 22.3 percent
26:32 · of immigrants were born in Africa mainly
26:34 · in Northern African nations like Morocco
26:36 · Egypt or Tunisia immigration from Asian
26:39 · countries represents 22.6 percent of
26:41 · total immigration the fastest growing
26:43 · foreign population in Italy are actually
26:45 · the Chinese with a population of 330 000
26:49 · people in Italy the other less
26:50 · substantial group of immigrants are
26:52 · Latin Americans with about 7.5 percent
26:54 · of total immigration coming from the
26:56 · region it's safe to say that Italy
26:58 · attracts people from all over the world
26:59 · of course Italy is a beautiful country
27:01 · where many people would love to live
27:03 · but the biggest reason for the
27:05 · immigration is actually the demographic
27:07 · collapse because Italy just has too few
27:09 · people to work jobs people from the
27:11 · outside come to fill in the Gap in a way
27:13 · immigration is compensating for the
27:15 · extremely low birth rates but it doesn't
27:17 · come at a low cost because there is a
27:19 · lot of opposition in Italy against
27:21 · migration the country now has a
27:23 · right-wing government led by prime
27:24 · minister Maloney which is opposed to
27:26 · mass migration recently melonia said
27:29 · that migration isn't the way to solve
27:31 · the demographic crisis if the Birds race
27:33 · continue to be as low as they are now
27:35 · immigrants would make up an increasingly
27:37 · bigger part of the population the
27:39 · right-wing government is afraid that
27:40 · this would change Italy's cultural
27:42 · identity and cause internal unrest as
27:45 · many countries in Europe are shifting
27:46 · right there's a good chance Mass
27:48 · immigration will come to an end although
27:50 · some on the left see immigration as a
27:51 · solution for the population collapse it
27:54 · won't happen because of the political
27:55 · reality to sum it all up it's clear that
27:57 · Italy is in major trouble because of
27:59 · financial cultural and social changes
28:02 · fertility rates have collapsed in the
28:03 · country this is going to cause extreme
28:06 · Workforce shortages and an overall
28:08 · economic decline the country is already
28:10 · an underperformer in Europe some that
28:12 · could be worsened by the demographic
28:14 · collapse Italy is starting to run into
28:16 · huge fiscal issues with the government
28:18 · already loaded with trillions in debt
28:20 · the welfare state with its pension
28:22 · system is completely unaffordable
28:23 · because the population is rapidly aging
28:26 · because these problems Italy is also
28:28 · headed to a difficult time politically
28:30 · the younger Generations will have a hard
28:32 · time supporting the elderly which causes
28:34 · friction in society with the huge south
28:36 · to North Regional divide Italy will
28:39 · become more divided than ever and the
28:41 · left and the right will be fighting on
28:42 · whether immigration is a good or bad
28:43 · thing because of the upcoming
28:45 · demographic economic and political
28:47 · crisis it's safe to say Italy is dying

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.