The PRC’s Aggression Is Happening Now Against the Philippines

American Greatness ^ | 1 Jan, 2024 | James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer

[MtnClimber]

The PRC has adopted a sustained coercive campaign against the Philippines to seize its sovereign territory. The world is witnessing this aggression today in the South China Sea.

Awarning from the 20th century is that dictatorships tend to use aggression not first against great powers but against smaller states. Hitler pressured Austria and seized the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia before seizing the rest of the Czech Republic, turning Slovakia into a protectorate, and seizing Memel (Klaipeda) from Lithuania. After checking Japan in 1938 and 1939 in the Far East, Stalin aggressed against Poland with his ally Nazi Germany before turning to invade Finland, the Baltic states, and the Romanian territory of Bessarabia and northern Bukovina. Mao invaded Tibet as he was preparing to intervene in the Korean War.

That important lesson permits us to see the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) aggression against the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, in an alarming light. The PRC has adopted a sustained coercive campaign against the Philippines to seize its sovereign territory. The world is witnessing this aggression today in the South China Sea. Over the past three decades, the PRC has used brute force to assert their “territorial” claim over the South China Sea, a sea area 30% larger than the Mediterranean Sea, where some $5 trillion worth of goods transit each year.

The campaign of aggression against the Philippines started in 1995, when the PRC seized Mischief Reef. It has continued since, but 2023 has been a culminating year. On August 5, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships, the size of a U.S. Navy destroyer with reinforced hulls for ramming, obstructed the Republic of the Philippine’s resupply mission to their outpost aboard the ex-U.S. Navy WWII-era ship, the Sierra Madre, at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The ship was purposefully run aground in 1999 as it was the only option the Philippines had to defend their sovereign territory that lies well within Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). It is important to recall that in 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled the PRC has no lawful claim to the South China Sea, to include Second Thomas Shoal.

Since then, Beijing has scoffed at the court’s ruling as a “farce” and flaunted its defiance of the ruling through deeds, including what the China Coast Guard (CCG) cutters did using water cannons to drive away the Philippine navy from conducting what is a humanitarian mission for the sailors and marines aboard the Sierra Madre. The PRC has continually called upon the Philippines to remove the ship, hindered resupply missions to the vessel, and even threatened to seize it. For their part, the new Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, General Romeo Brawner, labeled the attack an “act of war.”

The record of the PRC’s duplicity and aggressiveness in the South China Sea is well established, but what makes this recent event at Second Thomas Shoal different this time is that Beijing is now able to assert direct military force to seize territory by force. This is because the PRC was able to build seven installations in the Spratly Islands starting in 2013, three of which are the size of Pearl Harbor and equipped with 10,000-foot runways and pier space to equip all the PLA Navy’s (PLAN) aircraft carriers. The PRC’s rhetoric is becoming more belligerent and more frequent. In the last week of December, Wu Qian, a spokesperson for the PRC’s Ministry of Defense, said that “China will not turn a blind eye to the Philippine’s repeated provocations and harassment” while calling upon the U.S. to stop its meddling in the issue.

In fact, that is the last thing the U.S. needs to do. Far greater U.S. involvement is necessary. The U.S. response has been far from ideal to reassure Manilla, one of America’s oldest allies. The four Filipino bases announced for use by the U.S. on April 3, two in Cagayan and one each in Isabela and Palawan, are important steps forward. But they are insufficient given the immediacy of the threat from Beijing.

Three more major steps are necessary. First, the U.S. needs to recognize that the defense of the Philippines is linked to the defense of Taiwan. Taiwan occupies key geopolitical real estate, as Beijing and Washington recognize. For the PRC, it is a cork in the bottle of the first island chain and prevents the PLAN from easily accessing the Pacific, from defending the PRC’s ports from mining, and from sustaining the Sea Line of Communication from the East and South China Seas. Bases in Taiwan and the Philippines can serve as important deterrents to the PRC’s aggression, and should deterrence fail, each has a role to play in reinforcing the other.

Second, working with its Filipino ally and perhaps other allies like Australia and Japan, the U.S. needs to conduct the maritime equivalent of the Berlin Airlift to ensure that regular supplies flow to the Filipino presence on Second Thomas Shoal and the PRC’s coercive attempts fail as Stalin’s did in 1948–1949. This time, though, given the geography, the airlift must be a sealift, something that highlights the deficiencies of the U.S. maritime shipbuilding industry.

Third, successfully breaking the back of the PRC’s coercive attempts at Second Thomas Shoal would be the first stage of a rollback campaign headed by the U.S. but including the Philippines and partners to apply countervailing pressure on Beijing and work with its allies to enforce international law in the South China Sea as expressed in the 2016 PCA decision. So far, Beijing has gotten away with aggression in the South China Sea with no repercussions. This must change.

The PRC’s small and measured, aka “salami slicing,” aggression is becoming a torrent that the U.S. and its allies and partners must stop now.

James Fanell is a government fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, a retired captain in the U.S. Navy, and a former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Bradley A. Thayer is a Founding Member of the Committee on Present Danger China and the coauthor with Lianchao Han of Understanding the China Threat.

[MtnClimber]

Before the USA can do anything, Biden has to be replaced. The Chinese own him and his entire family.

[Boomer]

This is a big reason they had to rig the election and install the toilet known as biden.

[Boomer]

I have very bad feeling about 2024. All signs point to a financial, foreign policy, and domestic spiral.

The only real question is how steep and fast that downward spiral will be.

[Openurmind]

It is going to come down to the globalist priorities. While Biden might be personally dedicated to China, the more important priority of his globalist handlers is to break and destroy our nation with multi front wars we cannot afford.

And since the MIC is part of the global cabal and has an insatiable appetite for all the business it can get, the MIC will win this priority and decision. We will open a front there also even if it is a fictional front for theatrics.

[MtnClimber]

I have very bad feeling about 2024. All signs point to a financial, foreign policy, and domestic spiral.

ME TOO!

[Sirius Lee]

Remember when they kicked the U.S.N. out of Subic? Remember when they stopped allowing our navy to conduct exercises? Now, suddenly, the Phillipeans are having second thoughts.

[DIRTYSECRET]

It’s like sheep without the sheepdogs. Actions have consequences.

Think Loral. Plenty of money for the Clintons and the country paid the price. ‘Consensus’ is easier when the ounce of prevention idea is swept under the rug.

[Brian Griffin]

Production of many things might be done in the Philippines at lower cost than in China.

[Macoozie]

Bullies always pick on the weak.
China is collapsing internally and will cease to be much of anything in 50 years.

The Philippine people speak English, have strong history with the West, have resources and huge infrastructure opportunities.

Whoever helps them leverage what they have, for what they need, will gain the benefits and rewards of that relationship.

They need clean drinking water, better educational and training structures, more domestic production of goods, and reliable power & communications.
Might be too earthquacky for safe large scale nuclear power, but might be ideal for localized mini-mills.

They have key locational assets and a growing Christian population

[SunkenCiv]

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• U.S. oil production hit a record under Biden. He seldom mentions it. [12/31/2023]

[SunkenCiv]

• Japan and Philippines to Negotiate Defense Pact (and China Is Not Happy About It) [11/03/2023]
• Biden says US is willing to fight China on behalf of the Philippines following ship collision near disputed island [10/25/2023]
• US renews warning it will defend Philippines after incidents with Chinese vessels in South China Sea [10/23/2023]
• Philippines says it will remove barrier installed by China in disputed South China Sea [09/25/2023]
• Philippines condemns China for installing floating barrier in disputed sea [09/24/2023]
• China's new national map has angered its neighbors [09/01/2023]
• China's attempt to seize another island in the South China Sea failed (for now) [08/27/2023]
• Philippines summons Chinese ambassador over water cannon incident in disputed South China Sea [08/07/2023]
• City under sea, China dam release water! Many cars damage in Fujian [08/02/2023]
• The Philippines 'will not become a staging post' for US-China conflict [05/01/2023]
• U.S. and the Philippines Hold Largest Joint Exercises in 30 Years in a Show of Force to China [04/11/2023]
• US, Philippines begin largest-ever drills after China exercises [04/10/2023]
• The Philippines, Tired of China's Bullying, Restores Military Alliance with the U.S. [03/08/2023]
• US Warns It Will Defend Philippines After China Deploys Laser At Sea in a New Significant Incident Involving the Philippine and Chinese Coast Guards [02/14/2023]
• China is pushing the envelope all over the world: United States and the Philippines have reached a deal that will see Washington substantially increase its military footprint in the Southeast Asian country [02/]
• US, Philippines to Restart Joint Patrols in South China Sea [02/03/2023]
• Philippines' Marcos Vows to 'Strengthen' China Ties on Beijing Trip [01/04/2023]
• 4 Ambassadors Died in China Sparking Questions [08/09/2022]
• Philippines' Marcos wants China ties to 'shift to higher gear' under his presidency [05/19/2022]
• China vows to attack US troops who come to Taiwan's aid [12/12/2021]
• Philippines Warns China of U.S. Defense Treaty After Water Cannon Fired at Filipino Boats [11/19/2021]
• Philippines Lodges Diplomatic Protest Against Beijing's 'Illegal' Incursions in South China Sea [10/21/2021]
• Vietnam misses Trump as it struggles with China [09/02/2021]
• Philippines challenges Chinese warship in S. China Sea [07/19/2021]
• Report: China Dumping so Much Raw Sewage into South China Sea It Is Visible from Space [07/15/2021]
• South China Sea: Filipino fishermen 'so scared' after Beijing militia ram boats in EEZ [07/10/2021]
• After Witnessing 3 Months of Biden's Stumbling and Bumbling, China Declares It Is Now "Ready to Defeat" the US [05/15/2021]
• Philippines' President Duterte Says He Won't Withdraw Ships From Contested Waters with China [05/14/2021]
• Philippine President Duterte Apologizes for Taking Unapproved Sinopharm Jab, Requests China Withdraw Doses [05/07/2021]
• Philippines foreign minister issues expletive-laced tweet over China sea dispute [05/03/2021]
• South China Sea: Tensions as Manila condemns Beijing over 'threatening' boats [04/25/2021]
• Philippine President Duterte asked to confront China in South China Sea [04/17/2021]
• South China Sea: Vietnam warship hits back at Beijing aggression with 'combat drills' [04/12/2021]
• China, US send warships into disputed waters as tensions rise over Whitsun Reef [04/05/2021]
• 'Insidious' Beijing using 'coercion and pressure' in South China Sea as war fears grow [04/03/2021]
• South China Sea: Philippine military vows to continue aerial patrols after plane warned off by Chinese vessels near disputed reef [03/31/2021]
• China Grabbing Whitsun Reef: 'Sudetenland' in Slow Motion [03/29/2021]
• China's State-of-the-Art Destroyer Sails Near Japan, Philippines Reports Chinese Flotilla's Incursion [03/22/2021]
• South China Sea: Tensions skyrocket as 'provocative' Beijing swarms region with 'militia [03/21/2021]
• Philippines Says 220 Chinese Boats Have Encroached in South China Sea Reef Claimed by Manila [03/21/2021]
• Former State Official Says Pacific Nations Must See 'Consistent and Reliable' U.S. Presence to Counter China [03/15/2021]
• China slams Trump National Security Adviser for sowing 'chaos' during trip to Philippines [11/24/2020]
• Four years on, Philippine President Duterte is still struggling to show the benefits of being pro-China [09/08/2020]
• We'll keep US military ties as we 'warm' to China: Philippine armed forces chief [09/05/2020]
• South China Sea: 'If China attacks our navy, we'll call the US', Philippines says [08/27/2020]
• Duterte On The South China Sea: 'I Cannot Afford' To Go To War With China [08/03/2020]
• China's 300-mile fishing fleet which is visible from SPACE and hoovers up all sea life is decimating endangered species - and plastic waste thrown overboard is polluting the shores of Darwin's Galapagos Islands, sci
• Manila walks fine line between Beijing and Washington in South China Sea [08/01/2020]
• Philippine President Duterte asks China's Xi Jin Ping: Prioritize Philippines' access to your COVID-19 vaccine [07/27/2020]
• China: In the end, the Big Loser [07/26/2020]
• China, U.S. Escalate Forces, Threats in South China Sea [07/20/2020]
• Vietnam, Philippines criticise Chinese military drills in South China Sea; Both Countries warned of growing insecurity in Southeast Asia at Asean summit [07/02/2020]
• From Indonesia to Philippines: These countries were once hounded by China. Now it's payback time. China is isolated [06/20/2020]
• Trump is right to ditch 5 decades of failed US-China engagement policy [05/31/2020]
• Philippines backs Vietnam after China sinks fishing boat [04/13/2020]
• With US Sideswiped By Coronavirus, Beijing Steps Up Operations In South China Sea [04/12/2020]
• Some COVID-19 test kits from China yield inaccurate results, (Philippine) DOH admits [03/28/2020]
• Ending Philippines-US military pact will affect South China Sea disputes: analysts [02/16/2020]
• Philippines Reports 1st Coronavirus Death Outside China [02/02/2020]
• First Coronavirus death outside China reported in Philippines; Pres. Duterte bans travel from the island nation to China. [02/01/2020]
• Report to Congress on U.S.-China Competition in the South, East China Seas [12/03/2019]
• China has the ability to turn off the Philippine national power grid, officials say [11/27/2019]
• China could 'turn off power' in the Philippines, senate hears [11/21/2019]
• China's New Aircraft Carriers Are a Really Big Deal. As in a total of 6 carriers. [11/11/2019]
• Philippines' president calls on US defense pact to back fight with Beijing in the South China Sea [07/17/2019]
• South China Sea: Indonesia And Vietnam Prove Philippine President Duterte Wrong [04/25/2019]
• Duterte: Philippine Troops Will 'Prepare For Suicide Missions' If China Seizes Disputed Island [04/05/2019]
• China's latest island grab: Fishing 'militia' move on sandbars around Philippines' Thitu Island [03/05/2019]
• Expect Trump to double down on the trade war with China (Short video, and article from Asia Times) [11/24/2018]
• Inside China's 'tantrum diplomacy' at APEC [11/22/2018]
• U.S., Allies Fear Conflict With China Following Maritime Changes (link from Drudgereport) [11/22/2018]
• Chinese control of South China Sea 'short of war' is complete [09/24/2018]
• China's Fishing Fleets Are Fighting a Shadowy War to Expand the Country [02/06/2018]
• China, Russia, and the Long 'Unipolar Moment' [01/17/2018]
• China and Russia oppose UN resolution on Rohingya [12/25/2017]
• South Korea Vying with China as New Benefactor for Philippines [11/20/2017]
• Philippines' Duterte: China threatened 'war' over sea row [05/20/2017]
• Top Philippine Officials Fly to U.S. Carrier in Disputed South China Sea [03/05/2017]
• China, Philippines agree to cooperate on 30 projects worth $3.7 billion [01/23/2017]
• Philippines' pivot to China is just the start: America sleepwalking into disaster in tinder box Asia [11/05/2016]
• As Obama's Clock Winds Down, Revisionist Powers Pounce [China-Philippines] [10/21/2016]
• US on edge over new powder keg in the South China Sea [Philippines in China's Orbit] [10/21/2016]
• Philippine Leader Duterte Ditches U.S. for China, Says 'America Has Lost' [10/20/2016]
• "America Has Lost" - Duterte Announces "Separation" From United States, Alligns With China; (TR) [10/20/2016]
• Duterte says U.S. has lost, aligns Philippines with China [10/20/2016]
• Philippine leader tells Obama 'go to hell', says can buy arms from Russia, China [10/04/2016]
• Philippine leader rejects joint patrols, eyes China weapons [09/13/2016]
• Philippines Sends A Stark Warning To China Over South China Sea Dispute [08/29/2016]
• Philippines' Duterte warns China of 'reckoning' [08/24/2016]
• China asks U.S. to support resumption of talks with Philippines [07/26/2016]
• Beijing sends nuclear capable H-6K bomber over Scarborough Shoal in new South China Sea escalation [07/18/2016]
• China's down but not out, and the Philippines' Duterte knows it [07/14/2016]
• China offers Philippines talks if South China Sea court ignored: China Daily [07/04/2016]
• Kerry warns Beijing over air defense zone for South China Sea [06/04/2016]
• China just ran into a problem with its only friend in the South China Sea [ Indonesia ] [03/29/2016]
• China takes Philippine atoll [03/01/2016]
• US would need massive military bases in the Philippines to alter South China Sea equation [03/01/2016]
• South China Sea disputes increasing demand for U.S. security presence: Pentagon chief [11/01/2015]
• US naval chief asserts navigation rights in contested South China Sea [10/15/2015]
• Sailing in South China Sea not provocative, U.S. says [10/15/2015]
• India, U.S., Japan kick off naval drills likely to annoy China [10/15/2015]
• China's "Ancestral" Claim to South China Sea Islands (Video) [07/01/2015]
• China is putting weapons on its artificial islands in the South China Sea [05/28/2015]
• Philippines to fly over disputed South China Sea: Aquino [05/25/2015]
• U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane [05/21/2015]
• China cautions U.S. Navy on patrols in South China Sea [05/21/2015]
• South China Sea tensions have Filipino leaders hoping the US Navy returns to Subic Bay [05/19/2015]
• Vietnam Buys Deadly New Missiles Capable of Hitting China [04/30/2015]
• Philippine GDP growth to outpace China's from 2016 as Asia's fastest growing economy [02/27/2015]
• Is China Sending America A Message? (Chinese B*t**Slap Barry) [11/10/2014]
• Kerry seeks to calm South China Sea tensions [From failure to failure] [08/09/2014]
• Typhoon Rammasun Heads for China After Lashing Philippines, Killing at Least 38 [07/19/2014]
• World View: Australia Joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in Opposing China [07/13/2014]
• Confrontation in the South China Sea [06/27/2014]
• Historical Fiction: China's South China Sea Claims [06/27/2014]
• South Korea Giving Philippine Navy A Free Ship As Tensions Rise With China [06/22/2014]
• US Navy 'Shaping Events' in South China Sea [05/20/2014]
• Large number of Chinese troops seen heading for China-Vietnam border [05/19/2014]
• Over 3000 Chinese Evacuated (By Boat & Plane) As Vietnam's Anti-China Riots Escalate [05/18/2014]
• Protestors torch factories in southern Vietnam as China protests escalate [05/14/2014]
• Vietnam mobs set fire to foreign factories in anti-China protest [05/14/2014]
• U.S. Warns China Not to Attempt Crimea-Style Action in Asia [04/04/2014]
• "Glory Drenched In Blood Will Pave China's Road To Revitalization" [02/27/2014]
• US v China: is this the new cold war? [02/21/2014]
• China Plans To Seize South China Sea Island From Philippines, Says "Battle Will Be Restricted" [01/12/2014]
• China's Expansionist Designs [11/30/2013]
• U.S. Advises Commercial Jets to Honor China's Rules [11/29/2013]
• China Asked Korea Not to Sell Jets to Philippines [10/21/2013]
• US tacitly backs Philippines in China dispute [10/10/2013]
• Philippines says China moving to occupy disputed reef [09/04/2013]
• Japan vows to help Philippines defend its remote islands amid China sea row [07/08/2013]
• China media warns Philippines of 'counterstrike' in South China Sea [06/29/2013]
• Philippines boosts defense ties to counter China on sea disputes [06/27/2013]
• Fish is at root of rows with Taiwan, China [05/26/2013]
• Daggers Drawn by Philippines and Taiwan in Latest South China Sea Dispute [05/21/2013]
• China lays claim to Okinawa as territory dispute with Japan escalates (2 star general quoted) [05/16/2013]
• 'Be Ready for a War in 2013 and Also Win it', China Tells its Soldiers [01/19/2013]
• Can't We All Just Obey China? [08/07/2012]
• China media tell U.S. to "shut up" over South China Sea tensions [08/05/2012]
• As China tries to strong arm our Filipino allies what will Barack Obama do? [06/02/2012]
• China Warns Phillipines of War [05/10/2012]
• US offered F-16s 'to anticipate rising China' (Indonesia) [12/06/2011]
• South China Sea: The New Battleground [11/29/2011]
• U.S. troops headed to Australia, irking China [11/16/2011]
• China: Don't take peaceful approach for granted (Chicom state propaganda) [11/09/2011]
• War in South China Sea? (Chicom paper calls for war vs Philippines and Vietnam over South China Sea) [10/03/2011]
• Philippines, Vietnam get warships in China spat [08/23/2011]
• Rite of reparation held outside CCP (Philippines Cultural Center) [08/15/2011]
• US 'stands by Philippines' amid South China Sea tension [06/23/2011]
• Philippines and China spar over Spratleys, again [05/03/2011]
• South China Sea: The coming war? [06/27/2010]
• China offers to sell military choppers to the Philippines [09/08/2007]
• All at Sea Over Resources in East Asia (China's sea territorial claim in the South China Sea) [08/27/2007]
• Onboard China's juggernaut (Chinese buses take over Philippines' roads) [02/03/2007]
• Pacific island nations eye China's rise [03/27/2006]
• Philippines, China Boost Economic Ties [04/27/2005]
• China Threatens U.S. Alliances [Background regarding Australia, Philippines,...] [03/23/2005]
• China, Philippines, Vietnam sign pact for Spratlys survey [03/14/2005]
• Philippines: military relations with China do not conflict with any third country [03/03/2005]
• Is China replacing America? [09/10/2004]
• Philippine communists sign "Oslo Joint Statement" - China eyed for next peace talks [02/16/2004]
• China Ministry, WHO Confirm Guangdong Patient Has SARS [01/05/2004]
• China Orders Cats Killed After SARS Tests (10,000 Civets) [01/04/2004]
• RP, China sign $1-billion currency swap scheme [08/31/2003]
• Philippine settlers to Spratlys island - standing up to Communist China [09/24/2002]

[A strike]

Loral.
I was just trying to remember that name in the pantheon of Clinton/Dem corruption/treason.

-fJRoberts-

[2001convSVT]

And the world is a more dangerous place it.

[StAnDeliver]

"Three more major steps are necessary. First, the U.S. needs to recognize that the defense of the Philippines is linked to the defense of Taiwan. Taiwan occupies key geopolitical real estate, as Beijing and Washington recognize. For the PRC, it is a cork in the bottle of the first island chain and prevents the PLAN from easily accessing the Pacific, from defending the PRC’s ports from mining, and from sustaining the Sea Line of Communication from the East and South China Seas. Bases in Taiwan and the Philippines can serve as important deterrents to the PRC’s aggression, and should deterrence fail, each has a role to play in reinforcing the other."

They should have named the nightmare. This is my post from Xi told Biden he plans to take Taiwan — by any means necessary, just over a week ago...

That is not just the average PLA threat to pacify the opposition back in Beijing, that was a promise:

• Sun Tzu: "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war"

• Right now Xi's state-of-mind is that TrumpII will replace Biden just over a year from now.

• The PLA is encouraging, pressing Xi that taking Taiwan now will directly consolidate their illegal South China Sea territorial claims.

• Again, all Xi has to do is first blockade the Phillipines, as China owns all the key intra-island transport lines and the ferry services like 2GO. The CCP could simply stop all the ferry and freight service to all of the Phillipines -- internal and external -- and within 2 weeks those poor Pinoys would be eating each other.

• Xi knows that TrumpII will punch China in its dirty godless confucian face early and often, and they will get the idea that Taiwan is not their hill to die on -- that is the one and only thing they understand.

• Unfortunately that leads to the alternate solution, that Xi was warning The White Hospice that the invasion of Taiwan is imminent, that the CCP knows they could "trade" the Phillipines back to the US in exchange for Taiwan, thinking Biden's advisors like Bubba's bitch boy Jake Sullivan will convince the Senate to "save face" Confucian-style in this manner -- compounding defeat with humilitation, a revenge that the Chinese burn with -- and the US military junta-in-reserve is already on board with this solution.

[AppyPappy]

I think I read somewhere that China controls their electrical grid.