A Race For Wisconsin's 4th District? (Black Republican may have a chance in open seat)

Political State Report: Straight From the Trenches ^ | April 4, 2004 | Owen

[AuH2ORepublican]

A Race For Wisconsin's 4th District?

You may remember that in January Congressman Jerry Kleczka decided not to run for his 11th term. He's a staunch liberal Democrat who has represented Wisconsin's 4th district for the last 20 years. The 4th District consists of the city of Milwaukee and a few of the suburbs.

It was widely believed by most, including me, that this seat is a solid Democratic seat, but that belief may be unfounded.

The Republican candidate who is running for this seat is Corey Hoze. He is a lifetime Milwaukee resident who has worked both in government and in the private sector. He is smart, conservative, and black.

Furthermore, it appears that Mr. Hoze has the backing of one of the most powerful political players in Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson. Tommy Thompson served as Governor for 14 years before resigning to serve as the HHS Secretary for President Bush. Although he does not currently hold any office in Wisconsin (obviously), he is still enormously popular and, more importantly, he still has a massive political apparatus that is largely intact. He has the contacts and the organization to pull significant weight in Wisconsin. Did I mention that Cory Hoze has resigned as HHS' Midwest Regional Director to run for this seat?

It looks like Cory Hoze is poised to get a significant majority of the district's vote from the more conservative suburbs and at least compete in Milwaukee's inner city. The fact that the Republicans think that Hoze has a chance was signaled with Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert's visit to Milwaukee to campaign for him.

It also appears that the Democrats, who obviously see Wisconsin's 4th District as a safe seat, aren't putting up very formidable candidates. The most prominent and likely contender is State Senator Gwen Moore. Senator Moore most recently made the news when she threw a temper tantrum on the floor of the state senate during the debate over concealed carry. She is a classic race warlord whose district consists of Milwaukee's inner city. Here race-baiting, temper, and intellectual shortcomings will not play well outside of the inner city.

One of the other prominent Democratic contenders is State Senator Tim Carpenter. Senator Carpenter is the openly gay ultra liberal Senator who shared in Senator Moore's temper tantrum.

If the Democrats put up a wacky ultra liberal candidate, it is likely to push many of the moderate voters into the camp of Corey Hoze.

We may have a race after all.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Wisconsin's 4th congressional district (the City of Milwaukee and a few of its close-in suburbs) gave Bush only 30.3% of the vote in 2000, and its population is 33% black and 11% Hispanic. Those numbers aren't very good for us, but if one of the two white homosexual candidates (state senator Tim Carpenter or state rep Shirley Krug) wins the primary over black state senator Gwen Moore (who appears to be a Cynthia McKinney/Corrine Brown type liberal), it might give black conservative Republican Corey Hoze a chance to win. The district has a lot of white liberals, enough so that Bush was held to only 40% among non-blacks (mostly Anglos, but as much as 10% of voters were Hispanic), but against a gay or lesbian liberal I have to assume that Hoze will get well over 50% of the non-black vote. And among blacks, it is possible that Hoze can utilize issues such as gay marriage and school vouchers to increase the GOP's share of the black vote. But he'd have to increase it by a heck of a lot, since even if Hoze manages to get 58% of the non-black vote (which would be very difficult against a white liberal, even a gay one), he would still need 34% of the black vote to win the election. Social conservatism and school choice alone won't convince 34% of Milwaukee blacks to vote for a Republican, so Hoze would need a lot of disgruntled Gwen Moore supporters to lend their votes to the GOP candidate because (A) they're pissed off at the white Democrat who won and (B) to allow the black Republican to win and thus allow Moore to run again in 2006.

If, however, Gwen Moore wins the Democrat nomination, Hoze probably would not be able to get over 20% of the black vote, meaning that he would need 65% of the non-black vote. Such a percentage is pretty much unheard of for a Republican within the confines of the 4th congressional district. But with a Democrat candidate as controversial as Gwen Moore, Hoze cannot be written off. So, incredible as it may seem, a black conservative Republican may have a shot in Milwaukee's congressional district, and his name is not Sheriff David Clarke.

BTW, Corey Hoze appears to be an excellent candidate. Here is his campaign site: http://www.coreyhozeforcongress.com/

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[AuH2ORepublican]

Black conservative Corey Hoze has a good profile for his district, and may actually have a chance in a heavily-Democrat Milwaukee-based district. A few highlights from his campaign site:

Corey will work tirelessly in Congress to cut your taxes and fight any attempt to raise taxes on working families.

Corey will work to create a climate for our District that stimulates job creation and economic development – especially in areas where immediate help is needed to put our citizens back to work.

Corey will work to build a new vision for our children’s schools in which every child has access to excellence in a competitive market of public, private, charter, and home schools. Our children deserve it, and our future demands it.

Corey will work to cut the cost of health insurance and make coverage more accessible to families. He will also work hard to make it cheaper and easier for small businesses to provide health insurance to their employees.

Corey will work to improve the business climate in Southeastern Wisconsin by fighting against high taxes and costly regulations that choke off job opportunities and business investments.

Corey will work to remove barriers to home ownership and entrepreneurship, ensuring everyone has the opportunity to realize the American dream of prosperity.

Corey will oppose partial birth abortion and always vote pro-life.

Corey will work to keep our nation secure and support the fight against terrorism.

[deport]

Any thoughts/comments?

[mhking]

Black conservative ping

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[Victoria Delsoul]

(Black Republican may have a chance in open seat)

Big bump to that!

[moonman]

Good Luck Corey Hoze!

[Sinner6]

here is a previous article with an interview with Hoze

[AuH2ORepublican]

"here is a previous article with an interview with Hoze"

---

Where is here? : )

[Sinner6]

Ok, I'll get it right this time.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1111346/posts

[JohnnyZ]

A relatively weak opponent and an attractive GOP candidate with real backing can indeed make this a close race. But those last couple points to turn a close loss into a Win are tough to get. Maybe the district will get a good dose of BC-04 turnout $$$. I know they're (BC-04 & WisGOP) focusing on Ron Kind's district already.

[Lexinom]

Gwen Moore (who appears to be a Cynthia McKinney/Corrine Brown type liberal)

Would this be the "Every chaud a planned and wanted chaud" type of liberal minority female?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Would this be the "Every chaud a planned and wanted chaud" type of liberal minority female?"

---

Not only that, apparently Gwen Moore's a real loudmouth. When the Wisconsin Senate was debating school choice, she broke Senate rules by taking the floor 9 times (7 more than allowed) to try to derail the vote. And while I would hope that she would not share Ms. McKinney's and Ms. Brown's hatred of white folks, she was the main sponsor of a bill that would prohibit police officers from taking race into account when considering whether someone's behavior is suspicious, which sounds okay on paper, but in the real world everyone knows that a white teenager who drives up to a drug point in Southeast DC is more likely to be there to buy drugs than if he were black, and in any case such ban on supposed "racial profiling" would give perpetrators a ready-made excuse for when they get caught (they can always say "he searched me in part because I was black, so it was an illegal search").

Republican candidate Corey Hoze is a strong supporter of school choice, and could use the voucher issue (which is very popular among inner-city blacks, especially in Milwaukee) to his advantage and increase the GOP's share of the black vote even against a black opponent such as Moore, and if Hoze can get large margins among non-blacks he might just pull off the upset. But if the Democrats nominate one of the two white ultraliberal homosexual candidates, Tim Carpenter or Shirley Krug, Hoze could win following a different route. Compound the white liberal candidate's opposition to school choice to his or her support for special rights for gays (not very popular among blacks, who comprise 33% of the district's population) and the fact that he or she would have defeated a black candidate in the primary, and Hoze may get enough of the black vote to win the upset of the year.

[mean lunch lady]

Wow! You have the coolest FReeper name! I am in awe of your cleverness.