Posted on 04/15/2016 10:42:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Via Red State, not a huge deal but worth flagging in case there’s another poll this weekend showing his numbers dipping a bit in New York on the eve of the primary. That would suggest a trend, and that would be a big deal given what’s at stake. To be clear: Trump’s going to romp in NY on Tuesday night, winning by 25 points or better, and will pick up something like 75 delegates even in a worst-case scenario. But since his path to 1,237 is so difficult, it matters a lot whether he ends up with 75 in New York or 95, which is what he’d get if he sweeps the state. Every delegate he leaves on the table now will have to be made up for later; finishing with 75 in New York means he’ll likely need to find another 10-20 somewhere in California on June 7th, where he won’t have home-field advantage.
The reason this poll is significant (apart from the enormous 14,000-person sample size) is that 50 percent is a magic number in New York. If you hit 50 statewide, you get all 11 of the state’s at-large delegates. If you don’t, the second-place finisher gets some of them proportionally. More importantly, if you hit 50 percent in a congressional district, you get all three of that district’s delegates. If you don’t, you get two delegates and the second-place finisher gets one. There are 27 congressional districts, meaning that the difference between Trump hitting 49 percent in every district and hitting 50 there is … 27 delegates. That’s a big haul and potentially crucial to his ability to reach 1,237. (To put it in perspective, Cruz’s prize for sweeping Colorado’s delegate elections was 37 delegates.) So when a poll drops showing him at 49 percent statewide, we sit up and pay attention. The margins matter on Tuesday night. A lot.
If we direct our attention to the figure above, we can see that statewide he is also polling at 49%, so whether he’s able to take the statewide delegates by “winner-take-all” rules outright is up in the air. The even better news for Trump is that he’s hitting the 50% threshold in 11/27 districts and is within three percentage points of six more (see figure below). Just by keeping 50% in those 11 districts and a plurality in the others, Trump would get 65 delegates…
Further, if we look at shifts between the opinion shares we observed this week (4.11-4.13) and compare them to our last poll (3.22-3.24), we don’t see monumental moves against Trump across numerous districts (see figure below). We do note a generally favorable Kasich trend of between 2 and 6 points in most districts. While this is generally good, these shifts are unlikely to change the order of results, and thus unlikely to shift all-important delegate totals on Election Day. In other words, while we believe Kasich appears to be making some progress in many districts, it is not enough to change delegate totals significantly.
If Trump were to finish below 50 percent in 16 districts, that’s 16 delegates going to Kasich or Cruz (assuming the second-place finisher gets at least 20 percent of the vote, which seems inevitable in a three-way race). That’s … not a great outcome for Trump. If he also finishes below 50 statewide, that would cost him another four delegates by Phil Kerpen’s estimation. The last survey by this pollster, Optimus, taken three weeks ago had him winning 15 of New York’s 27 districts with an outright majority, meaning that he’s actually slipped a bit this month. A few days ago, Nate Silver published a state-by-state roadmap to the rest of the primaries and estimated that Trump needs 91 delegates from New York to stay on the path to 1,237. Silver’s more conservative projections of how he might do there put him in the low 80s. Optimus’s new data has him in the mid 70s. If there’s such a thing as having a “bad night” when you win a big state primary by crushing your opponents, that’s what it would look like.
But look: How likely is it, realistically, that Trump’s going to fall short in New York on Tuesday? Optimus found 14 percent still undecided in this poll. Among that 14 percent, 17 percent are already leaning Trump — more than are leaning Kasich or Cruz — and another 59 percent are still making up their minds. There’s every reason to think the bulk of them will end up tilting towards the native son who’s on TV 24/7. His average in NY at RCP over the last few weeks is 53.4 percent, with one recent poll putting him at 56 percent and another placing him at 60(!). There’s every reason to think he’ll crack 50 statewide and plenty of reason, I think, to believe that he’ll easily pull 50 in a majority of New York’s districts. If we’re being real, there are probably eight to 10 districts where there’s some suspense about the outcome, and the only suspense is whether Trump will win them with a plurality or majority. If his realistic worst-case scenario is, say, 88 delegates, then he’s basically still where he needs to be to clinch.
Here’s video of Ted Cruz speaking last night at the New York City GOP gala and finding himself roundly ignored, presumably because of his crack months ago about “New York values.” Trump can stand onstage at a national debate and smirkingly assure the country that he’ll issue illegal orders to the military and still be applauded by his local GOP, but God forbid you insult their parochial community pride.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Oh, Vet, PLEASE! With all due respect; for God’s sake, GIVE IT UP.
We need Donald, an outsider, a brilliant businessman/CEO who knows how to run things and get things done, (Donald has made billions by being smart enough to run his companies. HE CAN RUN THIS COUNTRY AS WELL.),a tough pit bull who is not ‘owned’ by anyone, is not crippled by PC and has the guts to say what We the People think and attack those responsible for this country being on the brink of disaster.
He has already demonstrated this time and time again. No one else has had the guts to do this.
NO ONE.
And he CAN beat Hillary or Bernie. He knows all the dirt on criminal Hillary and commie Bernie.
Not being PC crippled, he will SLAUGHTER them.
There is no way he would let himself be beaten by the likes of those two after coming so far!
Cruz, when you factor in his immense unlikeability, his bizarre religion, his Senate attendance record, his various lies and dirty campaign tricks, inexperience, his voting record, obvious GOPe support- (not to mention HE WAS BORN IN CANADA!), CANNOT beat either Hillary or Bernie.
He CANNOT- no matter how much be bloviates about being a Constitutional lawyer and all his ‘glorious achievements’.
No matter the usual empty promises, He CANNOT.
They will make a laughing stock of the junior senator from Texas.
THEY WILL RIP TED CRUZ TO SHREDS!
We need not be afraid of Donald and his lack of a political background. He will surround himself with equally brilliant people via his cabinet and others and get things done. He understands that he will need this kind of help.
He will keep his promises for he dare not sully the Trump name. He wants to go down in history as one of our greats- and I believe he has the ability and resources to do just that.
He will secure the border, investigate and deport the dangerous ‘immigrants’ Obama has imported and distributed through the U.S- to the point that none of us anywhere are safe anymore.
This is by far the most important thing we need done at the present time.
OUR LONGED FOR REVOLUTION IS HERE AT LAST.
WE THE PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION AGAINST OUR CORRUPT GOVERNMENT AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS IS HERE- AND IT WAS STARTED AND IS BEING LED BY DONALD TRUMP.
Finally, We the People have someone in our corner.
He hears and understands our anger and disgust with the GOPe. He is one of us- despite his billions.
HE IS AN AMERICAN WHO LOVES HIS COUNTRY- not a foreign born with sealed records.
Haven’t we had enough of that?
Have we learned nothing?
I realize some are turned off by his occasional use of ‘bad words’ never before used by an American POTUS candidate, but
He is smart enough to know he must be more ‘presidential’ if elected- to clean up his occasional use of ‘potty’ language.
Right now, he is speaking to us in the manner in which most of us speak.
Ted Cruz has proven time and time again that he is owned by the GOPe, and if elected it will be ‘business as usual’. He will not derail their gravy train.
(not to mention being from a bizarre religious cult who ‘speak in tongues’, having a preacher father who declares his son anointed to spread the wealth, a preacher father who invited a man to speak in the cult church who advocated KILLING homosexuals(!)) Cruz fully believes and condones the bizarre teachings of his father and the cult church.
I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of having a foreigner as our POTUS. I want an AMERICAN who loves his country in office.
Donald is our voice.
He is our last chance to pull America back from the brink of total destruction- to make America great again
Trump’s been under 50% since the start of voting.
Does anyone believe he will garner the majority in the general election?
We’re gonna lose again :(
Matthew 15:8-9New King James Version (NKJV)
8 ‘These people draw near to Me with their mouth,
And[a] honor Me with their lips,
But their heart is far from Me.
9 And in vain they worship Me,
Teaching as doctrines the commandments of men.’
Luke 6:43-44
43”For there is no good tree which produces bad fruit, nor, on the other hand, a bad tree which produces good fruit. 44”For each tree is known by its own fruit. For men do not gather figs from thorns, nor do they pick grapes from a briar bush.
If you are going to use the Word as a measure apply it to the DC Insider who has worked to sell your families future to the Globalists and uses deception like a skin to advance his power.
I agree completely.
Texans have a right to be p*ssed off at the stuff which has happened in this country about the south, and about Texas. I completely agree. In my opinion that is EXACTLY what all of this noise about Cruz is about.
It is about Texas. And I agree with everyone in Texas that is something for them to stand up proudly about, over and over again.
But they are not helping anyone in America, by protesting right now, supporting Cruz. They are helping the GLOBALISTS.
Cruz is not the right guy. Trump is the right guy. Cruz was born in Canada, his wife worked for Goldman Sachs, and Cruz is simply another career politician.
He is GOPe.
No. sorry Texans you have picked the wrong guy, the wrong time, the wrong contest, and need to stand down.
Trump is the guy who needs to win. He needs to win, and you all need to help him win.
There will be plenty of time, and plenty of issues about which you can stand up proudly and bash various peoples faces brutally (symbolically of course) about any number of issues.
Have at it.
But voters want Trump. Strongly so.
Don’t make Texas the centerpoint in this contest. Cruz is not someone you want to go to the wall for.
He just isn’t.
That's as far as anyone needs to read
The fix has been ordered for a Kasich “ surge”
Now for some doctored polls to support it
“This poll is from Optimus, the same company that had Trump leading by 10 points in Wisconsin a few days before he lost...”
That is incorrect. That poll in Wisconsin was ARG: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html
You are dealing with global pros who know how to rig an election by tampering with selected districts via absentees and machines that mysteriously switch names ( how come there is not one story from this election of a machine switching to trumps name?) plus “ running out of ballots” power failures at the polls or whatever it takes to suppress one man
Watch for some strange Kasich surges in these selected areas
It’s why he’s being paid to stay in the race
He really thinks if it goes to 3-4 balloting at the convention he’ll be on the ticket ... That’s why he needs no deal with trump or Cruz who has just about completed his usefulness as a tool
Or there are some people who simply vote by emotion and don't let facts get in the way
If trump doesn't get the nomination he will not be a choice in the general
What does your husband like about Cruz's track record as a senator on dealing with immigration and the economy? Accomplishments? Does he believe Cruz will abolish the IRS in his first hundred days? Because he says so? Or maybe your spouse likes the way the us went under 4 years of hillary as Secretary of State, with Arab Spring, the U.S. backing Al Qaeda and ISIS vs Assad, the toppling of Libya which is now an ISIS redoubt, and of course, Benghazi
The pros have delivered the America we have today. Would you hire them again?
Trump supporters are no slouches at that either friend!!!
Let me guess....you don’t think some trump supporters are guilty of the same thing!!
Oh! That’s choice...a guy from Taxachuchettes dissing Texas!!!
And yet just a few short months ago Trump was a card carrying liberal democrat!!!And that ain’t a roommate saying it...it’s out of his own mouth!!!
“Every delegate he leaves on the table now will have to be made up for later; finishing with 75 in New York means he’ll likely need to find another 10-20 somewhere in California on June 7th, where he won’t have home-field advantage.”
Who will have the home field advantage in California? Will Cruz now claim CA as his home state?
“The verse was intended to limit vengeance to the nature of the offense.”
The verse was intended to make the punishment fit the crime, and a version of it is in our Bill of Rights.
Give it up already, you're a total bore.
“I want a wall. And cages. Oh, and shock sticks”, which could very well be exactly what happens to anyone, even Trumpbots that dare disagree with ANYTHING Emperor Trump.
You don’t get that with Cruz.
Be very careful of what you wish for.
Trump knows exactly his audience. They don’t need no stinkin history or facts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.