Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Nate Silver: Clinton one state away from losing Electoral College
The Hill's Ballot Box Blog ^ | November 6, 2016 | Jessie Hellman

Posted on 11/06/2016 11:14:34 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the presidential election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said Sunday.

While the Democratic presidential nominee has a 65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not "in a terribly safe position," the pollster said on ABC's "This Week." "The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago," Silver said.

Silver came to notoriety by correctly predicting President Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012.

Clinton is weaker among Midwestern voters, while Obama had leads in states like Ohio....

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Michigan; New Mexico; Virginia; Wisconsin; Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: electoralcollege; hillary; polls; trump
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-99 next last
To: taildragger; LS

LS’s prediction thread here? (or if not, where please? tia):

Two Days Out! Final Impressions
self | 11/6/2016 | LS

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3489994/posts


41 posted on 11/06/2016 11:54:42 AM PST by SteveH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: NohSpinZone

Nate’s hedging his bets!


42 posted on 11/06/2016 11:54:56 AM PST by nobamanomore
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: NohSpinZone

I say, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado.


43 posted on 11/06/2016 11:55:57 AM PST by GeorgiaDawg32
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: oblomov
He has a bias, but it isn’t as bad as most of the predictions.

Here's my bias. If one of us sweaty Trump supporters said good morning to him, he'd probably file a police report. Just hits me that way. You have to admit that if you read that article, you see that he is given to flights of fancy.

44 posted on 11/06/2016 11:56:10 AM PST by Stentor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: SteveH

4% national 300-20 EV


45 posted on 11/06/2016 11:57:31 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: NohSpinZone

Be still, my heart.


46 posted on 11/06/2016 11:59:15 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic ( “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: RKBA Democrat; Lazamataz

Laz would hit it! Happy birthday Laz, a FR legend.


47 posted on 11/06/2016 11:59:24 AM PST by buckalfa (I am deplorable.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: stuck_in_new_orleans
Do it yourself if you think differently

In other words, you're just talking out of your alimentary ejection orifice.

Thought so.

48 posted on 11/06/2016 12:00:35 PM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Flavious_Maximus

So, if what you wrote is true (and I have no particular reason to dispute it), then... why isn’t vote fraud discussed front and center among talking heads, pollsters, FEC officials, fawk, even the candidates themselves, and so on?

There should be a “fraud” factor for every state, recognized and accounted for, just as every other factor under the sun is seemingly recognized and accounted for by these (scientific, super-accurate, yada yada) pollsters... just wondering what i am missing here...


49 posted on 11/06/2016 12:02:46 PM PST by SteveH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: Windflier

I think Silver is off.....But with Trump, I’ll take Silver’s odds (today) of Trump having a more than 1 in 3 chance of winning. Trump probably looks at those odds and says: “Piece of cake...I’m in!”


50 posted on 11/06/2016 12:05:35 PM PST by Az Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: LS

Which is the most detailed thread? (I am slow, and slower today than usual, help me please lol)

Do you mean you are predicting 4% popular vote differential in Trump’s favor, with 300-320 EV going for Trump? (That would be sweet...)

(Just got up, and still trying to come up to speed, sorry...)


51 posted on 11/06/2016 12:06:27 PM PST by SteveH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

To: Az Joe
I’ll take Silver’s odds (today) of Trump having a more than 1 in 3 chance of winning.

The board is shifting so fast, by Monday it'll be 2:1 odds of Trump winning.

52 posted on 11/06/2016 12:07:31 PM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: Blennos

Perhaps you mean that you don’t think that Nate Silver is as honest as he is purported to be...


53 posted on 11/06/2016 12:11:19 PM PST by SteveH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Windflier

Exactly. Watch the polls tomorrow about 5 p.m. THOSE polls are the only ones that count.


54 posted on 11/06/2016 12:11:51 PM PST by GeorgiaDawg32
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: oblomov

Daily Kos is a far far left nut group. Take anything said by them as coming straight from the Hillary camp.


55 posted on 11/06/2016 12:13:52 PM PST by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: SteveH

Correct


56 posted on 11/06/2016 12:16:12 PM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s hard to three peat in sports and election calling.
His polls this year are junk. He is sucking on the liberal teat this year. Almost reminds me of a Clinton.


57 posted on 11/06/2016 12:17:18 PM PST by Kozy (new age haruspex)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet; All
DON't become overconfident. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE CLINTON CRIME FAMILY.

The rats won't let go of the executive position without a h*ll of a fight. The dumbed down, the low intelligence, the gibsmedats who put the Marxist/Muslim in our White House are still out there

Hillary is so close, and she knows this is her last chance. She will resort to anything

the Rats are scared to death Donald will get in and undo the damage Obama has done to our country.

THERE WILL BE MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD.

As Donald said, 'We are at a crossroads in our history'. We MUST win this election!

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OF OUR LIFETIME

GET OUT AND VOTE- and pray for his safety and victory!

WE MUST MAKE THIS THE BIGGEST REPUBLICAN VOTER TURNOUT IN HISTORY!


(See Tag)

58 posted on 11/06/2016 12:17:46 PM PST by patriot08 (5th generation Texan-(girl type) ANGRY? REFUSE TO VOTE? VOTING 3RD PARTY? Write In? HELLO HILLARY!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NohSpinZone

Battleground Blue states with highest percentage of White population. I believe Trump will take FL & 2 or 3 of these and win

Non-Hispanic White Population % By State

2. Maine 93.9%

12. Wisconsin 82.5%

13. Minnesota 81.9%

19. Pennsylvania 78.2%

20. Oregon 77.3%

22. Michigan 75.9%

29. Colorado 69.1%

35. Virginia 63.5%

46. Nevada 52.1%


59 posted on 11/06/2016 12:19:25 PM PST by Az Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Windflier

Nate Silver’s board is not shifting and hasn’t since Thursday. He is on the CF payroll.


60 posted on 11/06/2016 12:20:37 PM PST by Kozy (new age haruspex)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-99 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson