[rightwingcrazy]

“overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points”

Fraud factor neglected. No model is perfect.

[4Liberty]

[arthurus]

Do the models factor in the vote fraud that will be in high gear in 2020 and the illegals that will vote in far haigher numbers than previously? The SocialDemocrats showed themselves in the last two elections that fraud and all the fraud tactics get no real blowback. Counts are accepted no matter what the disparity with available voters. The SocDem ruled cities in certain states have for many cycles attempted to provide the winning vote margin for their states by vote manufacture. In 2020 it will happen in ALL SocDem cities. There will be complaints as usual but all the extra votes, even obviously fraudulent votes will meekly be accepted by the Republicans as legitimate even as they bitch about it minimally. The SocDems thought they had made their Revolution in 2016. They will go for broke in 2020. It doesn't much matter who winds up at the top of the ticket for them. I don't know how DJT can get control of the voting as it is in the Constitution that it is a State matter but he must.

Positive ID
voting day only voting
Voting at designated polling places only.
Paper ballots.
No absentee voting except possibly for serving military.

[txrefugee]

Everything depends on Texas getting a handle on voter fraud. O’Rourke’s race against Cruz was the dry run, with college students and illegal aliens fertile areas for cheating in every urban area. Only the patriots in the rural counties and West Texas kept the weirdo from winning Cruz’s seat.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

One major factor in 2016 was that Crooked Hillary was a horrible candidate - indeed detested by many. The 2020 candidates are even worse. Add their (beyond) radical ideas and a good economy, and my “model” shows a near 50-state Trump landslide.

[SunkenCiv]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3752459/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3752459/posts

[Mr. K]

"The model correctly predicting an electoral victory for Trump in 2016, but overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points, which Rattner attributed to Trump’s personal unfavorables."

They forgot the voter fraud.

I would not doubt that they could manufacture (and suppress) 5% easily. they control all the major areas- and all you need to win is something like 37 out of some 2000 counties.

And they pulled out all stops for HilLiARy... and if we don't do something they will do even more this time BECAUSE THERE SEEMS TO BE NO CONSEQUENCES...!!!

[Dr. Ursus]

They stole at least four seats in California!

[Sacajaweau]

None of us look at polls as being truthful. That went out with Bubba.

[LS]

LS’s modeling, which had Trump with “300-320 electoral votes” as of AUGUST 2015, has Trump at between 310 and 320 electoral votes. I think he’ll hold every 2016 state and add NH and/or MN.

He has a shot at adding ME and NV.

[Tanniker Smith]

If you look at the Ropers numbers for 2016, , you can see that Trump only got 8% of the black vote, which was 12% of the total. If he moves into double-digits, the Dems are in trouble. If he gets it near 20%, the Dems are sunk.

I wouldn't mind seeing him push the Hispanic vote over 30%, and I was surprised to see that he got 28 last time -- the media make it sound like only white people voted for him.

The other thing I notice is that he won all the income groups (granted, those are arbitrary groupings) except less than $50,000. Now if there are fewer people making under $50,000, does that work in Trump's favor, or do they take their biases into the next bracket?