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Trump’s chances in 2020 aren’t nearly as bad as people think
The Washington Post ^ | June 17, 2019 | Henry Olsen

Posted on 06/17/2019 12:10:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

President Trump will officially announce that he’s running for reelection at a massive rally in Orlando on Tuesday. The early line on his chances: He’s not the favorite, but he’s far from down and out.

The leak of unfavorable reelection numbers from Trump’s own internal polling, which show him behind Democratic candidate Joe Biden in many key swing states, has triggered a rush to judgment among many analysts. While carefully acknowledging things could change, they note that Trump’s job approval rating has been negative through most of his presidency and that he trails most prospective Democratic nominees in the key Midwestern swing states he needs to win. The conclusion is easy to draw: Trump’s probably a goner, despite the strong economy.

It’s true that Trump has been historically unpopular during his tenure. While other presidents have won reelection with similarly low job approval ratings, they all have been in positive territory at some point during their presidency. What’s more, the past two incumbents who ran for reelection, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, both received a share of the popular vote that was extremely similar to their job approval rating right before Election Day. Trump has never polled above 44 percent job approval for any extended stretch of his presidency. Unless that improves a lot, he’s not going to win the popular vote.

But as 2016 showed, he doesn’t have to win the popular vote to win an election.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2020; 2020election; districtofcolumbia; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2020; electoralcollege; faithlesselectors; henryolsen; jeffbezos; mediawingofthednc; nationalpopularvote; npv; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; smearmachine; trump; washingtoncompost; washingtonpost
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1 posted on 06/17/2019 12:10:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ah! The first concession speech!


2 posted on 06/17/2019 12:12:02 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I guess I’m not “people.”


3 posted on 06/17/2019 12:13:09 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrat's John Dean])
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Trump’s chances in 2020 aren’t nearly as bad as people think

No they aren't. But winning isn't the given some people seem to think either. It's going to be a fight all the way to the end.

4 posted on 06/17/2019 12:13:46 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Any American who truly understands where we are, and where we could be heading under the control of people like Sanders, Warner, Pelosi, AOC, Buttigieg, or essentially any of the cadre of Democrats on parade, but who would still consider voting Democrat, is lost and cannot truly be considered pro-American. It's that simple.
5 posted on 06/17/2019 12:14:24 PM PDT by neverevergiveup
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I didn’t think they were bad...


6 posted on 06/17/2019 12:20:17 PM PDT by Persevero (Desmond is not -Amazing- Desmond is -Abused-)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Looking at his opposition, he can beat the crap out of any of them so far.


7 posted on 06/17/2019 12:22:07 PM PDT by kaehurowing
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He’ll never get elected President, polls have Hillary 99-1 to get elected, oh, wait...here we go again.


8 posted on 06/17/2019 12:22:52 PM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: DoodleDawg
We're running out of time to decide if Trump was more honest with us than one term Bush.

In 2020, IT'S JUSTICE STUPID!

9 posted on 06/17/2019 12:37:28 PM PDT by SENTINEL (Kneel down to God. Stand up to tyrants. STICK TO YOUR GUNS !)
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To: DoodleDawg

Exactly. The race is definitely losable. This is still a country that elected Hussein twice and is capable of handing Trump a loss with their formidable arsenal of fake news outlets and massive numbers of communist/low-info voters.

However, they’re also running on the most insane political platform I’ve ever seen in my lifetime with calls for massive energy tax increases, replete with curbing air travel and beef consumption, government funded abortions and reparations for slavery, which was abolished 150 years ago. I’d be astounded if a skilled politician like Trump would let them continue to skate on this madness like the media has until now.


10 posted on 06/17/2019 12:37:36 PM PDT by MountainWalker
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He’s a shoe-in. First President since Reagan that’s loyal to the country, and it shows.

Only way he can screw this up is to start another war in the Middle East... or to fail to take action to prevent the industrial scale election fraud the Dems are certain to attempt.


11 posted on 06/17/2019 12:44:55 PM PDT by thoughtomator (The Clinton Coup attempt was a worse attack on the USA than was 9/11)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
George W. Bush and Barack Obama, both received a share of the popular vote that was extremely similar to their job approval rating right before Election Day. Trump has never polled above 44 percent job approval for any extended stretch of his presidency. Unless that improves a lot, he’s not going to win the popular vote.
I shot my drink right through my nose when I read that. Give me a minute to mop up.

12 posted on 06/17/2019 12:49:55 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Washington Post and other MSM outlets have to walk a careful line.

1) Everybody knows Trump will lose. -> People like to vote for a winner.

2) But Trump could win. -> They don’t want complacent voters staying home on election day.


13 posted on 06/17/2019 12:51:28 PM PDT by the_Watchman
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Not sure about you guys, but I never did think his chances were bad. I’m just waiting for the indictments and arrests to begin.


14 posted on 06/17/2019 12:56:33 PM PDT by ManHunter (You can run, but you'll only die tired... Army snipers: Reach out and touch someone)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

May I remind everyone that THE WASHINGTON POST is NOT a real newspaper?? - Instead it’s nothing more in 2019 than a “house organ” of the DIMocRATS Party.

Anyone who believes anything that THE POST claims & that is more controversial than the latest sports scores & the weather report is a CLUELESS FOOL, imVho.
(Sine the War in RNV, I’ve trusted NOTHING substantive that the WaPo claims, absent documentary PROOF, as I long ago lost count of the knowing LIES that the “news” paper printed.)

Yours, TMN78247


15 posted on 06/17/2019 1:02:38 PM PDT by TMN78247 ("VICTORY or DEATH", William Barrett Travis, LtCol, comdt., Fortress of the Alamo, Bejar, 1836)
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To: MountainWalker
However, they’re also running on the most insane political platform I’ve ever seen in my lifetime with calls for massive energy tax increases, replete with curbing air travel and beef consumption, government funded abortions and reparations for slavery, which was abolished 150 years ago

It's not uncommon for candidates of both parties to run to the extreme and promise wild things during the primaries and then back towards reality for the general. Remember that at various times Trump promised Mexico would pay for the wall, that he would pay off the debt in 8 years, his health care plan would cover everyone in the country with better options and for less money than Obamacare, that the infrastructure would be rebuilt, Muslims banned, and many other things. Reality eventually sets in.

16 posted on 06/17/2019 1:14:47 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: DoodleDawg; All

The real fight will be voter FRAUD.


17 posted on 06/17/2019 1:22:38 PM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isnÂ’t common anymore.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Leftwing’s chances in 2020 are as bad as people think.


18 posted on 06/17/2019 1:29:00 PM PDT by MarvinStinson
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To: DoodleDawg

“It’s going to be a fight all the way to the end. “

Trump is strategic enough to rile up the Dems to violence which will rally the masses behind him.

If CWII starts the odds are in Trumps favor.

I choose the side with the weapons.


19 posted on 06/17/2019 2:06:21 PM PDT by tired&retired (Blessings)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
".... But as 2016 showed, he doesn’t have to win the popular vote to win an election....."

It wasn't just the 2016 election that showed that. None of the presidential elections were ever won by winning the popular vote.

The media makes it sound like winning by the popular vote is an option.

This country is not a democracy. This is not a one-man, one-vote system. You don't win the presidency by winning the popular vote.

The US as founded is a constitutional representative republic. The Electoral College is mandated by the US Constitution.

But these are democRATS we're speaking of so we can forgive them if they don't believe in the Constitution except to the extent it benefits them and hurts Republicans.

20 posted on 06/17/2019 2:07:05 PM PDT by HotHunt (Been there. Done that.)
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