Posted on 12/09/2003 12:01:28 PM PST by rightcoast
With the recent endorsement of Howard Dean by former Vice President Al Gore, you can officially close the book on Joe Lieberman's candidacy (as if it weren't closed already).
Further, John "F-word" Kerry is similarly doomed in that he is being crushed by Dean in New Hampshire polls, and is trailing him even in his home state of Massachusetts. More importantly, Kerry can't raise the money he needs to dig himself out of a hole. Finally, Kerry is unlikely to get any last-minute rushes of support from any important players, because of Gore's Dean endorsement; and also because Kerry is more important to Democrats right now to remain a Senator beyond 2004. I haven't heard anyone really speculate about this, but the Democrats' Senate 2004 prospects are looking grim at best, and they certainly don't want to lose Kerry's seat to a Gov. Mitt Romney Republican appointment. It isn't about Senate control, which they have no prayer at; it's about keeping the GOP as far away from 60 seats as possible.
Dean was already the frontrunner, but now he's the odds-on favorite, Big Time, head honcho, big cheese, he's-the-man candidate for 2004. Gore has helped seal that.
Dean still faces serious competition from Dick Gephardt and Wesley Clark, but both of these candidates need to score important primary victories to propel their momentum if they have any prayer of catching up with Dean.
Two dates to look at are January 19 and February 3. January 19 is Iowa, where Gephardt needs to win to gain momentum in this race; in fact, he must win here, because doing so will instantly gain him status as the main challenger in this race.
On February 3, there are contests in "flyover country" that will determine the candidates' broader appeal throughout the country. Also important is the South Carolina contest, where Clark's performance will determine his appeal in the Southern states.
I feel that Dean already has New Hampshire sealed up and won. If he wins Iowa, it will probably kill Gephardt. He doesn't need to win here, though; he just needs to remain close to Gephardt; beating Clark decisively would also be a big boost.
If Dean wins South Carolina, I think it's over; he'll win the nomination, because it will be virtually impossible to stop his progress, especially if he clobbers Edwards. Edwards must win South Carolina to stay alive, but I think that's academic: he won't win the nomination in the end.
If things haven't been decided by then, I think it could be wrapped up by February 7, the date of Michigan's contest. A decisive Dean win here will probably seal his victory, because the Midwest will factor importantly in the 2004 general election.
For Gephardt, good performances in Iowa and Michigan, a slam-dunk in Missouri, and staying competitive in flyover country will equate to a Dean vs. Gephardt battle that would be decided on March 2, when big BIG states California, New York, and Ohio decide their choices for nominee.
I think Clark can only stay alive if he wins very big in South Carolina and/or Oklahoma, or if he upsets Gephardt in Missouri.
A Clark endorsement by one or both of the Clintons would put him back in the hunt --- but the party would be splintered. Look for rumors (laughable at best) of the Hildabeast accepting the VP from Clark.
Remember gang, if Dean gets the nomination Clinton's Creatures or out at the DNC.
Gore wants to be Chairman of the DNC, Gore would like nothing better than to hand McAliff his walking papers.
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