Bush Leads All Democrats In Iowa; Gephardt Is The Closest Candidate

News5/KSDK.com ^ | 12-25-03

[veronica]

If registered Iowa voters are any indication, President Bush is in a solid postion to be re-elected. His closest democratic challenger right now is Missouri's Dick Gephardt.

Our exclusive Survey USA poll shows Mister Bush beating Gephardt 52 percent to 45 percent in Iowa.

As for other top democrats, Wesley Clark trails President Bush right now, 59 to 35 percent. Howard Dean versus Mister Bush results in 54 percent of registered Iowa voters supporting the president and 42 percent support for Dean.

Democrat John Kerry also loses by 12 percent right now in Iowa against the President. And former vice presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman trails Mister Bush by 14 points, 59% to 35%. The survey was done earlier this week.

[CWOJackson]

"Gephardt Is The Closest Candidate"

That has to terrify "thoughtful" democrats.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

I could have told you that!

Let's watch and enjoy the severe anguish from DU and the TIN FOIL Brigade as they are so justifiably proven wrong!

[glockmeister40]

If "eyebrows" gephardt loses Iowa, he's toast. Go Dean!

If Dean is the democratic candidate for president, I predict Bush will get 530+ electorial college votes.

[RatSlayer]

In 2000 the results for Iowa as listed at (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presge.htm#IA):

IOWA

Gore, Al D 638,517
48.54

Bush, George W. R 634,373
48.22

Nader, Ralph IG 29,374
2.23

Buchanan, Pat REF 5,731
0.44

Browne, Harry LBT-IA 3,209
0.24

Hagelin, John N 2,281
0.17

Scattered W 1,168
0.09

Phillips, Howard CON 613
0.05

Harris, James SWP 190
0.01

McReynolds, David SOC 107
0.01

Total State Votes:
1,315,563



If Bush flips a few of the states that went narrowly to Gore, he will win easily.

[Tall_Texan]

This is no big worry for the Dirtycrats. Surely Dung Heap Harkin and the boys can round up thousands of dead, illegal, homeless and imprisoned Democrats who were not polled by Survey USA.

[raptor29]

Yeah, but don't forget that Kerry is borrowing $6 million+ against his house to put towards his campaign. Things will really turn around for him once that money starts flowing....................Uhhh, right.

[SMGFan]

Three electoral votes from Washington, DC and three from Vermont for Dean?

[southernnorthcarolina]

The upper Mississippi Valley, including eastern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin, trended strongly Democratic in the 1970s and 80s, and became possibly the most liberal overwhelmingly white rural/small-town area in the nation. Here's what the 2000 race looked like (NOTE: on this map, from Dave Leip's U.S. Elections Atlas, red is Dem, and blue is GOP, the reverse of what is most often seen.) The darker the shade of red or blue, the greater the margin of the respective party.

Eastern (especially southeastern) Iowa, plus the Des Moines area in the center of the state, are the Dems' strongest areas, as the map shows. There are signs that these Dem areas are slowly trending back to the right; Dukakis carried Iowa by 10%+ in 1988, but it was almost a tossup in 2000. Perhaps the polls are picking up a continuation of the trend. Or perhaps the folks in Iowa are just really tired of all the Dems who've been hanging out in their state for months.

[CasearianDaoist]

Iowa was once a solid Rebuplican state, the ISU and UI crowd notwithstanding. I was shocked that Gore did so well. Let us hope that it returns to its politican roots.

[upchuck]

Mister Bush? That's almost an insult! How 'bout President Bush?

Hell, plain ole' Bush would be better than Mister Bush.

[CasearianDaoist]

Except that those counties that are red are the larger cities (Des Moines, Iowa City, Ceder Rapids, Davenport, etc.) and have a large flux of migrant workers and "minorities." These areas really do not reflect a s"mall town, mostly white" electorate at all. The big problem will be organized labor, the college towns, the NEA and the minority vote. I think that it is in play but it is really up for grabs. Iowa is really two states - it is the same Urban vs Country split that bedevil the rest of the nation. It seems a little stranger because the cities are generally smaller than much of the indutrialized Midwest and there in a much larger rural community relative to the cities then in other states.

One note: years ago they used to have a saying in Minnesota - "All the Rebulicans in up here were born in Iowa."

Iowa is still a quit pious state; perhaps this will help.

[Tennessean4Bush]

This is amazing given tht all they have heard for months over and over again are Democrat attack ads on Bush.

Wonder if Bush is planning on doing some of his own ads in Iowa in the coming weeks?

[LS]

This is one of the four states Bush lost by less than 30,000 total votes that I think are a "done deal" for 04, giving him 300 EV just to start.

[Prodigal Son]

Democrats? They're like the Greens or something aren't they?

[Cicero]

hillary's original plan was that Dean would win New Hampshire, Gephardt would win Iowa, and Edwards would win South Carolina. The idea was that there should be no front runner going into the convention, and the early thinking was that Ketchup Kerry was the most dangerous threat.

They will continue to knock Dean in the media, in hopes that Gephardt can still edge him out in Iowa.

[RatSlayer]

BTTT

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

In addition to winning Iowa, perhaps we could pick up Boswell's seat? He's the only Dem in the Iowa congressional delegation and his race ran competitive last year.

[Kay Soze]

Bush Leads All Democrats.

Yes he does.