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"Morrell has a shot at the runoff against two conservative Democrats."

A black state legislator entering the Louisiana Senate race is certainly good news for David Vitter's hopes of winning the December run-off. Let's see, 32.5% of Louisianans are black, and I estimate that blacks will comprise around 30% of the LA vote in November (it's usually less than that, but I would assume that a black Senate candidate running on a presidential election year would boost that number). Let us be conservative and assume that Morrell would get 55% of the statewide black vote (if anything, he should do better than that) and 5% of the non-black vote (he will probably do okay with white Democrats in the New Orleans area), which would give him 20% of the total vote. With two conservative Democrats running, I would guess that Vitter and any other Republican who jumps in will combine to get around 45%. That would leave 35% to be split between Chris John and John Kennedy. It would be difficult for either John or Kennedy to hold the other below 15% and thus be able to get over 20%, so I would rate Morrell's chances of making the run-off as very good. And in a December run-off, Vitter would beat Morrell by at least 60% to 40%, since conservative white Democrats are not going to vote for Morrell in great numbers. So Morrell's entrance into the Senate race is excellent news for our chances of finally winning a Senate race in Louisiana. However, I would expect on John Kennedy getting a lot of pressure to drop out so as to give a better chance to Chris John, who is John Breaux's appointed successor. And Morrell's ability to get out the black vote in November could very well help Democrats running in House races in the competitive 3rd, 5th and 7th congressional districts, and would certainly help John Kerry's candidacy in the state (although I don't think it would be enough to make the state competitive in the presidential race). But all in all, this is excellent news.