The truth is California would be a solid Republican state if it wasn't for the SF Bay Area, which is very liberal, very activist, and turns out in extremely high percentages.
It really comes down to whether or not Republicans make an effort here and turn out the vote. It's an uphill battle here because the dominant media creates an atmosphere of persecution for anyone who isn't of the cosmopolitan liberal mindset.
The liberals here can't turn out their vote any more than it already is. In the recall, Orange County turned out as heavily as San Francisco. This is what will make the difference.
You may notice, Orange County turned out with 64% in the recall, actually beating San Francisco, the tiny little county showing 63% turn out. If OC and San Diego turn out in the same numbers or better this election, then Bush will win California.