Posted on 08/31/2004 7:08:53 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
ELECTION SIMULATION UPDATED
Last simulation with pre-RNC data. Kerry win probability is 63.7%, average electoral votes, 279-259. These numbers are slightly closer than the Composite Analysis of 281-257, indicating that more electoral votes in Kerry's column are toss-ups than in Bush's column (see, e.g. Florida).
| Federal Review Election Simulation | |||||||||||
| 20,000 trials | |||||||||||
| August 31, 2004 | |||||||||||
| Probable Election Winner: | John F. Kerry | John F. Kerry | |||||||||
| George W. Bush | |||||||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Tie | |||||||||
| Probability of Winning | 35.0% | 63.7% | 1.3% | ||||||||
| Average Electoral Votes | 259 | 279 | 95% Confidence | Lo | Hi | ||||||
| Maximum Electoral Votes | 358 | 373 | Kerry Range | 227 | 330 | ||||||
| Minimum Electoral Votes | 165 | 180 | Bush Range | 208 | 311 | ||||||
| Fed Rev Analysis | 257 | 281 | |||||||||
| FR Composite Popular Vote | 48.8% | 48.5% | |||||||||
| FR Composite Based on State Predictions (share of 2 party vote) | 49.8% | 50.2% | |||||||||
| State | Fed Rev Analysis (Margin) | Margin of Error (Both Candidates) | Probability Bush | Prob Kerry | Prob Bush | Electoral Votes | Bush | Kerry | Weighted Bush EV | Trend from last sim* | |
| Alabama | 16.7% | 6.2% | 100.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | ||
| Alaska | 27.2% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Arizona | 5.8% | 8.3% | 75.7% | 24.3% | 75.7% | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | Bush | |
| Arkansas | 3.2% | 4.9% | 74.4% | 25.6% | 74.4% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | Bush | |
| California | -9.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 85.4% | 14.6% | 55 | 0 | 55 | 8 | ||
| Colorado | 1.6% | 7.1% | 59.2% | 40.8% | 59.2% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | ||
| Connecticut | -9.8% | 11.4% | 19.5% | 80.5% | 19.5% | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Delaware | -13.5% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 95.4% | 4.6% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ||
| District of Columbia | -77.9% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ||
| Florida | -0.7% | 6.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 27 | 0 | 27 | 12 | ||
| Georgia | 12.2% | 3.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 | ||
| Hawaii | -11.3% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 92.0% | 8.0% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Idaho | 36.7% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | ||
| Illinois | -14.2% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 96.4% | 3.6% | 21 | 0 | 21 | 1 | ||
| Indiana | 13.3% | 7.8% | 100.0% | 4.5% | 95.5% | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 | ||
| Iowa | -2.3% | 4.8% | 31.2% | 68.8% | 31.2% | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | ||
| Kansas | 20.4% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.5% | 99.5% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | ||
| Kentucky | 12.6% | 6.2% | 100.0% | 2.1% | 97.9% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | ||
| Louisiana | 11.3% | 11.1% | 84.6% | 15.4% | 84.6% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | ||
| Maine | -5.0% | 14.1% | 36.3% | 63.7% | 36.3% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ||
| Maryland | -12.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ||
| Massachusetts | -27.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ||
| Michigan | -4.7% | 6.6% | 24.1% | 75.9% | 24.1% | 17 | 0 | 17 | 4 | ||
| Minnesota | -3.6% | 5.3% | 25.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 10 | 0 | 10 | 3 | ||
| Mississippi | 17.2% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 1.6% | 98.4% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | ||
| Missouri | 2.6% | 7.8% | 62.9% | 37.1% | 62.9% | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 | Kerry | |
| Montana | 24.3% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Nebraska | 28.6% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | ||
| Nevada | 1.9% | 3.5% | 70.1% | 29.9% | 70.1% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | Bush | |
| New Hampshire | -3.4% | 5.8% | 28.0% | 72.0% | 28.0% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | ||
| New Jersey | -8.9% | 10.2% | 19.3% | 80.7% | 19.3% | 15 | 0 | 15 | 3 | ||
| New Mexico | -4.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 85.4% | 14.6% | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ||
| New York | -20.1% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 99.7% | 0.3% | 31 | 0 | 31 | 0 | ||
| North Carolina | 7.1% | 6.8% | 100.0% | 14.6% | 85.4% | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 | Bush | |
| North Dakota | 27.8% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Ohio | 0.3% | 7.2% | 51.7% | 48.3% | 51.7% | 20 | 20 | 0 | 10 | ||
| Oklahoma | 22.3% | 8.7% | 100.0% | 0.5% | 99.5% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | ||
| Oregon | -5.3% | 8.2% | 26.0% | 74.0% | 26.0% | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | ||
| Pennsylvania | -3.6% | 7.3% | 31.3% | 68.7% | 31.3% | 21 | 0 | 21 | 7 | ||
| Rhode Island | -29.2% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ||
| South Carolina | 10.7% | 7.6% | 100.0% | 7.8% | 92.2% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | ||
| South Dakota | 23.6% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Tennessee | 3.8% | 9.9% | 64.8% | 35.2% | 64.8% | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 | ||
| Texas | 19.9% | 3.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 34 | 34 | 0 | 34 | ||
| Utah | 40.2% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | ||
| Vermont | -11.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 92.6% | 7.4% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ||
| Virginia | 4.5% | 2.3% | 100.0% | 2.4% | 97.6% | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 | ||
| Washington | -6.8% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 87.1% | 12.9% | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | ||
| West Virginia | 0.4% | 9.7% | 51.8% | 48.2% | 51.8% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | Bush | |
| Wisconsin | 0.6% | 9.6% | 52.4% | 47.6% | 52.4% | 10 | 10 | 0 | 5 | Bush | |
| Wyoming | 40.6% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| * Change by more than 5% in favor of named candidate since last simulation | |||||||||||
| Return to Federal Review | |||||||||||
| <![endif]> | |||||||||||
bump for later reading
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According to this, Kerry has a 68.7% chance of winning Pennsylvania. I thought this was a 'battleground' state? 68% is a shoe-in for anybody.
I wish I could find a way to project the future. But this is based on polls as of today and the volatility of polling in the applicable state over the last few months. Thus, if the race is close, as in Virginia, but the polls have hardly moved, then a higher probability for Bush to win because no polls have shown Kerry winning and the electorate has been stable.
Trust me. PA will be closer next week.
You might be interested.
Guess someone should tell the Kerry campaign. They are utterly imploding. That tells me that as bad as this looks, their internals look worse.
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