Odds on the 2008 GOP nominee

bestbetting.com ^ | Paddy Power

[JLS]

I agree we need to win 2004, first, but I happened to find these odds today.

This is not a list someone compiled, this is a list of odds YOU CAN BET ON. So if someone want to take a long shot and put $100 down that the constistution will be ammended and Arnold will win the nomination, that is perfectly within their rights.

My own view of this list is this:

1. First remove all the people who have not won statewide office except Rudy because NYC is as big as a medium sized state. That eliminates L.Bush and Cheney plus Rice who is not on the list and Powell for that matter.

2. Second remove people who are too old or have health concerns or are not eligible. That eliminates McCain, Chenney, Arnold and maybe some others on that list. [Remember the age that matters is the persons age in 2008.]

3. Third remove people from small states. Winning the Senate election in Kansas does not prepare you for a presidential race. That eliminates Hagel, Brownback and others.

4. Fourth eliminate US Senators if the GOP wants to win in 2008. Senator rarely win the presidency. That eliminates Frist, Graham, Brownback etc.

That pares the list way down and maybe it is between Ruby, Pataki, Romney and Jeb? Of course some other names will arise.

[Terpfen]

A lot can happen, true. But it's possible to keep yourself viable between political offices. Reagan did so after losing in 1976.

[TitansAFC]

As much as McCain bugs many of us, he's probably the most conservative of the likely candidates (Guiliani, Pataki, Romney, etc.). Jeb Bush could be president someday, but if he ran in 2008 he's lose pretty soundly. It wound ring too much to the public as a dynasty.

I heard Bill Owens say he wouldn't run, essentially, on Bill Maher's show. He'd make a good candidate, but he says he won't run and I don't think he's a liar. Bill Frist is a nice guy, but has been a poor leader; he's been monumentally ineffective as a leader in the Senate, and is vehemently opposed to taking risks.

There aren't a lot of surprise Governors out there to choose from after Owens and Romney. We probably won't get any more scenarios like 2000 - GWB out of nowhere.

I guess I'd have to say McCain is still the front-runner for 2008. Frankly, between he and Guiliani, I'd actually have to take McCain. Guiliani is beyond liberal on key social issues; I can't imagine him winning a single southern or midwestern primary.

The good news is, with McCain at the top of the ticket, the office can be retained. The bad news is he'll be a bit of a leftwards shift on some issues. But he's still better than anything the dems would put forward.

[tkathy]

What has Rice ever done in politics? Other than being intelligent and attractive? She would have to win a big senate seat at the very least.

[sharktrager]

McCain will be over 70. Not gonna happen.

[Reagan79]

Rick Santorum or Goerge Allen would be great. No way on Arnold it would take amending the constitution, and no way on Jeb. Americans will not got for a dynasty.

[sharktrager]

Keyes, while he has integrity, would be a disaster for the party.

[MNJohnnie]

And just what makes you claim that "Mccain is the most Conservative"?

McCain-Finegold Incumbent Protection act is NOT "Conservative" but Big Government Liberalism at it's worse. McCain POSTURES as a "Conservative" but his VOTING record and legislative record indicate clearly he is FAR from being a "Conservative". But it is all academic, McCain, and Hagel also, have poisoned the well far too much with their posturing for the News Media to ever get the Republican Nomination. Those who routinely violate Ronald Regan's 11th Commendment, as McCain and Hagel do, are NOT going to ever be able to rebuild the bridges they are burning with the Republican base. You got to get nominated before you can run and neither McCain nor Hagel can get nominated in the GOP after their traitorous anti-Bush posturing.

[churchillbuff]

Limbaugh's separated from his third wife and currently dating. I haven't heard of his ratings plummeting in light of that."""

I think Rush's private life would be a handicap if he tried to run for office. Being divorced once is one thing, but getting divorced twice raises questions in a lot of people's minds about one's character and fitness to lead. -

[sharktrager]

Turning on the radio is not the same as voting.

[kms61]

Judging from the comments of many on FR, Giuliani wouldn't make it through the Republican primaries because of his stand on abortion and gays. A shame, because he'd be a slam dunk to win the general election.

[bad company]

Kit Bond '08

[Mark in the Old South]

Re: "But it's possible to keep yourself viable between political offices. Reagan did so after losing in 1976"

Who do you mean? Rudy? Heavens to murgertroid, Rudy is no RR. I agree the 2008 nominee may not be an office holder today. It may be Rudy in 2008 but that will kill the GOP and it will not recover. The Pro-life crowd (and that is a very large % of the population) are working within the system ONLY because they think the debate can be won at the polls. If the GOP puts a pro-death politician on the ticket they will turn to a third party or worse. You can scream till you are purple it will get Hillary Rodham elected, and you would be right but it will still be President Elect Rodham November 2008.

There is no point in telling pro-lifers to be practical when the GOP just spent months being very impractical in nominating Rudy G.

[kms61]

Santorum is a bit of a loudmouth and doesn't come across as very likeable IMHO.

[dufekin]

Let me first state that Senators do NOT get elected President. Really, they don't. After eight years of one Administration, the historical trend is to go with a senior Administration official or, occasionally, a governor.

Bill First - no; too Senatorial
John McCain - no; entrenched Senator
Rudolph Guiliani - maybe; not near the top of the list
George Pataki - no; far too liberal
Chuck Hagel - no; liberal Senator
Mitt Romney - good choice, but can he carry Massachusetts?
Bill Owens - perhaps a good choice
Tom Ridge - nice selection--if he increases his profile
George Allen - former governor; long shot
Norm Coleman - not a chance; I agree; too senatorial
Lindsey Graham - nope; Senator
Sam Brownback - nope; might entice conservatives, but Senator
Arnold Schwarzenegger - no; ineligible
Dick Cheney - absolutely; possible re-elect in 2008
Jeb Bush - don't think so; good candidate but nepotism?
Laura Bush - never--I doubt she'd do it, and it's just not gonna happen


Let's talk about some real choices:

Colin Powell - wife objects, somewhat liberal, but competent
Donald Rumsfeld - America's first octogenarian president?
Condoleeza Rice - she's single and seriously, an option
Tommy Franks - would he do it? maybe
terror war general (yet unnamed) - distinct possibility

A yet-unappointed member of the war cabinet (perhaps now an assistant secretary) is a real possibility as well. Let's just hold on the speculation for another year at least.

[Conservative Infidel]

On paper it looks good. However, Condi is just a policy adviser and academic. She has no management experience.

Does anyone know what JC Watts has been up to? Perhaps something like JC Watts/Michelle Malkin?

[Jacvin]

Who sets these odds?

Giuliani cannot win a national Republican Primary.

He is pro-abortion, pro gay marriage and he has had all sorts of personal indiscretions in his background.
He has had cancer and his health could also be a problem.

On many issues he is more a Democrat then he is a Republican.

Giuliani is experiencing the “Powell syndrome” right now, everyone thinks he would make a great President, but no one really knows where he stands on anything but one or two issues.

Besides the only way a Catholic could run for national office in this day and age would be to essentially renounce Catholicism the way Kerry has.

The same Catholic issues being used against Kerry now can be used the same way against Giuliani, only it would be even worse with Giuliani because he’s supposedly a “Republican”.

Giuliani’s heroism on 9/11 notwithstanding, a Northeastern liberal Republican could not carry the Republican South or West in a primary.

Let Giuliani get in the ring in a National Republican primary and he would get clobbered.

No one is going to change the constitution for Arnold and even if they did he has the same “issue” problems that Giuliani has.

Bill Frist might run and might have a chance, but he seems deficient in the charisma category to me.

John McCain is despised by Republican party activists. This is not the year 2000 any longer and John has been disloyal to the party and his obsession with unconstitutional
“campaign finance reform” will never be forgotten or forgiven by the Republican party faithful.

I don’t think Pataki or Tom Ridge have the political skills or charisma to become President or to win a national Republican primary. Although Pataki has been underestimated before and won so he has to be considered a factor.

George Allen seems like he would have a real chance. He has charisma, he’s a Governor from a Southern State, is right on the issues and he’s a big good looking guy.

If Jeb’s last name were not Bush he would be a shoo in for the nomination, but I have problems envisioning another Bush getting the nomination for President. It would be too much like a “royal family” for most Americans.

No one in America knows who the other guys are so they almost can’t be considered in the mix.

Condi is not a politician and won't run for anything.
Once again no one knows much about her positions and she has never run for office.Being the NSA does not in and of itself qualify you to be President.

It’s way too soon to tell but I would bet on George Allen right now with Bill Frist a close second.

Or you could always bet over and under.

[curmudgeonII]

Why do so many people on FR have a major problem with posting numbers in tabular form?

[motife]

I'm for Rudy.

[Bluegrass Conservative]

I agree, I think Mitt Romney may have the best chance. As much as I love Rudy, Mitt is more solid on traditional Republican values. Where I'm unsure if Rudy could win southern primaries because of his moderate views, Mitt Romney shouldn't have a problem. The added bonus is that Romney has proven that, even with his conservative principles, he can win in a liberal state.

I would like to see Romney paired up with a southerner. Frist would be a great V.P. But, there are a few longshots as well . . . J.C. Watts? Mitch McConnell? Fred Thompson?