Posted on 10/03/2004 10:35:20 AM PDT by crushelits
That's the Way the Cocoon Crumbles!
Can we panic now?
By Mickey Kaus
Updated Saturday, Sept. 4, 2004, at 2:12 PM PT
OK, We'll Panic Later! crushkerry.com--blogging against interest--warns against putting too much faith in that Newsweek poll showing an 11 point Bush lead. Scott Rasmussen says the same about the similar Time poll. .. .Both polls oversampled Republican voters, the argument goes--which would mean that the actual Bush lead is much smaller than 11 percent. ... Update: Minuteman piles on--and he offers the obvious explanation: "proper Reps were at home watching their convention and answering the phone when pollsters called, while proper Dems were off doing" whatever Dems do during the GOP convention. [If that's right, shouldn't the Newsweek poll have shown a big Kerry edge during the Dem convention?--ed It did!]... 2:14 A.M.
Doesn't Bush's seemingly substantial post-convention bounce give the lie to the theory--which has infected Bush's own campaign --that there are no swing voters left (so the best bet is to turn out your "base" voters)? Obviously there are plenty of swing voters because Bush just swung 'em! ... 5:03 P.M.
Friday, September 3, 2004
Can we panic now? 52-41. [Thanks to Dr. M] .. Update: All you cocoon-enforcers who've been emailing me about how the 52-41 Time poll is an outlier can stop now. Newsweek has replicated the finding. Time and Newsweek can't both be wrong, can they? Don't answer that. Update: Actually, the answer is they might both be wrong. ... More: An appropriately panicked Susan Estrich suggests some lines of negative Dem counterattack. They don't seem out of bounds to me. They do seem ineffective. Bush isn't running on his Vietnam service record. ... But Estrich does bury some juicy charges about Lee Atwater's role in planting nasty negative stories about Dukakis in 1988. ... 3:43 P.M.
Bush speech:
1) Another State of the Union laundry list, at least in the first half. We'll just all have to reconcile ourselves to the unfortunate popularity of SOTU-style speeches. Voters must like them for some reason, the way TV viewers like stories about the weather.
2) Good theft of Clintonesque lifelong learning theme;
3) Good theft of Shrumian populist cliche ("And government must take your side");
4) Emphasis on portable everything (health, pension, training) alarmingly coherent; almost makes it seem as if Bush has a second-term domestic agenda!
5) He only says he'll "keep the promise of Social Security for our older workers." [Emph. added.] Younger workers are on notice;
6) Question: Will the increase in training money come in the form of vouchers? That would fit with the portability and ownership themes but runs afoul of the powerful job training/community college lobby. Bush does not seem to be rocking that boat--he doesn't mention vouchers.
7) The speech seems self-confident, yet there are remarkably few sharp edges that might bother moderate voters (e.g. no stem cells, no U.N.-bashing);
8) Between the "we saw a threat" rationale for invading Iraq and the messianic democracy-spreading rationale, this wasn't a good day for the traditional concept of sovereignty;
9) Bush has sacrificed any " "return to normalcy" appeal. It's "transformational" history-making from here on out for him.
Overall, the speech was highly effective if not memorable. The one possible upside for Democrats: If Bush now pulls ahead in the polls Dems may substitute a clear-eyed panic for their previous media-fed belief that this is necessarily a close race--abandoning as well all the bogus comforting spin ("Wbrong track" internals will save us! Hispanics will save us! 527s will save us! Cheney's unpopularity will save us! Joe Lockhart will save us! etc.).
That's the way the cocoon crumbles. Better now than on Election Day. 4:27 A.M.
NO TO KERRY AND HIS UNITED NATIONS FRIENDS"
YES TO PRESIDENT BUSH - A TRUE AMERICAN FOR AMERICA!
Newsweak is manufactured news.........
Poll Date... Repub....Dems....Indy....Men....Women
9/11/04........391........300......270......481....522
10/2/04........345........364......278......481....532
On 9/11/04 Newsweek Bush up 49-43.
On 10/2/04 Newsweek Kerry up 47-45.
Roughly........
20% MORE democrats sampled in the post debate poll and
12% LESS republicans sampled.
Wow! That will change the numbers wont it?
Here is the REAL story. Nothing changed post debate.
Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports
Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of
the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.
These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted
Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result,
just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following
Thursday night's Presidential Debate.
Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a
one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate
interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.
The debates did little to change voter perceptions of the candidates'
political ideology. However, following the debate, there was an
increase in the number who say finishing the mission in Iraq is more
important than getting troops home as soon as possible.
Six percent (6%)% of voters say they changed their minds following the
debate. This includes 3% who are now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush,
and 1% who are now undecided.
Bush is really up 3-5 points if you go by the state to state polls and the turnout experienced in 2000.
Nothing has changed on that front in the past two weeks, nor is it likely to.
Kerry is definitely losing in Wisconsin and Iowa, possibly losing in Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Bush is not losing a single state from last time around.
That's all that you need to know. Ignore the national polls.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.