Posted on 11/01/2004 8:46:17 AM PST by NotchJohnson
Sorry, I just don't. It's too close, and the entire thing is going to turn on voter turnout. As I've said, Democrats are a lot better at the turnout game than are Republicans. It's no mystery why. People more likely to vote Democrat are less likely to have a sense of independence and individuality. They're followers, and as followers they're easily herded.
Bush's best chance is rain ... bad weather in the battleground states. Bad weather will suppress the Democratic vote. And just why is that? Think about it. The Democratic party is the party of dependency; dependency on government. If these people can't be expected to actually get an education, develop a job skill and find a job somewhere, and then manage to generate some degree of economic independence ... why would you expect them to get out there in bad weather to vote? These people don't like hardship, and they don't like putting forth one more bit of effort than they have to in order to survive. If it rains many of them will stay indoors and let someone else take care of things for them. After all, that's been their lifestyle for years, why change now?
I can not say with any confidence that Bush will win.
Bad weather rarely affects and election - its just a myth.
I think Bush winds Florida, loses Ohio. Does not pick up enough Gore states to make up for Ohio loss. Unfortunetly.
Neal has been doing this for a long time. I believe his theory is that this will goad pro-Bush people into voting, but I think his constant negativity is not a good thing.
Not a myth KC. Inner city voters generally walk to the polls. If it's raining and you aren't that enthusiastic about the candidate you are less likely to walk 3 blocks to go vote.
Rain does not have an effect in the burbs and rural areas as most people drive to the polls.
I like Neal's perspective on many things, but he's no fortune teller. Opinions are like A-holes, everyone has one, and it's only HIS opinion.
Boortz is an optimist.
I have a lot of trouble with all the negativity talk. The battleground polling is positive news, and the national polling is looking better as we get past the weekend. We are so close, and it won't take much to have a comfortable electoral college win. The only thing that depresses me is that so many Americans cannot see through Kerry and refuse to back a man who is driven by principles, not polls. Nevertheless, the goal line is in sight. Don't take your eyes off of it.
So . . . no whining. Vote, and take someone with you!
Neal is just slamming the Dems here. The points he makes aren't accurate.
As someone else posted, the whole weather thing is a myth. Also, the Republicans are now better in the GOTV game than the Dems. We learned our lesson in 2000 and had improved dramatically by 2002 with great results. Now in 2004, the Republican GOTV campaign is a massive fine tuned machine.
For months now I have been predicting a Bush "landslide of Reaganesque proportions," but lately I am not so sure.
I am afraid that Democrat vote fraud (and it will be rampant), dead Democrat voters, and the first-time voter, mindless, windup, automoton droids who have been programmed by the Left to pull the lever by the "D" may just steal this election.
I have prayed for a Bush victory. And I am certain that if Kerry wins, the days of our Republic are numbered. All future elections will be rife with Dem fraud and intimidation and lawsuits.
If Kerry wins, the Dems will have succeeded in turning our great nation into a banana republic.
Keep in mind that Neal has written extensively that he believes a sizeable portion of the population is too stupid to vote. If that's your view (and it's not that much of a stretch), the Kerry win seems inevitable.
For the record, I think Neal's wrong on this. Bush 53-47.
Boortz has been calling it for Kerry for months... and frankly the mans makes about as good radio as hillary makes chocolate chip cookies.... Frankly, I think Boortz is a self absorbed idiot.
I am so glad he'll be off the radio here in Pittsburgh soon... his show is definately the worst syndicated one in town... and will be going the way of the dodo in this market soon.
"Bad weather rarely affects and election - its just a myth."
Hard to prove either way. One thing to keep in mind - almost 70% of those who support Bush do so enthusiastically. Only about 30% of Kerry supporters do so enthusiastically. Bad weather is less likely to dampen Bush's support. Other down ballot races or lack of have an impact as well. The gay marriage ammendment in Ohio should turn out the Bush supporters - high water better than hell as it were.
80% chance of copious amounts of rain all over Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan tomorrow. Minnesota and Wisconsin sunny.
Dear God, let me get off of this thread before all the mass suicides begin.
I'm with you. Quit listening to him a long time ago.
From what I've been reading today it does seem to be trending towards Kerry to some degree. The major concern I have is to what extent the 'Rat bogus voter registrations will have and to what extent younger (first time voters) will turn out ... as an easy majority in this group will vote Kerry/Edwards. At this point Bush doesn't have the solid lead he needs to negate this factor ... thus my pessimism.
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