Posted on 06/06/2005 6:12:40 AM PDT by BroncosFan
Quinnipiac:
DEAD HEAT
The race for the GOP nomination for New Jersey Governor is too close to call, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning showing Doug Forrester at 35% and Bret Schundler at 33%. Four days ago, a Quinnipiac poll had Forrester ahead by eleven points, 40%-29%.
The second horserace is for third place, with John Murphy, Paul DiGaetano and Steve Lonegan all within 2% of each other.
Three out of ten voters (31%) say they could still change their minds, while 69% say their decision is final.
“No candidate in this race has generated great excitement among Republican voters. It now comes down to which contender does the best job of getting his voter's to the polls," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Doug Forrester clings to the narrowest of leads, but his multi-million dollar advertising blitz has failed to establish the strong lead he hoped for. Bret Schundler, meanwhile, hasn't been able to rise above the 33 percent mark in any of the polls during the primary season."
From May 29 – June 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 329 New Jersey likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners
Doug Forrester 35%
Bret Schundler 33%
John Murphy 7%
Paul DiGaetano 6%
Steve Lonegan 5%
Bob Schroeder 1%
Todd Caliguire 1%
There is still hope! Come on people, look at this poll. This makes the best case for why New Jersey Republicans should vote for Schundler yet! All we need is a good 2-3%, and maybe not even that much given that the Schundler supporters are more sure of their vote than the Forrester ones.
I know you Lonegan types are going to blast me for this, but come on, be practical.
This is surprising. For some reason, I though Lonegan was doing a lot better than 5%.
Go Bret Go! NJ - get out the vote tomorrow.
Amazing, I haven't paid much attention, but I thought (a few days ago) that Bret was down 11%?? He's closed I gap, it seems. I like Bret and hope he wins.
If you read the posts by a certain freeper, you'd think Lonegan had 60% of likey primary voters. He's totally fringe and it looks like the solid right-wing voters (of whom I am one) are "coming home" to Bret after flirting with the purist no-hoper Lonegan (who is only running because he & his consultant had a falling out with Bret over Assembly primaries a few years back).
It's the age-old argument, which will redound on FR forever, between voting for the better candidate who can possibly win or voting for the best possible candidate.
As far as I can see, it is a matter of personal preference that is immune to argument and logic. Those who want to go down in flames but remain pure will do so, no matter what anybody says.
I will support the best candidate, but when it comes down to nut-crackin' time, I will take my choice of the top two. In this particular instance, it is no contest.
Forrester is a useless vanity candidate who will be a train wreck in the fall. Schundler can at least run a substantive campaign and move the ball forward. I think he even has a reasonable shot at Corzine.
At the very least, maybe losing out in the primary will help Forrester get the message that he will never win statewide and he can spend his money on a vacation paradise in the Bahamas, or fast cars, or something else that will make him happy, and he can leave the NJ Republican Party alone.
Schundler or Forrester. Hold you nose and take your pick.
My pick is Schundler.
When is the Primary?
Tomorrow.
Maybe I can take the mute off my phone ringer on Wednesday...
Then I heard that Murphy had called for Tom DeLay to resign --for his 'ethical' problems that had become 'too much of a distraction.'
That immediately put an end to any thought of voting for Murphy!
Well, if the RINO represents no improvement, it might make sense to "send a message"...
BTW, no sweat on the phone thing. I like yelling at people on the phone.
About the phone thing. I'm at Hq almost daily, but NOT for the phones. There's other stuff to be done, of course, and they know my diskike for phoning. BUT -- today and tomorrow, I HAVE to man them. I dread it! But, if you get me --- please be nice and kind and gentle and understanding------puulllleeezzzzeeee.
Go Bret Go!
I have a feeling that Schundler might have a surprise victory. There's a lot of casual voters who have seen Forrester's ads on television. But, in a low turnout election, there are still a lot of true conservatives who would walk across broken glass to vote, and these people are mainly Schundler voters.
A new Quinnipiac poll released early this morning shows the Republican primary for Governor in a dead heat: Doug Forrester leads Bret Schundler by just two percentage points -- 35%-33% -- in a poll that has a margin of error of +/- 5.4%. Four days ago, the same poll had Forrester up by eleven points, 40%-29%, a shift that is within the margin of error. The key to the race may be the performance of the other five candidates -- all still in single-digits and showing no signs of being poised for an upset. The second-tier candidates are polling a combined 22% of the vote, and the poll suggests that nearly two out of every three votes cast for those candidates come from Forrester's column. According to Quinnipiac, Forrester would receive 14% more votes in a two man race, while Schundler's number rises to 6%. That directly links the performance of organization lines in Bergen and Passaic for Paul DiGaetano and Ocean for Bob Schroeder (and John Murphy's showing in his home county, Morris, where there is no line) -- and how many conservative Republicans wind up picking Steve Lonegan -- to the final outcome of this campaign.
He'll win in a walk.
Besides that, given the performance of our pathetic Senate this year, I'd highly doubt NJ would vote for a GOP Senator- hell, we're going to have problems with seats in 2006 that we shouldn't even have problems with.
Governor is our best shot, especially given how corrupt the McGreevey administration was- and with this property tax crisis.
The problem is that Corzine -- unlike virtually every other politician in NJ -- is not in the McGreevey orbit. Remember that Corzine bought his seat in defiance of the machine.
The open Senate seat will be Tom Kean, Jr. (Son of RINO) vs. Bob Menendez, if scandals don't emerge (and, trust me, there are skeletons in that hombre's closet). Maybe in 2008, if Chris Christie (a) rune; and (b) turns out to be a political conservative . . . but, come 2006, the choice will be between a corrupt liberal and an airhead Linc Chafee clone. Not great options.
Corzine is still part of the NJ Democrat Party, and such tapes could easily be used against him- particularly if he's running against someone who is the antithesis of a rich businessman, like Schundler (this is why Forrester wouldn't work).
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