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China's Coming People Power(coming fall of Chinese communist regime)
Washington Post ^
| 10/11/05
| Arthur Waldron
Posted on 10/15/2005 7:37:03 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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Chinese people will rise up demanding more accountability from rulers. However, Chinese transition to more representative government would be one hell of a bumpy ride.
If some foreigners believe that China can have nice smooth transition to more transparent and representative government, and their Chinese business operations weather this period without much complication, they are dreaming.
To: TigerLikesRooster; maui_hawaii; tallhappy; Dr. Marten; Jeff Head; Khurkris; hedgetrimmer; ...
To: TigerLikesRooster
....If some foreigners believe that China can have nice smooth transition to more transparent and representative government, and their Chinese business operations weather this period without much complication, they are dreaming.....
The extremes are an angry bloody revolution and a kumbaya love fest. Neither will happen. The communists will be gradually made meaningless as the transformation takes place. The people will exert pressure but will not make big waves.
There can be great argument and disagreement about the size and number of the bumps in the road but there can be no argument about the journey. It is underway. it will take a long time.
3
posted on
10/15/2005 7:45:12 AM PDT
by
bert
(K.E. ; N.P . Chicken spit causes flu....... Fox News)
To: TigerLikesRooster
Well, there is a lot of dreaming going on. Our government and corporate policies are a clear indication of that.
To: bert
"It is underway. it will take a long time." Perhaps. Perhaps not. Contrary to the Western image of China as a monolithic, homogeneous behemoth there are many critical cultural, ethnic, geographic social and economic subsets within the PRC construct that will come unglued rapidly at any opportunity. Remember the USSR - It was viewed the same way and, when the opportunity for it's similarly composed amalgamation to break free presented itself the end was fairly rapid.
5
posted on
10/15/2005 7:53:44 AM PDT
by
drt1
To: TigerLikesRooster
Seems pretty optimistic to me. The primary thrust of the unrest in China is that the peasants don't like the capitalistic changes that are being implemented by Beijing.
6
posted on
10/15/2005 7:54:48 AM PDT
by
Brilliant
To: genefromjersey
Seems to be a busy day for Chinese news.
7
posted on
10/15/2005 7:55:53 AM PDT
by
Calpernia
(Breederville.com)
To: KylaStarr; Cindy; StillProud2BeFree; nw_arizona_granny; Velveeta; Dolphy; appalachian_dweller; ...
8
posted on
10/15/2005 7:56:22 AM PDT
by
Calpernia
(Breederville.com)
9
posted on
10/15/2005 7:57:18 AM PDT
by
Calpernia
(Breederville.com)
To: Brilliant
Re #6
Yes, as you pointed out, there is a possibility that peasants may perceive the whole industrialization as a bad idea. At least there could be sizable minority who see things that way.
Waldron is giving the second best scenario, next to Chinese leaders acting like Singapore leadership, which is the best case scenario, but has no chance of happening.
To: drt1
.....Perhaps not.....
You are correct of course.
Gazing at the smokey whirl in the crystal ball with binoculars leaves much to be desired. My less than perfect view indicates there is an effort to allow the old communists to just fade away as the educated and entrepreneurial Chinese take hold. Along with the millions of overseas Chinese in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Taiwan, Vancouver and San Francisco, the younger residents will make the transformation with no bloodshed.
The task is positively enormous and the outcome is uncertain but..... the transition is very well underway.
11
posted on
10/15/2005 8:20:30 AM PDT
by
bert
(K.E. ; N.P . Chicken spit causes flu....... Fox News)
To: TigerLikesRooster
Singapore is an authoritarian Confucian state dressed up as a democracy. China's leaders would like to return to Confucian norms if they need to ditch Communism. The question is whether that will be enough to forestall demands for democracy from the masses.
(Denny Crane: "I like nature. Don't talk to me about the environment".)
12
posted on
10/15/2005 8:22:45 AM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: bert
The Chinese are positively entrepreneurial. They're bright, hard-working and patriotic. They want a strong, modern and proud China. For now, Chinese have put aside democracy in favor of becoming rich. For the Communist Party, capitalism is now seen as a means of legitimizing Leninist rule. Mao must be spinning in his grave.
(Denny Crane: "I like nature. Don't talk to me about the environment".)
13
posted on
10/15/2005 8:26:16 AM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: TigerLikesRooster
Foreign investors in China may well find, to their dismay, that the first act of a democratic government is to seize their investments, perhaps on the ground that they were helping the present regime.
To: TigerLikesRooster
Thanks for posting Art and pinging me. I always like reading is stuff (I haven't read it yet, just saying thanks).
Based on the title, though, I don't know. Communists are butchers and we support them too much.
We have been what has propped them up politically since Kissinger was SoS and we have not changed policy at all.
15
posted on
10/15/2005 9:04:03 AM PDT
by
tallhappy
(Juntos Podemos!)
To: goldstategop
Re #12
What I try to convey was that, if Chinese communist regime is as efficient and free of corruption as Singapore leadership, they could put up with authoritarianism for quite a while. However, as it stands, the regime is corrupt to the core and quite inefficient. So it cannot entertain any chance of staying around.
To: bert
The extremes are an angry bloody revolution and a kumbaya love fest The communists are all ready incredibly bloody, now today, in 2005 as they have been through their entire regime.
They will shed a lot more blood before it happens.
Obviously you instinctively know this and present the idea that they will peacefully retain power ("The communists will be gradually made meaningless as the transformation takes place.") and rule forever.
Your scenario is the commie Kumbaya one.
Strange that you would make fun of the Kumbaya one.
17
posted on
10/15/2005 9:07:59 AM PDT
by
tallhappy
(Juntos Podemos!)
To: bert
There can be great argument and disagreement about the size and number of the bumps in the road but there can be no argument about the journey. It is underway. it will take a long time. This is utter pabulum.
18
posted on
10/15/2005 9:08:56 AM PDT
by
tallhappy
(Juntos Podemos!)
To: Brilliant
The primary thrust of the unrest in China is that the peasants don't like the capitalistic changes that are being implemented by Beijing. That's nonsense.
19
posted on
10/15/2005 9:09:40 AM PDT
by
tallhappy
(Juntos Podemos!)
To: bert
Kumbaya. Ice cream and puppies.
20
posted on
10/15/2005 9:12:46 AM PDT
by
tallhappy
(Juntos Podemos!)
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