I suspect there is a strong possibility most if not all of the initiatives will succeed.
California polls can't be trusted. Just ask Governor Bustamante.
There are no politicians on the ballot, and its an off-off-year election. Few Californians really care about the issues on the ballot. There is going to be especially low voter turnout. The largest voter turnout will be spurred on by Proposition 73, the parental notification abortion initiative. These people are also far more inclined to support Arnold's amendments.
I don't know how accurate the polls are in capturing the mood of Californians, but I don't think it matters. I don't believe these polls reflect the attitude of the people who will be showing up en masse to vote on Tuesday. That is all that matters.
I hope you are right.