FRED'S GREATEST ROLE?: an alternative theory of Senator Thompson's not-yet candidacy

4.11.07 | Mia T

[Mia T]

FRED'S GREATEST ROLE?
an alternative theory of Senator Thompson's not-yet candidacy

 

by Mia T, 4.11.07

 

The absurdity of flipping the premise of reality TV to make a stage-and-screen president America's president appears to be lost on a generation of social conservatives inured to the virtual surreality ¹ of clintonian politics and terrified by the prospect a President Giuliani.

To add to the real-virtual complexity, what if Thompson is not planning to jump in at all? What if this is just another role? What if Fred is playing Perot for his friend, John McCain, (who, in this analogy is clinton to Rudy's Bush 41)?

That is, what if Thompson's sole purpose is to give McCain the nomination by skimming off just enough conservatives from Rudy? (NB: gross is net, i.e., McCain has no conservative support to lose.)

The latest Gallup numbers suggest that Thompson's support is coming almost exclusively from Rudy. (See graph.)

This theory would explain Fred's unwillingness to declare.

Of course, if the plan doesn't work, then Fred may jump off the stage and into the race for real.

 

Also see:
EARTH TO LAMAR: FRED THOMPSON LOOKING THE PART AIN'T ENOUGH (41-second video FLUB)

[massadvj]

I like your theory. Its only weak link is that it requires believing the GOP has the street-smarts to conceive of it and the guts to pull it off. ;)

If you think about it, it doesn't take a conspiracy. All it takes is Fred Thompson making a calculation as to what would be the optimum leverage he can get from the political capital he has. If he wants a bigger governmental legacy than he has now, he calculates that he can leverage his resume to become Veep or AG or SCOTUS. The best way to levaerage his capital is to fake running, help out the eventual nominee, and seek a reward afterwards.

Thompson is not Reagan. Thompson is a Washington insider, having come up through the ranks of the senate as senate counsel. He well knows how Washington politics is played, and he is playing.

That does not mean he won't eventually run. But he'll wait to see if there is a big enough vacuum before he decides. Apparently, his 10 percent base is willing to give him all the time he needs, and that has benefits as well.

[massadvj]

Fred's certainly a potent factor in the race, but it seems to be as a kingmaker, not as the king. I wonder who he's actually angling to work for

He is working for himself. All politicians do. As you say, he wins whether McCain or Rudy gets the nod. There is no reason to make a move. Politicians love it when they win through inaction or delay.

[massadvj]

In its zeal to help Rudy, the GOP may unwittingly be helping McCain.

I certainly haven't seen any evidence of it. McCain is sinking like a rock in the polls and his capital is drying up. Even the MSM has turned on him. I think he is toast.

The question is will McCain's downfall create a big enough vacuum for a Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich to fill. With both CA and NY pushing their primaries forward, I don't see how any other candidate stands a chance. Rudy can lose Iowa, NH, SC and then sweep NY and CA and have the commanding lead in electoral votes that makes him the front runner through the rest of the primaries. No conservative can raise enough money to Beat Giuliani in NY and CA.

This is the reality staring Gingrich and Thompson in the face, as well as their potential financial supporters, and will ultimately be the reason they do not run.

[massadvj]

Pathetic, Groveling, Rabid, Crusader, you’ve gotta chill out some.

Well, I did say "crusaders". I had originally typed "sycophants" but decided it was a little harsh.

[Mia T]

Gingrich is unelectable. He may be the only R extant with a Q score lower than hillary’s.

[redgirlinabluestate]

Yes, but they say only 3% of the cases transform into the more aggressive, more lethal, variety of cancer. That is good news for Fred. I’ll be interested to see how he looks on Cavuto today since he is in remission. Prayers up for Fred and family. His little girl needs him more than we do....

[Mia T]

Those are great odds. I didn’t know that. Thanks for the info. :)

[cookcounty]

"The absurdity of flipping the premise of reality TV to make a stage-and-screen president America's president appears to be lost on a generation of social conservatives....

It worked with Reagan. What's wrong with being such an excellent communicator that the TV producers want you on their show? Communication is critical. Ninety percent of Bush's problems stem from the fact that he's not good at it. Duncan Hunter has a wonderful set of position papers, but can he connect with people? Not so far, and he has less time than Fred to get it together.

[cookcounty]

"Rudy's accomplishing the impossible - he's making McCain palatable."

Yeah, sort of. Against the Dems, I'd still make the trip to the polls for Rudy, but McCain is (without enthusiasm) somewhat better, and if I had to choose between the two in a primary, I'd go with McCain.

[Mia T]

Absolutely true. Ability to communicate is necessary (witness, as you point out, Bush). But it is not sufficient (witness clinton).

[cookcounty]

"he's pretty much in the same boat as Guiliani and McCain as cancer survivors." ....that pretty well sums it up. Wasn't there something recent about McCain's skin cancer possibly kicking up? A new spot or something?

[Mia T]

Speaking of which, hillary clinton is a terrible communicator....

[cookcounty]

"...wonder why he would announce that if he wasn’t planning on running?

Yeah, this is 3 years old, why now? Fred is staying officially out because it prolongs the positive press and gives the rank and file plenty of time to get to know Giuliani's record, which leaves a great deal to be desired (except for the Rocke-feller Republicans, who apparently are having something of a resurgence).

[cookcounty]

"People ask what is it about Fred Thompson that people are so excited about ?

He's a communicator.

AND He's a winner.

In his 2 races for high office (same number as Ronald Reagan), Fred utterly and completely demolished his opponents.

[cookcounty]

"That is, what if Thompson's sole purpose is to give McCain the nomination by skimming off just enough conservatives from Rudy?

Wouldn't that require Rudy being a conservative?

That would be logical, but McCain's problems are not so much ideological as with his image. He votes conservative 70% of the time, but what's he been passionate about? Conservative issues? Nope. He's passionate about deals with the liberals on questionable legislation. His passion is in that 30% where he doesn't vote conservative.

And conservatives have a problem with a guy that loves to schmooze with the people that are constantly dumping on the conservatives, while he avoids and ignores conservative forums.

I have the feeling he wants my vote, but when he walks away, he's reaching for his hanky to hold his nose. It would be helpful if (at long last) he direct a little "straight talk" at the liberals and their sycophants in the press. With the Imus/Rutgers flap, McCain should start with making a fuss with CBS making all this cash off HoHo Rap while all the other networks' reporters are looking at the ceiling. Or their shoes. Or wherever the Beacons of Truth are sequestering themselves.

[gonzo]

If Thompson gets in the race, I hope it's his intent to win.

McManiac just thinks that it's his turn to be President!

We had a losing try with Bob Dole in '96, because of that mentality, and although Dole is a good man, he lost! We don't need to repeat that.

We need a Candidate that can win! .............. FRegards

[stephenjohnbanker]

: )

[Gracey]

Fred will pull from everyone including Rudy & McCain. His philsophy & voting record is closer to McCain’s than Hunters. However, you have a point. He & McCain are big buds. I can’t see Fred entering the race with McCain still in there. Something doesn’t gel with that scenariio.

[Gracey]

Besides McCain being close friends with Fred Thompson, his other close friend and shadow is the Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham.

[Gracey]

Mia’s had her head together since the day she set hand & fingers on FR. LOL

She’s our “ AWESOMEST” freeper, along with Alamo Girl. :-)