Skip to comments.
Shattering the Bell Curve; The power law rules. (Review of <i>The Black Swan</i>- not IQ related
Opinion Journal ^
| April 24, 2007
| DAVID A. SHAYWITZ Author of review
Posted on 04/24/2007 6:04:47 PM PDT by Excellence
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-22 next last
Truly, a beautifully-written review. Go to Amazon.com and read the forward of the book. If I understand what I have read so far, this book would help tear apart the "knowledge" behind the climate models, which cannot even "predict" the past.
To: Excellence
The author, Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has an impressive
c.v.I just had to check it out because a) I was certain that he has an arabic or near Arabic name, but.
b) I was more certain that his book could not have been written by someone who grew up among muslims, or educated as a muslim, nor living even remotely in a muslim-controlled environment.
2
posted on
04/24/2007 6:45:44 PM PDT
by
Publius6961
(MSM: Israelis are killed by rockets; Lebanese are killed by Israelis.)
To: Excellence
Thank you for posting this. I will be adding this book to my collection. It sounds like he has managed to explain clearly something I have sensed but have been frustrated as how to communicate.
3
posted on
04/24/2007 6:51:38 PM PDT
by
Harmless Teddy Bear
(Mobile phones kill more people than exploding cupboards, ironing boards and Godzilla)
To: Excellence
I ordered this book this morning as soon as I read the Wall Street Journal editorial.
It is the answer to anyone who thinks they can predict the future! Like ferinstance, democrats who know what social security will be like 25 years from now.
4
posted on
04/24/2007 6:52:03 PM PDT
by
maica
(America will be a hyperpower that's all hype and no power -- if we do not prevail in Iraq)
To: maica
It is the answer to anyone who thinks they can predict the future! Like ferinstance, democrats who know what social security will be like 25 years from now.... and keep adding beneficiaries that have contributed little or nothing to the system, nor are entitled to benefits any more than al qaeda is...
5
posted on
04/24/2007 6:54:54 PM PDT
by
Publius6961
(MSM: Israelis are killed by rockets; Lebanese are killed by Israelis.)
To: Publius6961
An Arabic first and last name with Nicholas as a middle name indicates a Christian Arab. He may well have grown up “among” Mohammedans but his worldview would be very different.
6
posted on
04/24/2007 6:58:38 PM PDT
by
arthurus
(Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
To: maica
I ordered it from Wal-Mart for $16.80. I can hardly wait to get my hands on it.
7
posted on
04/24/2007 7:37:23 PM PDT
by
Excellence
(Three million years is enough! Stop cyclical climate change now!)
To: Excellence
What does this have to do with black swans?
8
posted on
04/24/2007 9:39:14 PM PDT
by
Oztrich Boy
(Until Val Kilmer made "The Saint", the phrase "The Roger Moore one was better" was never used)
To: Oztrich Boy
quote:
the rare but pivotal events that characterize life in the power-law world. He calls them Black Swans, after the philosopher Karl Popper’s observation that only a single black swan is required to falsify the theory that “all swans are white” even when there are thousands of white swans in evidence.
To: Excellence
If you are slightly faster than all other runners you will tend to win every race ... not just slightly fewer.
If your business model is slightly better than that of all your competitors you will eventually get most of the customers ... not just a few more.
If you look at undirected things such as average heights of humans then you will get average bell-curve results.
If you look at directied things such as people wanting to pay the lowest price or companies wanting to run at the lowest cost, then you will often get non-linear feedback.
If taller people were generally more desirable and it was relatively easy to control your height, then not even height would not follow a bell-curve.
To: Pikachu_Dad
But what is rare or unusual about a black swan?
11
posted on
04/25/2007 2:11:55 AM PDT
by
Oztrich Boy
(Until Val Kilmer made "The Saint", the phrase "The Roger Moore one was better" was never used)
To: who_would_fardels_bear
"slightly faster"
A point I have been making for years. For a long time people have assumed that dominant athletes, for example, are far superior to their competitors when in fact, like Tiger Woods, they are only maybe a few percentage points better if that. But those few percentage points translate into dominance. Nevertheless even Woods doesn't win every tournament. If it can be measured accurately that I am five percent better than my opponent in let's say tennis, I will thrash him virtually every time. Even being just one percent better would allow me to win better than two thirds of my matches.
To: driftless2
Exactly. Because everyone's performance can vary a bit over time. So each person has a distribution and sometimes Tiger's performance is on the downside of his distribution while Phil Mickelson's performance is on the upside of his and Phil wins.
But by and large Tiger will win when he competes.
To: Excellence
just getting done listening to it on CD. Very interesting. Ideas that I think lots of us have had. I’m going to listen to it again though. Although he repeats himself, his ideas are counter-culture (in the broadest sense), maybe even counter-nature, that I have to listen / read parts of it several times for his ideas to sink in.
I love the fact that he rips into all the social sciences so much.
14
posted on
12/24/2007 10:41:54 PM PST
by
Murtyo
To: Excellence
I always thought the Bell Curve related to the relationship of XsubC vs XsubR.
To: who_would_fardels_bear
It's mostly a function of sample size and an adequately random sampling method. If you impose any kind of selectivity, you are certain to skew the distribution. Las Vegas (or any gambling establishment) understands how to play the odds in a subtle manner. The overall odds are always in favor of the house. They allow enough "black swans" to keep the rest of the fools filling their pockets.
16
posted on
12/24/2007 11:09:01 PM PST
by
Myrddin
To: Excellence
17
posted on
12/25/2007 9:36:43 PM PST
by
neverdem
(Call talk radio. We need a Constitutional Amendment for Congressional term limits. Let's Roll!)
To: Oztrich Boy
The Ozzie edition is called "The White Swan".
To: Excellence; All
In late April (2007), Taleb was interviewed by Russ Roberts in a hour long Podcast where Taleb discusses a few key ideas in his book. You can
go here to listen to this Podcast and you can also read comments from people who had listened to it.
19
posted on
12/26/2007 4:36:30 AM PST
by
LowCountryJoe
(I'm a Paleo-liberal: I believe in freedom; am socially independent and a borderline fiscal anarchist)
To: Excellence
I'm sorry, anyone working with modeling of physical processes characterized by random variables is perfectly aware of the limitations of assumptions of linearity and stationarity, as well as the entire issue of model adequacy. In spite of the somewhat dismissive tone of the article, where linearity, stationarity and normality ("Gaussian-ness") apply
they work superbly. The fact that some people become infatuated with their models at the expense of common sense (or more correctly lose sight of the underlying assumptions) says more about human hubris than any flaws in the models.
This criticism, such as it is, of classical analysis rings tinny in my ear. It reminds me of Lucy van Pelt telling Linus "If Beethoven's so great, why isn't his picture on a bubble gum card."
Which is precisely why Beethoven isn't on a bubble gum card and Gauss' name will be remembered long after Mr. Taleb has passed into well deserved obscurity.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-22 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson