Analysis: Fred Thompson now racing clock

The Politico ^ | August 31, 2007 | Mike Allen

[2ndDivisionVet]

Fred Thompson has been acting like he has all the time in the world to get his campaign going, with his aides and advisers saying they wanted to get a first-class organization humming before the “Law & Order” actor steps out for his close-up.

One adviser, seeking to calm down an excitable reporter, even pointed out that “there will be two World Series” before the 2008 election.

But in fact Thompson – who plans to travel the country with his family in a luxury bus emblazoned with the words “Security, Unity, Prosperity” -- is in a race against time that even some of his core advisers admit he has a chance of losing.

Thompson had raised only a moderate amount of money – below his advisers’ expectations – when he finally filed his first financial statement with the Internal Revenue Service at the end of July.

The excuse was that donors were staying on the sidelines till he made it official.

Now Thompson needs the cash spigot to begin gushing as soon as he appears Thursday at Des Moines’ Polk County Convention Center. He needs to swiftly validate the premise of his campaign, which is that there’s pent-up demand among Republican donors and activists for some alternative to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

So Thompson’s deadline is not Election Day 2008, or even the January nominating contests.

The make-or-break date for his campaign is Sept. 30 – the Federal Election Commission cut-off for the next financial report. That document, which must be filed by Oct. 15, will determine Thompson’s fate. If he looks weak, he is unlikely to get the money, endorsements and grass-roots support that he’ll need to pull off his Houdini act, insiders say.

It amounts to a three-week, do-or-die sprint, and even Thompson does not claim to be a sprinter.

Critics in both parties had suggested that Thompson might try to game the system by not formally launching till Oct. 1 in order to avoid the third-quarter disclosure requirement.

But a Thompson official tells Politico: “The Thompson committee will file a disclosure report with the FEC on Oct. 15 covering all money raised and spent through Sept. 30.”

'We're prepared'

Thompson’s challenge is all the greater because he’s dallied for so long that he won’t get a honeymoon.

His advisers are convinced the press will unleash a blizzard of skeptical and hostile coverage to punish him for taking a nontraditional route to his candidacy.

People close to the campaign say a critical question is whether it was really necessary to begin campaigning two years before the election.

“Look, history could be written, and we got in too late,” said one close Thompson adviser. “We’re prepared for that. Or history could be written and we blew the whistle on this two-year project, and we can do it shorter and faster, and be the guys that end this madness.”

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), who was among the leaders in the House to push Thompson into the race, said Thompson's announcement of an announcement Thursday will provide a needed spark.

"It allows us to go ahead and firm up all these commitments from people who have said, 'If he runs I'm with him,'" Wamp said in a telephone interview from Tennessee after getting off a conference call with Thompson supporters on Thursday.

Wamp, who took a turn firing up supporters on the call, dismissed questions that Thompson's wait had harmed his prospects, but acknowledged that some Republicans had held back this summer.

"[The delay] caused certain people in grass roots and fundraising to say, 'I want a commitment,'" he said. "Well, now a commitment has taken place."

The pressure's on

Still, Thompson’s late money start, and his seeming acknowledgment in an interview with Politico.com last weekend that his summer cash haul had been disappointing, puts intense pressure on him to shake the money tree ferociously in September.

Thompson will hold a fundraiser in Chattanooga on Sept. 10, but other events are in the early states have yet to materialize. Thompson won’t raise cash in Iowa and the chairmen of the New Hampshire and South Carolina GOP said they had yet to hear any word about fundraising in their states.

Thompson is still interviewing consultants and aides and does not yet have a fundraising infrastructure in the early primary states.

“There is nobody here to do it,” said South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson. “And a good fundraiser will cost you 10 grand a month.”

Thompson’s need to ramp up his money machine is urgent, Dawson said. “When you come in with $3.5 million, you’ve opened yourself up to get pounded,” he observed, referring to the amount of money Thompson raised in June.

But Dawson emphasized that Palmetto State GOP voters were still undecided on a presidential pick.

“Hillary just scares the hell out of them down here. ‘Who can beat her’ is the question I get asked at every gas pump. Who can throw the Hail Mary and wield the veto pen.”

Thompson will underscore his independence from the rest of the field by appearing next Wednesday on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” on the same night that the other GOP candidates are appearing on a Fox News debate moderated by Chris Wallace in New Hampshire.

On a conference call for reporters yesterday, Thompson political director Randy Enwright sketched the rest of the roll-out plans, which include “a grass-roots-oriented tour that will go to Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina.

“There will be a second tour that will be the tail end of next week, the 13th through the 15th. We’ll spend several days in Florida and end up in Tennessee for a welcome home party for the senator in his hometown of Lawrenceburg, Tenn., on the 15th.”

Jim Mills, the spokesman for Friends of Fred Thompson, said the organization has “great confidence that once the American people truly get to know Fred Thompson, they will be quite impressed with his life story and his intellect and his passion, and his seriousness for solving some of the big problems.

“This is a mature adult who has a sense of humor and can be self-effacing and truly loves to mix it up with real people,” Mills said. “Fred Thompson is going to surprise some people how engaged he is on some very serious issues.”

[Clara Lou]

I do not understand you people. Thompson is waiting until the normal, traditional time to announce. But you people continue this silly “I don’t believe it” routine—even though there’s a announcement of a declaration date.

[Petronski]

I do not respect your opinion.

[LS]

This is not "history." This is politics 2007. It's much different than in the 1940s or the 1840s. Every generation has different political rhythms.

I've been hooted down around here by TRYING to point out the reality of a campaign. I've worked a couple in my day. You need PEOPLE ON THE GROUND, not on some damn website. You need people in every county: buildings, phones, organizers, callers, walkers, bumperstickers, the whole works. This organization needed to be in place six months ago---EVEN IF Fred didn't announce until Labor Day. You absolutely cannot build an organization overnight. Most of the good people---the pros---are gone, and even if not, it takes months to get an operation humming.

Yes, the press is always biased, and more biased against the more conservative candidates: but that doesn't change reality.

I called Wamp two months ago, offering to help set up Ohio. Nothing. Called again a month ago. Nothing. Now, I'm not Karl Rove or Boss Tweed, but I haven't even heard of any other person in OH who is working on Fred's campaign, so perhaps they might have had the courtesy to at least TALK to me???

[Signalman]

By historical standards, Fred is not getting in the race too late.

For the 1960 campaign, JFK did not announce his candidacy until January 2, 1960.

LBJ did not announce until July 5, 1960!

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/lyndon-b-johnson-announces-candidacy-for-the-presidency/1227976568

[WestSylvanian]

He’s afraid to debate with the other candidates. If he’s afraid of them, how is he going to stand toe to toe with Hillary who’s been honing her skills in numerous debates already?

[xzins]

What’s it mean, then, when I agree with your idea?

:>)

[Petronski]

What happened to the Sept. 4 announcement?

Was that the same as the July 4 announcement, contrived from rumor and conjecture?

[Paperdoll]

Who knows?

[LS]

I think there is a difference between a media hatchet job and political pros, who know how to conduct campaigns, saying that you simply can't wait this long IF you don't already have an organization in place. That's the problem.

People around here act like an army of volunteers is going to run out and join up. Join up where? The organization needs to be in place to enlist them, get information on them, organize them, get them on phones and walking streets with materials (which means up-to-date maps and registration lists), etc. I've worked campaigns---Bush in 2004 had phenomenal organization. People were contacted six months before the general (remember, he was already in office and already had the organization): they had detailed maps with incredible info; armies of walkers with cell phones; and so on.

All of this was PLANNED months before, and the organization was in place months before so it appeared that the volunteers just "showe up." Nothing was further from the truth. I don't think Fred's people have come to grips with this.

[Petronski]

I do.

Anyone paying attention does.

I suspect you do too.

[Petronski]

You lurched uncontrollably into the truth, on one occasion.

[Old_Mil]

Thing is, there's pent up demand for a real reagan conservative. There's also a great deal of fear in the RNC that one might be nominated. Hence the continuous peddling of less as more.

[Tears of a Clown]

Fred isn’t late, everyone else is just starting too early.

Fred doesn’t have to stick to the rules for a headstart or build up a warchest. He’s doing it his way, and if the polls are any indication, he’ll be fine.

People havent been watching the debates anyway. Everyone starts getting into it after labor day. Fred’s timing is fine.

[xzins]

Stranger than fiction how that happens, isn’t it?

[Inspectorette]

how is he going to stand toe to toe with Hillary who’s been honing her skills in numerous debates already?

The Beast has not been honing her skills in these "debates". All of the Dem candidates have been talking in 30-second soundbites - and she DOES have THAT honed to perfection. A debater, she's not.

[xzins]

Everyone starts getting into it after labor day. Fred’s timing is fine.

Time will tell. I think he hurt himself. At the same time, I think he'll be the nominee and will run against Hillary.

The hurt will become apparent in regards to money.

[iowamark]

who plans to travel the country with his family in a luxury bus

Oh, that rich Republican traveling in luxury! Unlike the working class Democrats!

[DelaWhere]

1. (CNN is the Amtrak of News)??? Does that mean that we taxpayers are subsidizing CNN with ridiculous amounts of money???

2. This 'fad' of running for 2+ years for an election as well as the race to be first with their primaries will die a quick death... States and candidates will both question if it is really in their best interest to run out on that limb before the dust and dirt settles.

3. I think candidates will find that tapping so much of their financial resources so early will force them to spend more and more time trying to wring out every cent to just keep their long campaigns going. Not good for candidates, and not good for supporters.

[asparagus]

He’s not afraid. He’s just...um...not...ready...ah...for primetime such as...

[WestSylvanian]

Right, and consider this. Here’s the Democrat line of attack if Thompson, God forbid, is the nominee:

“In 2003, when American soldiers headed to Iraq, Thompson headed for the exit and quit his Senate responsibilities before his term was even over. While Hillary was putting in long hours on the Senate floor, Thompson was putting in long hours on a movie set.”

“The Republicans in the Congress are in bed with Jack Abramoff and other lobbyists. Now they propose to put a professional lobbyist in the White House. We Democrats are the party of reform; we’ve passed landmark legislation to curb the corrupt practices of lobbyists. The Republicans want to return to the old days and their old ways. We’re not going to let them.”

Thompson has so much baggage he needs to hire a fleet of eighteen wheelers to haul it around. Add his questionable health and you have a recipe for a Republican defeat that the country cannot afford. Maybe in in some placid, peaceful era he’d be okay, but not now. As Lady Bird Johnson said of her husband’s decision not to run again, “He didn’t think he had any more 16 hour days in him.” How many 16 hour days does Thompson have in him? Not many from the look of him. People backing him are making a massive mistake.