Posted on 09/30/2007 11:11:12 AM PDT by shrinkermd
PRINCETON, NJ -- Rudy Giuliani has led the field of Republican candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination in every Gallup Poll since January. In the most recent nationwide poll of Republicans, 30% name Giuliani as their first choice for the party's nomination, giving him an eight-point lead over second place Fred Thompson who registers 22% support. John McCain is in third place at 18% and Mitt Romney is in fourth at 7%, with the five other announced candidates all polling at 4% or less.
While nowhere near as dominant as the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, Giuliani, like Clinton, leads among most subgroups within his party [see Related Items]. In fact, Giuliani does no worse than tie for first in each of a number of key Republican demographic groups. But some of Giuliani's weakest showings are among subgroups of the party not likely to embrace his current or past pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control positions -- Southerners, weekly churchgoers, Protestants, and men -- in particular married men.
These insights are drawn from an aggregation of 1,690 interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents taken from four Gallup surveys conducted in August and September. The analysis is primarily limited to the relative standings of the top four Republican candidates, since the minor candidates' support tends to show little meaningful variation by subgroup.
Ideology
Republicans are roughly twice as likely to describe their political views as "conservative" than as either "moderate" or "liberal." Giuliani has a lead among moderate and liberal Republicans as well as conservative Republicans, but his lead is much larger among the former group (21 points vs. 7 points). Thompson and McCain tie as the second place candidate among moderate and liberal Republicans, but Thompson is a clear second among the much larger conservative group.
(Excerpt) Read more at galluppoll.com ...
That doesn't make him any less of a RINO than he has shown to be in the past.
There is NO way Rudy is doing that well in the south.
Giuliani proves himself Mr. September
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0907/6085_Page2.html
Rudy is leading in “most”. But not all.
OK, who is motivated and moste LIKELY to go to the polls in the primary? Sure, Rudy may command some support in various segments of “Republicans”, but where is he in the heartland? Is Chicago suddenly going to convert to a Republican stronghold? How about Manhattan? Or Long Beach?
The way I see it, Mitt finishes Rudy's "the one who can beat Hillary" with a clear win in Iowa, and a squeaker in New Hampshire. Fred will top Rudy in both places, then will finish him off in the rest of the states, especially the Southern ones. Rudy's been counting on winning NY and CA, but the liberals will be too focused on the Clinton-Obama race to make trouble for us. He could win those two states, but not by much.
I don't understand your point. What difference does it make whether someplace is a "Republican stronghold"? We're talking about the primary. Even if only 20% of people somewhere are Republicans, if 80% of those 20% prefer Giuliani, that makes him the front-runner there. (Unless we're talking about places with open primaries?)
I agree. Must be the powers that be are pushing him on us.
I’m not excited about any of the candidates.
Rudy needs to be tougher about border policy
It does matter, because a primary isn’t a direct election. Urban GOP voters will be more liberal than those in rural Alabama, the timing’s everything.
The polling in suburban/exurban areas holds the key IMO - those people will be intra-party “swing voters”.
>>>Rudy needs to be tougher about border policy<<<
I don’t know how much the GOP voters really values the border.
The fact that Giuliani and McCain are still polling well shows as much.
You have a guy like Romney who has a better record than either of the above and actually addresses the issue thoroughly, and he can’t get traction. Nor can Hunter or Tancredo.
*shrugs shoulders*
Even Thompson, who has been doing well, is not a supporter of the fence or going aggressively after employers who hire illegals with higher fines. No word on his opinions on IDs.
“In the most recent nationwide poll of Republicans, 30% name Giuliani as their first choice for the party’s nomination, giving him an eight-point lead over second place Fred Thompson who registers 22% support. John McCain is in third place at 18% and Mitt Romney is in fourth at 7%, with the five other announced candidates all polling at 4% or less.”
The article is based on an old poll that ended two weeks ago.
The Rasmassen poll that was just entered on thursday has Thompson leading with 26% against Giuliani’s fall to 20%.
Right now the national leader is Fred Thompson.
Poll Rudy Fred John Mitt Huck
09/23 - 09/26 20 26 11 13 6 Thompson +6
I still think Mitt is going to be the nominee.
He’s a former governor. That’s a big advantage.
He’s got a record of outstanding success in the business world.
Like Giuliani, Mitt has a record of fiscal responsibility and tax-cutting. and he will be tough on the WOT. But he also has the advantage of being less socially liberal than Rudy.
But no matter if it’s Rudy, Mitt or Fred, I’m voting “R” in 2008. The alternative is just too horrible to contemplate.
Notice,
They are now PARSING INTO SUB GROUPS!
The MSM is struggling to keep Guiliani ahead.
“Only in one poll:”
Yes, the only new one, even newer than the second newest one that you linked to (which also supports my point). Not a two week old one that this story uses.
I’ll believe a Gallop poll when I see what the actual questions asked of respondants are ,, and when I see the breakdown of blue state/red state respondants ,, they break down self-identified conservative and liberal/moderate republicans .... I’ll bet they overweighted “liberal republicans” (an obvious oxymoron) in the southern states..
outherners, weekly churchgoers, Protestants, and men — in particular men.
That fits me (all but the married part).
last Guiliani poll was 9/16
last poll OVERALL is 9/23 has Thompson +5
This has not been updated in a while.
Why is the MSM not reporting this weeks numbers? Are they trying to see if the “Save the NYC lawyer” stories needing to sink in?
“I agree. Must be the powers that be are pushing him on us.”
Old polling is the basis for this already oudated story.
Fred Thompson is now the national front runner according to the latest polling.
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