Boy, that sounds like the definition of second tier.
With 50% of the voters expressing either "unknown" or enough uncertainty about their 1st choice to change their minds, it means a lot more than that.
Don't forget the Iowa is a caucus state, which basically allows folks to convince each other as the votes are happening -- with the support for all candidates across the board being as soft as it currently is, almost nothing should be considered unlikely as a result.
Well fine. Fred can cling to “anything is possible”, but right now it doesn’t look good. Why isn’t he a first choice?