Posted on 02/25/2008 3:06:36 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 218 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 320 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 233.56 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I can’t see any way that McCain can win.
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 50.5. These average to 50.25.
Thus, the tie goes to the Republican Presidential candidate.
The Democrats don’t even have a prayer in Florida. McCain has a god shot at taking OH, MO, WI, OR, PA, NM, MA.
He can win. It’s not difficult to see how.
Depends on who he faces. If it’s Obama, he loses unless there is a miracle. But if it’s Hillary, that map gets a lot more red.
The traders are assuming an Obama win. (plus, their track record this election isn’t exactly perfect)
For example, in this scenario:
1) McCain will win FL easily.
2) A simple defection of the Catholic vote in two states (WI, PA) gives McCain a 276 EV victory. (Think: Obama’s Born Alive filibuster and opposition to Roberts/Alito.)
It’s quite easy to see really.
“I can’t see any way that McCain can win.”
I can’t see any way that Obama can win.
In that scenario I laid out he could even lose Nevada and still have 271 EVs.
So, as in past election, all the Left has to do is win the states Algore won in 2000, plus FL, and the election is theirs.
Just about right.
The States that they have shown as flipped from RED to BLUE are (on top my head):
FLORIDA
COLORADO
NEX MEXICO
IOWA
OHIO
New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio were “IFFY” anyway, EVEN on a good year.
Florida was comfortable win in last election cycle but 536 vote win before that.
Colorado is bit odd.....they must have increased Mexican presence or gone further left in Denver.
I think unless some drastic changes happen, this would infact be BEST CASE scenario for Republicans.
It could get worse if Hillary wins nomination, as she would flip Arkansas and some other Souther States like Virginia and Arizona.
Nevada could also flip.
I mostly agree, although MA is a bit of a stretch.
McCain is very big on re-training programs. He would emphasize that and also point out that Obama’s spending regime would be reckless for our economy.
I don’t see how Arkansas shows up red.
Yes, it went for GW, but things have changed.
It has a Dem Governor, two Dem US Senators (1 who will probably be re-elected in 08), and 3 of the 4 US Representatives are Dems.
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