Posted on 08/11/2008 4:18:35 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Still good bargains to be had in Ohio and Colorado.
Not correct. Of the last 5 polls, only one gives McCain a lead in Ohio.
I believe a 269-269 tie with the rat house breaking the tie is the only formula for an obamessiah victory. The only states I see him with a reasonable chance of winning are all the states that went blue in either 2000 OR 2004, plus Nevada. While I acknowledge that VA and CO are drifting left, it would take quite a lurch for them to go blue this year. Maybe next decade they will.
However, if McCain picks Lieberman, this all goes out the window... the obamessiah will get 300+ in that case.
Notice in 2004 Bush was 82% lock on Colorado. Why cannot this be placed in McCain’s column? After all McCain is a westerner. If he wins it and Ohio (which he will) then he is over the top.
As mentioned he should also win New Hampshire (they love him up there) and Michigan if he picks Romney or PA if he takes Ridge.
You've heard the adage that this election is all about Obama? I agree with this except in the case of Iowa. Remember that McCain finished a distant fourth in Iowa ( then the msm spun his distant fourth into a close second ). Also remember that Iowa Republicans are primarily social conservatives, which is why Huckabee did so well and McCain so poorly.
I expect Iowa to tighten up a bit more as the social conservatives' fear of the obamessiah grows, but I don't know if it will be enough for McCain to win.
Same logic applies to any state that goes to Obama come November.
Iowa truly is a swing state:
They voted for President Nixon in 1968 and 1972, President Ford in 1976, and President Reagan in 1980 and 1984.
However, in 1988, Dukakis won Iowa. The state subsequently voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and Gore in 2000.
They then flipped over in 2004 for President Bush.
Think they will see the light by November?
I understand there is no love lost between McCain and former (cringe) Sen. Santorum but what a choice it would be!
“Why cannot this be placed in McCain’s column? After all McCain is a westerner.”
The last two polls in Colorado were Rasmussen, which had Obama up by 7 and Quinnipiac, which had McCain up by two. Of the two, Rasmussen is the better pollster. Geography isn’t destiny. New Mexico is next door to Arizona and Rasmussen has Obama up there by 5 points.
Keep in mind that the electoral map has never looked the same two elections in a row, so while analyzing previous elections is instructive, it is not determinative.
“Polls consistently show McCain up by 6-10 points in Ohio, for example.
Not correct. Of the last 5 polls, only one gives McCain a lead in Ohio.”
Irrespective of what polls say today, McCain will win Ohio by at least 5 point and probably by more. There’s not enough urban libs, union workers and Blacks in this state to give Obama a real chance of winning this state. Then there’s rural and Appalachian SE Ohio where Obama will not perform well (see primary results).
Even though he lost in his Senate re-election, maybe he clinches Pennsylvania for McCain!
Rasmussen - Obama +3
Quinnipiac - McCain +2
PPP - Obama +4 (they are a Democrat firm)
The movement in the state is all in McCain's direction and as of today the two candidates are virtually tied there. I like our chances of keeping Colorado -- especially if there are problems at the DNC convention.
If you flip Ohio and New Hampshire, we end up tied, and the house of Representatives that we conservatives gave up so easily two years ago picks Obama as President.
McCain is up from 227 Electoral Votes a week ago.
Slowly and surely this will all reverse.
But it’s a bet for something that is out of the control of the bettors, and which takes place 4 months from now, and there is much that is unknown to the bettors.
Lots of money is bet on who will win the World Series and the Superbowl, but I wouldn’t expect that the team with the biggest bets 4 months from the final are going to win.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
| 21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
| 28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
| 4-Aug | 234.45 | 16.45% |
| 11-Aug | 242.62 | 21.56% |
For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 11-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 234.99, Probability of 270 = 4.16%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in 264.60 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 41.31% chance of winning.
-PJ
Ohio Florida Michigan Missouri. Just like always.
From Rasmussen:
“Tuesday, July 22, 2008
In Colorado, Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by seven percentage points, 49% to 42%. However, when leaners are included, McCain is more competitive and pulls to within three points, 50% to 47%.
A month ago, the race was a toss-up, but two months ago Obama led by six.”
Two months ago by six, a month ago a toss up, now up by 7 isn’t a movement in McCain’s direction, it’s a movement in Obama’s. You’re counting on those leaners, which pollsters will tell you is a very dangerous thing thing to do, especially since McCain voters are telling pollsters they may change their minds at very high rates, much higher than those who are saying the same about Obama.
As for Quinnipiac, you better hope they’re not right, even if you like the result in Colorado. Their latest polls have Obama up in OH, PA and FL.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.