Posted on 08/11/2008 4:18:35 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 242.62 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
What did Kerry have at this same point in time?
Mich., Ohio, and NH are not shoo-ins for the RATS.
So it comes down to Ohio.....
It’s a long time ‘til November and Americans have short attention spans.
Take away Ohio and Barack is down to 273 then we need to take back one more state.
Easy?
Obama was at 311 last week.
I am so tired of the Intrade posts. Polls consistently show McCain up by 6-10 points in Ohio, for example.
Come on Alabama,you can do better than that,Gee Wiz !
Give McCain Ohio and NH and it's a 269-269 tie. I think MI and CO will go to McCain as well.
Thanks to Bill Frist, it's MOSTLY euro-trash and as such is heavily weighted toward the obamessiah.
McCain wins Ohio. Guaranteed.
Why does Iowa go to Obama?
I know the Left Coast and Northeast regions are loaded with fools, but Iowa?
Sheesh.
If McCain chooses Romney as his VP, he wins Ohio, Michigan and the presidential election.
Why? This isn't a poll. It's a bet. With money on the line, the idea is that participants aren't betting on who they want to win, but on who they think will win given the polls and other factors.
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