Posted on 04/14/2008 5:46:30 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 249.24 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I don’t think McCain’s chances in Ohio are nearly that bad.
I agree! If it is Obama vs McCain McCain wins.
Now that they got Hillary back drinking and puking McCain could very well win in an overwhelming landslide of historic proportions.
Bogus.
It gives Ohio to the Dems, which will be very unlikely if Hussein Obama gets the nod.
It ignores the fact that Michigan is in play with McCain.
It ignores the fact that Wisconsin and New Mexico are always close, and if fraud can be controlled in Milwaukee then Wisconsin goes Republican.
Even Pennsylvania is in play if Hussein Obama gets the nod because while the state is majority Democratic, they will not vote for a black Democrat. Lots of Reagan Democrats who love the red white and blue.
I agree...McInsane could very well be the first modern President to win a landslide, but still be immensely unpopular.
The other two Nimrods running for the office are so disdainful, they make McLame attractive. At least that is how I see the situation.
Some inexorable momentum is building here.
If Nader runs, some blue states will go red.
All we need is OH or PA, and say, CO.
The only thing comparable to this is Nixon in 1972.
Funny, I multiplied the electoral votes by the % chance of winning and came up with 280/McCain and 258/dem.
mcczin takes Ohio and competes in PA.
Absolutely!
All of the Democrat predictions are based on everyone thinking that their candidate will be the nominee.
I have never considered Intrade as a viable source of information or polling. If you look at Rasmussen polling or Gallup, Ohio goes to Mac and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire are competitive.
That does not matter. The dems from highly educated to the poorest all drink the same kool-aid, no, take it intravenously. 24hrs a day.
The dem candidate could shoot a baby on the steps of a church and they would say it is Bush's fault.
It is who they are.
And look what happened to him.
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