2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, March 31, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

So long as the voters in (*yeccchhh*) Seattle continue to disproportionately determine how the state’s electoral votes are allotted, every four years: Washington, I solemnly guarantee you, will never EVER go for Juan over The Obamessiah.

[DM1]

looks like it is trending McCains way
according to this thing if he held all the states indicated here and carried a few others he may actually win this thing

[SmithL]

Put me on your list, please.

Republicans never do well against generic Democrats. Generic Democrats never make it onto the ballot.

[amigatec]

Add me as well.

[Ciexyz]

PA, trending hopelessly blue.

[skully]

For what it's worth; I've been keeping track based on polling, and project McCain winning 327 to 211. That's with Obama being the nominee. I didn't bother with Hillary, cuz I don't think she'll get the nod. I assigned the state to whoever was leading in aggregate polling; which there's not much data for at this point. Many states are toss ups still, so your numbers seem feasible. If I had to put a percentage on a McCain Obama match up...I put McCain at about a 55% chance to win.

[EDINVA]

pretty much every state has that situation where major metro area(s) dominate(s) the rest of the state, i.e., NY/CA/NV/IL/MI for starts.

[TomGuy]

This chart shows why the Dems would like to get rid of the Electoral College and rely on the popular vote.

50 Largest Cities		2005 Est Pop		Dem Cities	GOP Cities
New York	N.Y.	8,143,197		8,143,197
Los Angeles	Calif.	3,844,829		3,844,829
Chicago	Ill.	2,842,518		2,842,518
Houston	Tex.	2,016,582			2,016,582
Philadelphia	Pa.	1,463,281		1,463,281
Phoenix	Ariz.	1,461,575			1,461,575
San Antonio	Tex.	1,256,509			1,256,509
San Diego	Calif.	1,255,540		1,255,540
Dallas	Tex.	1,213,825			1,213,825
San Jose	Calif.	912,332		912,332
Detroit	Mich.	886,671		886,671
Indianapolis	Ind.	784,118			784,118
Jacksonville	Fla.	782,623			782,623
San Francisco	Calif.	739,426		739,426
Columbus	Ohio	730,657		730,657
Austin	Tex.	690,252			690,252
Memphis	Tenn.	672,277			672,277
Baltimore	Md.	635,815		635,815
Fort Worth	Tex.	624,067			624,067
Charlotte	N.C.	610,949			610,949
El Paso	Tex.	598,590			598,590
Milwaukee	Wis.	578,887		578,887
Seattle	Wash.	573,911		573,911
Boston	Mass.	559,034		559,034
Denver	Colo.	557,917		557,917
Louisville-Jefferson County	Ky.1	556,429			556,429
WashingtonDC
Nashville-Davidson	Tenn.2	549,110			549,110
Las Vegas	Nev.	545,147		545,147
Portland	Ore.	533,427		533,427
Oklahoma City	Okla.	531,324			531,324
Tucson	Ariz.	515,526			515,526
Albuquerque	N.M.	494,236		494,236
Long Beach	Calif.	474,014		474,014
Atlanta	Ga.	470,688			470,688
Fresno	Calif.	461,116		461,116
Sacramento	Calif.	456,441		456,441
New Orleans	La.	454,863			454,863
Cleveland	Ohio	452,208		452,208
Kansas City	Mo.	444,965			444,965
Mesa	Ariz.	442,780			442,780
Virginia Beach	Va.	438,415			438,415
Omaha	Nebr.	414,521			414,521
Oakland	Calif.	395,274		395,274
Miami	Fla.	386,417			386,417
Tulsa	Okla.	382,457			382,457
Honolulu	HI	377,379		377,379
Minneapolis	Minn.	372,811		372,811
Colorado Springs	Colo.	369,815		369,815
Arlington	Tex.	362,805			362,805
Total population		45,317,550		28,655,883	16,661,667

[LiveFree99]

PA has been going blue for a while now. Looks like Ohio is going that way, too. If the Rats win Ohio in November then McCain loses.

[Momaw Nadon]

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

pretty much every state has that situation where major metro area(s) dominate(s) the rest of the state, i.e., NY/CA/NV/IL/MI for starts.

Of course they do; nor have I ever argued otherwise. The unvarnished fact remains, however: Seattle will always, ALWAYS tack towards the left-most candidate, in any given election... and, as Seattle goes, so too (sadly) does the rest of the state, electorally.

Them's the facts, like 'em or otherwise (amd I, plainly, do not).

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Looks like Ohio is going that way, too.

Given all the Republican-related scandals in that state over the past few years -- all still distressingly fresh, doubtless, in the minds of the "swing" voters therein -- I'd be stunned and then some were ANY Republican nominee for the presidency to end up carrying Ohio in '08, personally... although I'm certainly willing to be convinced otherwise, should any Ohio FReepers care to weigh in to that effect.

[LiveFree99]

Add in the fact that the drive-by media will be constantly wailing about the “horrible” economy and you get an almost no-win scenario for McCain. A lot can still happen until November, but it sure isn’t looking good.

[EDINVA]

hey, don’t complain to ME ... I’m (originally) from New York .. you think Seattle is bad? ha!!!

But .... what happened in ‘84 ??? Reagan carried all but Mondale’s home state. How did RWR capture the electoral votes of places like NY/CA/WA, etc ? Were we that different a people then? Reagan was as bashed in the press in those days as W is now. He was portrayed as a heartless, OLD, gun-slinger who’d bring us to the brink of nuclear war. Yet, he won overwhelmingly. I’d love to figure out when/how we went so far off-track and became so divided.

[GunRunner]

McCain will take Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Possibly Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. Maybe New Mexico.

Once you have Obama's name in there instead of "generic Democrat", you'll see this flip to McCain 285, Obama 253.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

But .... what happened in ‘84 ??? Reagan carried all but Mondale’s home state. How did RWR capture the electoral votes of places like NY/CA/WA, etc ?

Reader's Digest condensed answer: this state was a vastly, almost inconceivably different sort of place a quarter-century ago, than it is today -- long, looonnnnnnnnnng before countless unwashed, sandaled, patchouli-drenched hordes of liberals from CA, OR and (now that you mention it) NY descended upon us, en masse, after Seattle's being hailed nationwide, back in the '80s, as "The Most Liveable City In the U.S.!" (Grrrrrrrrr.)

It's still quite the sore spot with a great many of us hereabouts, quite frankly... and for obvious reasons. My apologies if I sounded snappish. ;)

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Possibly [...] Michigan

Good luck with that.

[Bean Counter]

Here’s a mind-bug for all of you...

What would the map look like with a McCain/Clinton ticket?? No,I didn’t mistype that....

Think about the net result if Obama is the DemocRat nominee...Hillary might as well be McCain’s Veep at that point because I think many if not most of her followers would hold their noses and vote for McCain before they would ever vote for Obama...especially if this goes all the way to the Convention in August.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

What would the map look like with a McCain/Clinton ticket??

I'd be far more intensely interested -- initially, at least -- in witnessing what this board would look like in such an eventuality. ;) The Team McCain shills hereabouts, after all, have been waving the increasingly threadbare and ineffectual "HILLARYHILLARY BOOGABOOGABOOGA!" scarecrow about, attempting to frighten conservatives into voting for their anointed RINO du jour, come November.

Personally, I think it'd be funnier than hell, watching them all scrabbling frantically about in their sudden attempt to pull off a collective 180-degree turn and begin lecturing, blandly, that "... well, Hillary's actually pretty darned conservtive, really..." I'd buy popcorn. ;)

[Momaw Nadon]

This week's "battleground" states (30.0% - 69.9%):

27 Florida 68.5%

13 Virginia 55.5%

11 Missouri 52.0%

5 Nevada 48.5%

9 Colorado 47.5%

4 New Hampshire 40.5%

20 Ohio 37.3%

5 New Mexico 36.5%

10 Wisconsin 35.0%

17 Michigan 34.5%

7 Iowa 34.0%

21 Pennsylvania 33.8%

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Hmmmm Let’s see, McCain is losing by 58 electoral votes, Yup, that settles it! McCain is “trending” for a win......

And wait till the MSM gets through with him. 8 months left before the election........ The Chickens aren’t ready for counting quite yet.

[Momaw Nadon]

Yup, that settles it! McCain is “trending” for a win......

If you check the links of previous projections in Post #2 and look at the chart in Post #14, it is clear that the "trend" is in McCain's favor.

He's still under 270 Electoral Votes at this time, but if the trend continues at its current pace, McCain will be ahead by 11/4/2008.

[RichardW]

I see that Nevada flipped to the Dems. Going in the wrong direction. Can McCain win Pennsylvania?

[Bean Counter]

It’s scenarios like this that make Ralph Nader look better to me, as he’s the guy most likely to do the least amount of damage...

[Momaw Nadon]

McCain went down by 2% in Nevada over the past week, and is currently at 48.5%. My guess is that Nevada will probably flip back to the GOP.

McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvania have increased since January. On 1/7/2008 he was at 19.0% in Pennsylvania. Today, McCain has a 33.8% chance of winning Pennsylvania according to InTrade.

[skully]

If Obama’s the nominee, I say McCain wins Ohio. The Dems in Ohio tend to be more labor union blue dog types, and many will not vote for a racist America hater like Obama. This Wright thing hurts him in the GE with white independents.
I think any Blue state that Hillary beat Obama in by more then 10 points, will be in play in the fall. e.g Ohio,PA, Mich,NH. I think McCain's chances are better then average. SO the good news is Obama probably won't be President. The bad news is Mccain probably will.

[cynwoody]

These are from the Iowa Electronic Markets:

For the election:

For the Democrat nomination:

[Political Junkie Too]

Bssed on the probabilities in your table above, the expected value of GOP electoral votes is 250. The probability of getting at least 270 Electoral Votes is 29.29%.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

One note on your calculation method... You are trying to calculate the probability-weighted average of Electoral Votes for McCain. Your formula is close, but not exact. What you should do is simply multiply McCain's probability (as a decimal between 0 and 1) of winning a state by that state's electoral college votes, and then sum the results for all states. This will give you the expected value.

The expected value is a point that represents the average of repeated sample elections using the probabilities to determine state wins and losses. The outcomes are plotted on a curve to determine the cumulative probability distribution of repeated elections. Then, you can use the curve to determine the probability of the 270 value or greater occuring.

I've been running 20,000 simulated elections to determine the probability of winning.

-PJ