[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 249.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[M. Dodge Thomas]

I don’t think McCain’s chances in Ohio are nearly that bad.

[tom h]

Bogus.

It gives Ohio to the Dems, which will be very unlikely if Hussein Obama gets the nod.

It ignores the fact that Michigan is in play with McCain.

It ignores the fact that Wisconsin and New Mexico are always close, and if fraud can be controlled in Milwaukee then Wisconsin goes Republican.

Even Pennsylvania is in play if Hussein Obama gets the nod because while the state is majority Democratic, they will not vote for a black Democrat. Lots of Reagan Democrats who love the red white and blue.

[chimera]

This is getting to be ridiculous. These numbers have hardly moved, in spite of all the negative things that have come out against the ‘Rat candidates. Hillary's sniper fire gaffe and the crazy lie Bubba came up with to cover it. Obama’s Rev. Wright fiasco and now his “bitter people” snub of ordinary folks in flyover country. And this ‘poll’ says none of that has changed the dynamic? I find that hard to believe.

[Eccl 10:2]

Some inexorable momentum is building here.

If Nader runs, some blue states will go red.

All we need is OH or PA, and say, CO.

[Bob J]

Funny, I multiplied the electoral votes by the % chance of winning and came up with 280/McCain and 258/dem.

[Red Steel]

Intrade or someone is going to make a lot of money on the many Demo betting suckers if they think the D candidate is going to win.

[MNReaganite]

I have never considered Intrade as a viable source of information or polling. If you look at Rasmussen polling or Gallup, Ohio goes to Mac and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire are competitive.