Posted on 04/21/2008 5:25:44 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 247.86 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
It always strikes me how very few states even project out as 55/45, or closer. About 45 states - at least - are currently projected as a complete blowout for a Dim or A Repub.
Switch Ohio and New Mexico and the Republicans take the cake. Seems very possible. Pennsylvania may even be possible after the Democratic primary.
To quote Thomas Sowell, “Senator John McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can cause me to vote for McCain.”
Pennsylvania may even be possible after the Democratic primary.
LOL! No. Its been two decades...
I just can’t see either dem winning, and especially snobama. Typcial bitter clinging whites will have vote in droves for snobama in order for that to happen. If they do, then they really do deserve the moron label.
Kerry was going to win by a landslide early in 2004.
I'm going to watch the Pennsylvania primary results with great interest.
All things considered, McCain is doing surprisingly well at this stage.
Charlie Cook has the following:
Solid McCain: AL, AK, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, WY
Likely McCain: AZ, AR, TN, VA, WV
Lean McCain: CO, MO
Toss Up: FL, IA, NV, NH, NM, OH, WI
Lean DEM: MI, MN, OR, PA
Likely DEM: DE, ME, WA
Solid DEM: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Shouldn’t that “solid Dem” Catefgory be renamed..
“Complete A**holes”
works for me!
Shouldn’t that “solid Dem” Category be renamed..
“Complete A**holes”
works for me!
The frost belt is the key...Bush lost both Michigan and Minnesota by about 3% in 2000 and 2004, and lost Wisconsin by like 5,000 votes in both years too.
These states together account for a total of 39 electoral votes. Maybe this will be the year that it happens...
Great animation!
sorry for the double post!
PIMF!
Hey now, this isn’t the Daily Kos. :-P
I live in Maine..McCain odds are much higher than 20%, especially after the “cling” comments...I’d put it around 40%. Also Maine splits its electoral votes, chance of McCain winning the leans conservative 2nd Distict - about 80%. Odds are good he’ll get ONE electoral vote from Maine
True - MN in particular is in play.
All depends on Juan’s running mate - this analysis has him pitted against either Democrat - Barack Hussein Obama would be much harder to lose to than Klinton.
I have an odd feeling one solidly Dem state (CT/NJ/MI/MN ?) could go GOP in ‘08.
Depending on who McCain picks as VP, I do too.
That really IS a great animation!
Bush only decisively pulled ahead on Intrade in September. So given the war, given the economy, McCain is doing well.
Ya think that indiscriminate “f” in the middle of the word Category was a Freudian slip....or what?
/s
don’t know if you caught Fox News Sunday yesterday (I caught pieces of reruns, was too busy watching B-16) but Juan Williams mentioned more than once how astounded he is that McCain is doing as well as he is given this is not supposed to be a good year for any Republican, much less one who’s not the fav of the party’s base.
January 2009 inauguration day is guaranteed to be a sickening sight.
Switch those damn colors already.
To red and redder?
Heh... really. As soon as I decide to become a Communist, then I’ll call myself a “red.” Until then...
How about NH??? Considering how much time that McCain has spent in the state, I’m thinking that we take NH.
“Kerry was going to win by a landslide early in 2004.”
Uh, no. He trailed a little in some polls and badly in most until the Dem convention, when he began to close in on the President, but not fast enough to win.
“April 20, 2004 WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Bush increased his lead over Sen. John Kerry in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday, but fewer than half of the respondents said they approved of the way Bush is handling of the war in Iraq. Bush led Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 51 percent to 46 percent in the survey of likely voters, which was conducted Friday through Sunday.”
“9/2004 If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.”
Obama has 60% chance to win Colorado and 25% to win Arkansas? Bull**it.
I think New Hampshire will be favored for us as well.
Strange list. AZ leans McCain? Yeah, ok. He’s got a 20-25 point lead there. Florida is tossup? McCain has substantial leads over Obama in both FL and MO. If anything FL is at least “lean” McCain and maybe even “likely.”
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