Posted on 05/12/2008 4:16:41 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.31 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
McLame has already announced that he will not attack any fellow RATs in the campaign so watch for President Osama Obama next January.
Yeah, does he expect everyone else to do it for him, or what? All McCain needs to do is run clips of Obama himself speaking! No need to allege that he did something bad 20 years ago, Obama has made his beliefs perfectly clear - and I don’t think most Americans agree with them. Even Wyomingians.
BTTT
2008 ping
I’m still looking at CO and IA going to McLame, B. Hussein’s win at the Hawkeye Cauci notwithstanding.
The big one though is Ohio. That might be THE battleground state this go ‘round.
If I recall correctly, this week is the first time Ohio has been over 40% this year.
If I can find a way to place bets here without violating the law, I just may do so. I’d take those odds in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
It’s hard to beat a generic candidate. Put Obama’s name up there and see if the map doesn’t look a bit different
I can’t say that surprises me, I thought that Ohio would be the state that will make or break the election for a while now. That having been said, I’m not entirely sure B. Hussein can win there—should he end up indeed being the nominee.
“should he end up indeed being the nominee.”
As long as they keep his airplane under strong guard, he should make it.
Nothing illegal about futures trading. Buy away.
Each week is just a snapshot.
If you look at all of the projections since January, it’s clear that the momentum is in McCain’s favor.
BTW, your tagline is hilarious!
Why, thank you! :)
Just from what I’ve taken a look at, I think a lot of the early projections was the under the impression that Hillary! would be the eventual nominee. I know one of the drive-by networks (ABC I believe) tonight had a Wash. ComPost poll that said that B. Hussein has someting like a 51-46 lead over McCain, which is meaningless because that’s not how Presidential elections are decided.
Got to love that public education...
Thanks. One thing you don’t have to ping me for. Momaw gets me for this.
Unless you can get away with creatively trading cattle futures. :)
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