Posted on 05/05/2008 4:52:32 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 249 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 289 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 250.50 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Right if McCain takes Ohio, which he will, they will tie at 269
I enjoy glancing at this every week - thanks for posting it.
I’m a bit more pessimistic about Missouri, though. We have no Senate seats up, we’re very likely going to lose the governorship, and possibly a House seat in NW Missouri to the Democrat former mayor of Kansas City (who just moved back into the district, imagine that).
There isn’t anything to get Republicans to the polls here, in my view.
McCain will only take Ohio if Obama is able to hold off Hillary tomorrow night. If not, then McCain is history because people in Ohio are fond of the Clintons.
Well I guess we don’t need to have an election in November. This is, at best, an educated guess on the part of the traders. For example, don’t they think the result might be different based on who becomes “the Democratic Presidential candidate”?
McCain loses to “Unnamed” Democratic candidate. Keep in mind that “unnamed” candidates do not have baggage, voting records or say dumb things on the campaign trail.
Once the Democrat is named, everything changes.
GREAT thread. Thanks for posting it. McCain bugs me in many ways, but one thing I am pretty sure about: he cares more about this country more than the other two combined.
Very true.
If "Operation Chaos" proceeds as planned, that might not be until August.
I agree, and I only hope a lot of voters who claim they will sit out this year come to the same conclusion you have.
Finally got NH right. Now they have to work on NM and CO.
Agreed.
Thanks for the ping.
What’s with the District of Columbia? There’s no electoral votes there.
Well, mea culpa. My bad. I didn’t realize that the 23rd amendment covered that. What a shame. Let’s make the District part of Maryland.
http://www.fathermag.com/US_Constitution/23rd_amendment.shtml
It was 327 Dem; 211 Rep, in January. Considering the two Dems have rec’d MUCH more free (fawning) coverage since before that time, McCain has the momentum.
McCain is also courageous in ways they aren’t, even excluding his Vietnam trials and tribulations. He is funny too, and has a sense of humor about himself. Hillary can fake that pretty well, but Obama is too much the tender flower.
Thx
As I am prognostiucating Obama by 4 points in NC, and therefore Obama for the Democratic nomination, I’d say ...
Virginia and Missouri are off the table. We should be slightly favored in Ohio. And, Pennsylvania and maybe Michigan are toss-up’s.
Obama, on the other hand, is still threatening to take Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, and is holding up pretty well in Minnesota and Wisconsen.
Earlier this year, I was thinking Gov. Pawlenty could be the key to a back-up strategy if we lose Ohio (i.e., MN + holding onto CO, IA and NM would make up for losing OH). Now I am thinking the safer route is to try to carry Pennsylvania and/or Michigan in addition to Ohio.
NH back in the red...or whatever. I think they should reverse the color scheme. NH is very close though.
Source, based on polling as of 2008-05-05
The problem with all of this is no one has the slightest idea what will happen due to the race factor. I get my hair cut at an inner city barber shop. There are Obama posters and t-shirts everywhere. The guys in there are taking part in the process for the first time ever. But if Hillary wins the nomination, they are going to stay at home.
If, on the other hand, Obama wins, he will be faced with a backlash by the Reagan Democrats and some union groups even as he runs up big margins in the inner cities.
My own opinion is that it will be easier for McCain to lose by being too hot than it is for either Clinton or Obama to win.
McVey
The problem with all of this is no one has the slightest idea what will happen due to the race factor. I get my hair cut at an inner city barber shop. There are Obama posters and t-shirts everywhere. The guys in there are taking part in the process for the first time ever. But if Hillary wins the nomination, they are going to stay at home.
If, on the other hand, Obama wins, he will be faced with a backlash by the Reagan Democrats and some union groups even as he runs up big margins in the inner cities.
My own opinion is that it will be easier for McCain to lose by being too hot than it is for either Clinton or Obama to win.
McVey
This chart needs to rethink Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. In that order.
This is great stuff but why are Nevada and New Hampshire given to McCain if at 50%? Would appear to be a dead heat; could go either way, couldn’t they?
You’d think McCain has a shot in New Mexico due to him being from Arizona
Yes, that is true.
I set it up to not have ties. Normally, I just look at the first digit of the percentage and color accordingly.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.