2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, August 18, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[San Jacinto]

In Trade seems weird right now. Obama improved since the last posting, and I don't see that in the real world. And Obama is gonna kick McCain's butt in places like Iowa?

I generally put some stock in In Trade, but there look like some bad bets out there right now. I might pay something for Iowa at 26%. I just might.

[Momaw Nadon]

LOL!!!

[DonaldC]

Well, polling has missed the last few presidential elections. Maybe this will be the same.

[GauchoUSA]

Well bud, at least you’re not living in Southern California, that would really make you blue... and red with rage.

[San Jacinto]

Yeah, polls don't mean a whole lot., but In Trade is NOT somebody asking somebody else how they say they will vote-- it is people betting money on who they think will win.

[silentreignofheroes]

Come on Alabama,we can do better than that.

[comebacknewt]

Both Ohio and Colorado were trading at about 65% for Obama jus a couple of days ago. With any more movement in his direction at all, McCain will show a slightlead in the EC on Intrade.

It obviously could still go either way, but I think McCain is in as good a shape as could reasonably be hoped for right now.

[DonaldC]

Ah...I did not know that.. Thanks for the clarification. :)

[comebacknewt]

In Trade seems weird right now. Obama improved since the last posting, and I don't see that in the real world.

He is about even with where he was on the global election market.

In Colorado and Ohio (and to a lesser extent Virginia), he has had a huge dropoff in his numbers over the past week or so. If McCain continues to show well in the battlegrounds, the global number will catch up soon enough.

[TonyM]

I have a feeling the post Saddleback polls are not looking so good for the rats, that is why we are not seeing them.

[airborne]

I live in the woods in Lebanon County. It’s no big deal to drive into town and see an Amish horse and buggy. All my friends have guns. Cows outnumber people.

So to see PA in blue is mind boggling. Stupid city dwellers!

[AmericaUnited]

I can’t see how Obama is still winning on intrade when the race is pretty well tied in most all polls.

They don't ban stupid people from betting away their hard earned money.

[rhinohunter]

I can’t see how Obama is still winning on intrade when the race is pretty well tied in most all polls.

Quite simple. Thanks to Bill Frist, Americans are banned from playing Intrade. Therefore, the players are now more heavily weighted toward euro-trash than in years past. Euro-trash love the obamessiah.

[Round 9]

Exactly. People buy the hype. It’s like betting Notre Dame football games. You know that people overvalue them and over bet them thereby moving the spread to make them an unrealistic favorite or less of an underdog than they should be.

[Mike Darancette]

I can’t see how Obama is still winning on intrade when the race is pretty well tied in most all polls.

Smart McCain money won't move in until after the conventions if John is close in the polls. I've got my bet on Obama short, John Long, and Dem and Rep VP Field.

[Jet Jaguar]

BTTT

[Mogollon]

Michigan with 35 electoral votes might be flipped with the right VP choice.

[SSS Two]

Michigan with 35 electoral votes might be flipped with the right VP choice.

Michigan has 17 electoral votes.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%

For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 18-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 244.11, Probability of 270 = 11.64%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in 276.06 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 62.05% chance of winning.

The polls are starting to move in McCain's direction. If you think that poll results are oversampling Democrats, then McCain has passed the 270 point already.

On 19-Aug, Rasmussen released the latest Florida poll. McCain jumped from being behind by 1 (45%-46%), to ahead by 3 (46%-43%). This moved McCain to an expected Electoral Votes=254.48, Probability of 270 = 21.21%. With the +/-1.25% adjustment, McCain has expected Electoral Votes=283.72, Probability of 270 = 77.35%.

-PJ