Posted on 08/18/2008 2:58:02 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 232 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 306 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 246.64 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I can’t see how Obama is still winning on intrade when the race is pretty well tied in most all polls.
more specifically since every poll has hussien lowing states (Co, Oh) in the past week....
While I am aware of their previous record they are just off. Call if Obama call it Bradley call it just a weird election year. Obama is not carrying Ohio or NH or VA. And not CO probably either. And IA is not solidly in the dem column.
I feel much better about McCain after this weekend. A few more showings like that and he will have it.
I think a lot of people are buying into the “it is a Democratic year” angle. Along with the Obama spin that they are copying Reagan in 1980 and will surge late. I think it is a pipe dream.
Blue Virginia?
Currently on InTrade:
13 EV Virginia is a 48.5%
20 EV Ohio is at 47.0%
9 EV Colorado is at 45.0%
McCain is currently at 232 EV.
If McCain keeps the states he has, plus wins the three above states, he gets:
232 EV + 13 EV + 20 EV + 9 EV = 274 EV
According to this, McPain should just campaign in OH, NH, and CO and maybe try to reinforce VA. Most states are heavily precommitted.
See Post #11.
We have several ads that will be lined up for those states exposing Obama’s past record.
Where are the hundreds of post Saddleback polls?
The media used to have poll results even before a “debate/forum” was over!
This is the first thing even close, and it’s not post Saddleback. (is it?)
Seems like the InTraders are reticent to get off the Obama bandwagon. They better. There’s been two polls in a row now with Obama trailing by 3 in Colorado. That doens’t equal a 55% chance of victory in my book especially when McCain has a +4% fav rating there.
PA is blue, and that makes me blue. :^(
Two of the last three polls have McCain ahead in OH (one of them, the most recent, a Dem poll), so right there is a swing of 40 EV.
I copied and pasted the numbers about an hour ago from InTrade.
InTrade is realtime.
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