2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, September 1, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[airborne]

The gap narrows ever so slowly.

The debates (if there ever is one) will be the decider.

[Norman Bates]

At 269-269, we lose. The House will then elect Obama.

[balls]

Forget NH and the meaningless “live free or die” motto. It’s now very liberal, thanks to Mass amd NY transplants.

[fortunate sun]

NJ may be in play. If I'm not mistaken, Hillary won 57 over 37 (best recollection).

Couldn't find a "welcome" thread, so I figured I would jump in where I saw the chance.

[TommyJoe]

Well we need to keep an eye on the way Obama wins, he chooses the states that give him the most, and doesn’t really care about the rest. That is how he pulled the nomination out from under the Clinton’s. So having said the, McCain needs to look at those states specifically with specificity, lol

[cincinnati65]

It’s like all the polls I’ve seen that put Georgia in the TOSS-UP category. DREAM ON!!!!!! States don’t get much redder than Georgia.

[MNReaganite]

While this stuff is interesting, intrade should not be taken seriously until we are within a week of the election.

[Norman Bates]

One more thing: I noticed in this cycle that there is more money being bandied about on the dem side than the GOP side. I wonder if because of “general consensus” (i.e., it’s a “democrat year”) and the environment that dems feel more emboldened to give but that all the same entities, giving or not, will vote. What I am trying to say is: are emboldened dem donors overplaying this chart?

[hole_n_one]

Go back to sleep. I'm sure somebody will wake you when the election is over.

[Momaw Nadon]

While this stuff is interesting, intrade should not be taken seriously until we are within a week of the election.

I planned it from the beginning to post the numbers once a week on Mondays.

Monday, November 3, 2008 is one day before the Election.

[meadsjn]

Yes indeed, the trend is our friend!

Yes indeed! The trend above shows McCain with about 300 EV in two months (and that trend started before the Palin announcement).

Consider this: The Obama camp has abandoned (forfeited?) its race between Obama and McCain, and is now trying to regain some traction by framing its race as being between Obama and Palin (losing from the gitgo!). No one seems to know what part, if any, Biden is supposed to be playing.

My prediction for election day: McCain/Palin 535 Electoral Votes; Obama/Biden 5 Electoral Votes.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%
25-Aug	248.30	25.59%
01-Sep	255.23	32.44%

There was a lot of movement in McCain's favor this week. Alaska moved 11.3% more towards McCain; Arkansas moved 6.5%; Colorado moved 8.8%; Indiana moved 9.8%; Nevada moved 7.7% and flipped to McCain (from 49.3% to 57%); Virginia moved 7.9%, also flipping to McCain (from 47.1% to 55%).

There were no Rasmussen state polls announced this past week. For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 25-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 253.91, Probability of 270 = 21.71%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 278.85 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 71.41% chance of winning.

If you believe that polls over-sample Democrats, then McCain has already passed the 270 electoral vote mark, if the election were held today.

-PJ

[comebacknewt]

Welcome to FR.

If McCain takes NJ, he is headed for an electoral landslide. I don't see one coming, but sure would love to be wrong.

The most likely path to a McCain Presidency IMHO would be a repeat the Bush - Gore map from 2000. That would mean Obama would win Iowa and New Mexico back for the RATs, and McCain would take back New Hampshire (where he is still personally very popular) for the GOP.

[billva]

Actually Ohio and Colorado have had recent polls showing McCain winning. That would make him the winner if all stays the same.

I don't see this all that bad at all.

[BIV]

I am an experienced voter, and, so, I have seen a lot of elections.
Unlike Biden, I was sober for all (most) of them.
I think Mac will win. He will win not because of racism; rather, he will win because he’s not the most radical left winger ever to be nominated by a heretofore major party. He will win despite our “intellectuals” and academics’ white guilt and their oh so deep kumbaya need for catharsis and forgiveness from those who hate our guts anyway.
I think Mac wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania. NH and Colorado and New Mexico, too. The trend is toward Mac now thanks to Palin (despite or because of the recent news cycle), and an increased awareness of Obama’s radical left wing agenda. But he does read well and can pretend to believe his cool speeches.
But, we must not rest. I won’t.
Palin was not chosen to get HRC voters. The msm misses this point entirely.
She was chosen to unite the base. She will do that. In large part, she has done that. Any pumas or ind. that come along are icing on the cake.
Plus, Mac has run, to date, a very, even extremely, effective campaign, so much better than I thought he was capable of doing. Smart, responsive, and humble. Unlike the newly rich michelle and Obama.
O. Hussein has peaked.
McCain has not.
Mac ain’t pretty, but he’s prettier than B. Hussein Obama (PBUH).

[FlingWingFlyer]

I’d like to but I see a good fight coming and to quote another FReeper, “Nothing says U.S.A. like a good fight!” I can sleep when I’m dead.

[Vision Thing]

Consider this: The Obama camp has abandoned (forfeited?) its race between Obama and McCain, and is now trying to regain some traction by framing its race as being between Obama and Palin (losing from the gitgo!). No one seems to know what part, if any, Biden is supposed to be playing.

Yup, team obama has been prepping for weeks to take on McCain and either Pawlenty or Romney. They were completely caught off gaurd with Palin and her success with all the targeted groups. obama's over-reaction and heavy-handedness against her is quite telling: They have no idea what they're doing.

[FastCoyote]

And if Intrade were correct, Romney or Pawlenty would be VP

[meadsjn]

CNN just now - Gergen claiming there is actually two vetting processes, one by the candidate, and one by the media.

The media are way too full of themselves.

[Signalman]

PA going McCain would be welcome but surprising.