[meadsjn]

The media and Dem campaign (if there is any difference) are all still scrambling to catch up after being blind-sided with Palin's selection. In the process, they are stepping all over themselves, and exposing their biases.

All the mud they throw against the wall is flopping backing into their faces.

For once, it appears the party elites and media have to follow instead of push.

[Owen]

Folks,

Don’t try to analyze EVs starting from zero. Start from Bush’s 2004 totals instead.

He won with 286 EVs. Iowa and New Mexico are likely lost and they are 7 and 5, respectively. That would be a 4 EV victory if all other states held constant.

As of now, it looks very much like Colorado is the decisive state. Note that Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes, and lost Pennsylvania by 144,000 votes. Nearly the same margin, so if you’re inclined to think that Ohio was close, don’t discount the chance of flipping Pennsylvania.

But in general, barring big surprises, locking down Colorado and Nevada and holding the line in Ohio wins this election.