Gas shortage plagues the Southeast

AP ^ | Mon Sep 29, 8:07 PM ET | By KATE BRUMBACK, Associated Press Writer

[Babsig]

Across a section of the South, a hurricane-induced gasoline shortage that was expected to last only a few days is dragging into its third week, and experts say it could persist into mid-October. The Atlanta area has been hit particularly hard, along with Nashville and western North Carolina

[Liberty Valance]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2094777/posts
Refineries back online; gasoline demand, price might drop into October [refineries mentioned <100%]

[Florida native]

The AJ&Constitution online stated the shortage was due to the shutdown of the pipeline between the gulf and Atlanta prior to IKE...and the ensuing topping off of gas tanks didn't help.

Yesterday, the pipeline went online running at 100%, but it will take another 1-2 weeks for gas supplies to be replenished in the region.

[scfirewall]

I agree with this, Moore and his inflammatory Price Gouging tactics, have helped prolong this.

[deport]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/refining_text.htm

Source: International Energy Annual, Table 3.6, and Petroleum Supply Annual

[thackney]

I don't know what the net balance is from expansion mentioned here.

The expansions and upgrades have increased the amount of refined product (gasoline and diesel) production including the shutting down of older, smaller and less efficient refineries.

When looking at the throughput, do not just look at total through the refineries. We have come a great ways in producing more of the desired products like gasoline and diesel and less of the low value products like asphalt.

Click the charts for the supporting data.

[thackney]

The industry is almost at an end to increasing existing units throughput.

That claim has no basis in fact. Some of the refinery expansions going on today are larger than the average existing refineries.

That does not mean we wouldn't benefit from new facilities. But I'm in the refinery upgrade and expansion business these days. We are far from maxed out.

[McGruff]

I'm ignorant about this subject but can the Strategic oil Reserve be used to relieve this for a short time?

[econjack]

Cool! Thanks!

[deport]

Gasoline Production and Imports (Million Barrels per Day)

Finished Gasoline Production

more data

Four-Week Averages

Year Ago

Week Ending

Year Ago

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

U.S.

9.015

8.830

8.531

8.965

8.398

8.326

7.954

8.722

East Coast (PADD I)

2.178

2.142

2.131

1.854

2.126

2.111

2.093

1.753

Midwest (PADD II)

2.388

2.375

2.407

2.108

2.414

2.270

2.398

2.058

Gulf Coast (PADD III)

2.755

2.612

2.308

3.212

2.193

2.256

1.802

3.152

Rocky Mountain (PADD IV)

0.270

0.269

0.258

0.274

0.253

0.252

0.265

0.257

West Coast (PADD V)

1.425

1.432

1.428

1.517

1.412

1.437

1.396

1.502

Conventional Gasoline Production

more data

Four-Week Averages

Year Ago

Week Ending

Year Ago

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

U.S.

5.823

5.656

5.396

5.813

5.345

5.161

4.875

5.639

East Coast (PADD I)

0.760

0.746

0.739

0.571

0.778

0.723

0.690

0.478

Midwest (PADD II)

2.007

1.992

2.029

1.690

2.050

1.895

2.030

1.641

Gulf Coast (PADD III)

2.291

2.149

1.872

2.809

1.756

1.792

1.431

2.791

Rocky Mountain (PADD IV)

0.270

0.269

0.258

0.274

0.253

0.252

0.265

0.257

West Coast (PADD V)

0.495

0.499

0.498

0.468

0.508

0.499

0.459

0.472

Reformulated Gasoline Production

more data

Four-Week Averages

Year Ago

Week Ending

Year Ago

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

U.S.

3.192

3.175

3.136

3.152

3.053

3.165

3.079

3.083

East Coast (PADD I)

1.417

1.397

1.392

1.283

1.348

1.388

1.403

1.275

Midwest (PADD II)

0.381

0.383

0.378

0.418

0.364

0.375

0.368

0.417

Gulf Coast (PADD III)

0.464

0.463

0.436

0.403

0.437

0.464

0.371

0.361

Rocky Mountain (PADD IV)

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Gasoline Imports

more data

Four-Week Averages

Year Ago

Week Ending

Year Ago

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

09/05/08

09/12/08

09/19/08

09/21/07

Total Gasoline

1.042

1.087

1.048

1.098

1.121

0.977

1.211

1.052

Conventional Gasoline

0.223

0.281

0.326

0.432

0.272

0.342

0.445

0.503

Reformulated Gasoline

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Blending Components

0.819

0.807

0.723

0.667

0.849

0.635

0.766

0.549

West Coast (PADD V)	0.930	0.933	0.930	1.048	0.904	0.938	0.937	1.030

[ctdonath2]

Our region relies on a pipeline that was damaged. They just repaired it, but that doesn’t mean gas instanly flows. It takes about 10 days for gas to flow from the source to us thru the pipe, and having been damaged & emptied that means we have to wait nearly two weeks just for it to turn on _after_ days/weeks of repair.

[Mike Fieschko]

I'm ignorant about this subject but can the Strategic oil Reserve be used to relieve this for a short time?

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't refined product. It's crude. SPR Current Inventory.

Once part of the Reserve is refined, it'll still need to be piped or moved via ship to terminals, and from the terminals to stations via tanker truck. So, the answer is no.

[El Laton Caliente]

I see the FCCU’s as the usual bottleneck. Most of them are running from 30% to 100% above the original design rates. I just don't see getting 50% more production out of revamping the existing FCC units over the next 10 to 20 years. That, IMHO, is going to require new units.

I think expanding many of the single train refineries to dual train would greatly improve market bumps in products also (like the southeast).

[thackney]

I see the FCCU’s as the usual bottleneck. Most of them are running from 30% to 100% above the original design rates.

I agree, new or replacing with larger cracking units are providing the most increases that I have been seeing.

I just don't see getting 50% more production out of revamping the existing FCC units over the next 10 to 20 years.

We don't need 50% more. Our shortfall is much less.

Finished Motor Gasoline Production
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgfrpus24.htm

Finished Motor Gasoline Product Supplied (includes imports)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgfupus24.htm

The shortfall we make up with imports is far less than what we produce ourselves. A 10% increase would almost complete meet our demand.

U.S. Total Gasoline Imports
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgtimus24.htm

[NautiNurse]

Yes, those links provide helpful info. Thanks.

[thackney]

It takes about 10 days for gas to flow from the source to us thru the pipe, and having been damaged & emptied that means we have to wait nearly two weeks just for it to turn on _after_ days/weeks of repair.

Actually it is not that bad. The pipeline was not damaged. There was a fire at a terminal station that fed the pipeline.

Fire shuts Kinder Morgan Pasadena, Texas oil terminal {gasoline, diesel}
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2089332/posts

The pipeline was not emptied of product. It was setting nearly full without flowing. Colonial is already making deliveries. Product is pushed through the pipeline with other product, it is not siphoned out.

Colonial Back at Pre-Hurricane Flow-Rates
http://www.colpipe.com/press_release/pr_93.asp

Colonial Pipeline today achieved the same flow-rates for gasoline deliveries as the pipeline managed before Hurricanes Gustav and Ike hit the Gulf Coast refining region earlier this month.

After each of the hurricanes, Colonial’s pipeline quickly returned to full capability. However, supply shortages nonetheless occurred as a result of damage and shutdowns suffered by Louisiana and Texas oil refineries impacted by the hurricanes.

The refineries’ reduced output has resulted in market shortages and gas lines in many markets served by pipeline systems in the Southeast. Colonial is making every effort to support its shippers as they try to restore market stability.

The Colonial Pipeline system begins in Houston and crosses the South and East before terminating at the New York harbor. Colonial is a common carrier, meaning it does not own the fuels it transports but delivers them at the direction of its customers.

Deliveries within specific, local markets are determined by the terminal operators Colonial serves.

[safisoft]

Topping off is not socialist -- it doesn't have a philosophy. It's just a reaction to circumstances.

Blaming the true shortage on "topping off" or "hording" is a socialist answer that defies the laws of supply and demand. This is not a "topping off" problem, or a consumer reaction problem - it is a SUPPLY problem. Period.

[Old Professer]

Which would allow a less than scrupulous station owner to just bag the regular and high test nozzles on all pumps and sell only midgrade (actually regular)?

[thackney]

Which would allow a less than scrupulous station owner to just bag the regular and high test nozzles on all pumps and sell only midgrade (actually regular)?

Only if he got the trucker to deliver regular to the midgrade tank. Mixing is done at the truck loading facility, not at the local retail station.

The local station has at least three color coded points to fill the station tanks. The local facility will have no means of moving product from one tank to another without bringing in separate pumps to feed through the filling nozzles.

[marshmallow]

I'm in Augusta, GA and gas is still in short supply but the good news is that the panic buying has stopped. There's still about the same number of stations with gas but now there are no lines at the pumps. You can panic for only so long, right? Who wants to wait at the gas station every day to top off a 3/4 full tank?

People have realized that gas will still be available although scarce and that life can go on as normal.

[ErnBatavia]

But, still little premium. It took me a week to find prem;

I talked to my bro in Gainesville, GA this morning.....still tough with long lines, and ONLY regular.

Since his car needs premium and his wife uses mid-grade, he's been adding a little octane booster fluid from the auto parts store.

He reported that the lines from Houston are now up and running, but it's a six day trip...and adding the distribution system into the mix, it's his estimate that it'll be a tough go for almost two more weeks.