I have been in the room when flag officers damned-near came to blows over NK strategy. It's a passionate subject in Pacific commands. And you're right, high-brow intellectuals haven't any better idea of what might happen than a casual observer.
I get most nervous when anyone in authority speaks, well as an authority about what North Korea's intentions may or may not be. Bill Richardson comes to mind immediately - what an ultra-moron.
NK's culture is so isolated, so different from ours and even so mutated from South Korea's that it's virtually impossible to predict with any confidence what they'll do about anything at anytime in any place with one exception - Whatever promises they make, you can be 100% confident that they'll eventually break them.
“I get most nervous when anyone in authority speaks, well as an authority about what North Korea’s intentions may or may not be. Bill Richardson comes to mind immediately - what an ultra-moron.”
BAM,,that was a mouthful there. And isnt it funny, of all American politicians, they like Richardson. I bet they bought him off with some female company, some cognac, and some American money they just printed.
Excellent summary.
My year in Korea taught me that I don’t understand the SOUTH Koreans, let alone the north!
I agree.
For now, I believe NK would only start a war in order to prevent a total internal collapse. That is if the power elites in NK see their hold slipping they would start a war in a last ditch effort to maintain their power before they themselves are purged.
In this case North Korea would hit as hard as possible. The artillery aimed a Seoul would cause the most immediate causalities though a full scale invasion would probably be seen by satellite days or weeks before it hit.