Posted on 05/28/2009 5:34:54 PM PDT by xzins
WASHIGTON – It would take the Army time to "shift gears" if it needed to fight against North Korea, Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey said Thursday.
Right now, the Army is focused on the counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, but North Korea’s recent saber rattling has raised the prospect that the Army might be called upon to fight a conventional war.
"I have said publicly for some time that if we had to shift gears, it would probably take us about 90 days or so to shift our gears and to train the folks up that were preparing to go to Iraq and Afghanistan to go someplace else," Casey said after a speech at a Washington think tank.
That doesn’t mean that it would take at least 90 days to send reinforcements to U.S. troops in South Korea, Casey said.
"We would move forces as rapidly as we could get them prepared," he said.
Casey declined to say how fast the Army could mobilize to meet a threat from North Korea, but he stressed the Army is "combat seasoned" and can move quickly.
"The mechanical skills of artillery gunnery and tank gunnery come back very, very quickly," he said. "The harder part is the integration — that really brigade level and above of massing fires and effects in a very constricted period of time as opposed to what you do in a counterinsurgency over a much longer extended period of time."
Looking to the future, Casey said he expects conflicts this century to look a lot like the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Israeli war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Regarding the latter, Casey noted that the key lesson the Israelis learned was that they were too focused on irregular warfare.
"They were working so much in the West Bank and conducting counterinsurgency-like operations that they lost their combined arms skills, the ability to integrate fires in air and tanks and artillery," he said.
The U.S. Army needs to be prepared for the "full spectrum" operations ranging from offensive, defensive and stability operations, he said.
Casey expressed confidence that the U.S. Army can fight and win a conventional war against North Korea given its experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"I’m not afraid of putting this force in the field against anybody," he said.
It’s good that the Army today is much better trained than when Truman sent me to Korea where we were like lambs led to slaughter, according to the Marines.
Dangerous times ahead.
After a few million die in Seoul, the rules would change dramatically.
Yes, trying to second guess crazy people leads to huge mistakes and dead troops. Take Hitler as a case in point. It was argued and believed that Hitler would never try to invade Russia as long as he was fighting in the west. It would be suicide and everyone but Hitler knew it. He invaded anyway because he was Bat Sh** crazy and he was saner than the midget running NK.
“Tie up your forces dealing with numerous foreign battles in different locations — and viola! this produces the need for a domestic Civilian National Security Force!”
Ok, you just really creeped me out,,i can see that.
Their anti-tank ammunition failed to detonate and bounced off the tanks like “popcorn.” The Communist tanks had no opposition. The troops of Task Force Smith did a Herculean feat in opposing thousands of Communist troops, but they did not anticipate a prolonged fight. The troops (about 550) had been told they would be back in Japan in time for the week-end regimental party.Eighth Army was nearly shoved from Pusan back to the sea. Nonetheless, it was a gruesome war that lasted into the summer of 1953 and terminated only by a truce. It would be difficult to predict how long a conflict would last if it again erupts, however, unless the North Korean tactics have been modified, they would continue to use ground troops as cannon fodder, with no concern for casualties.
Because China now has a whole lot more to lose than a miserable basket case like North Korea. Rigth now they ahve to take steps to keep the North Korean economic refugees from flooding across the border. And if North Korea is the aggressor then I don't see China lifting a finger.
I would hope that you are right, and you very well could be. I’ll have to admit to thinking that China might no want to, but would be sucked in none the less, to some extent.
Take care.
I hope the current POTUS grows a set before it goes that far. However, I have my doubts. ;-)
You can watch dozens of Three Stooges shorts on Youtube.
I have been in the room when flag officers damned-near came to blows over NK strategy. It's a passionate subject in Pacific commands. And you're right, high-brow intellectuals haven't any better idea of what might happen than a casual observer.
I get most nervous when anyone in authority speaks, well as an authority about what North Korea's intentions may or may not be. Bill Richardson comes to mind immediately - what an ultra-moron.
NK's culture is so isolated, so different from ours and even so mutated from South Korea's that it's virtually impossible to predict with any confidence what they'll do about anything at anytime in any place with one exception - Whatever promises they make, you can be 100% confident that they'll eventually break them.
Now that idea of a big part of the north being occupied by China ala east germany, while not ever taking on US forces? I *can* see that. And i think they are rational. I keep hearin about suicidal North Korea and Iran. Their leaders are more than suicidal for their soldiers, but they are only about remaining in despotic power at home. This requires an external threat, but not an actual war.
A war means the end of him. He has not the slightest intent to fight Obama. He simply knows he can make a threat, and the shiploads of rice, oil and cash will soon start arriving.
He has played this game since the late 80s. He always ramps it up when a democrat is in. I love that story that Bill Clinton was hours away from a full-on air raid on North Korea until Carter made that deal. SURE you were slick willie. You were JUST about to launch a conventional preemptive attack on the north.
Just my take on it,,and im not married to it, but i think (and hope!)im right.
Let me run something by you.
If Russia or China were to have problems with the northern state of Mexico and either had a legitimate beef with it, would we just stand by and watch military action on our border? I believe we would, but I’ll tell you it would be very hard to do.
I think we would probably be inclined to think China over-reacted at some point. I don’t think China would find it any easier.
On the other hand, they might secretly think we actually did them a favor. I just don’t know.
One factor you may be overlooking is the South Korean armed forces, one of the best in Asia. They'll be fighting for their own country. Any North Korean invasion will be bloody, especially for civilians, incredibly violent, and short lived. North Korea doesn't have the horsepower for an extended war and they don't have the arms to defeat the South Korean army. I just don't see China backing the aggressor in a war that will kill tens of thousand of civilians and ultimately end in North Korea's defeat.
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Good post potlatch
Thats another BIG point. South Korea saw what Germany went through to reunify with the East. It was long, hard, and extremely expensive. Even worse in Korea, the North has no infrasructure at all.
The South Koreans want to reunify for emotional reasons, familes, etc,,but they shudder when they think of the reality.
“I get most nervous when anyone in authority speaks, well as an authority about what North Korea’s intentions may or may not be. Bill Richardson comes to mind immediately - what an ultra-moron.”
BAM,,that was a mouthful there. And isnt it funny, of all American politicians, they like Richardson. I bet they bought him off with some female company, some cognac, and some American money they just printed.
Excellent summary.
My year in Korea taught me that I don’t understand the SOUTH Koreans, let alone the north!
I agree.
For now, I believe NK would only start a war in order to prevent a total internal collapse. That is if the power elites in NK see their hold slipping they would start a war in a last ditch effort to maintain their power before they themselves are purged.
In this case North Korea would hit as hard as possible. The artillery aimed a Seoul would cause the most immediate causalities though a full scale invasion would probably be seen by satellite days or weeks before it hit.
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